Winter Storm in Arkansas, December 22, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1120 AM CST WED DEC 22 2004

.DISCUSSION...
NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP WORKING INTO THE FA FROM THE SW ATTM. HOURLY
ANALYSIS OF SFC TEMPS INDC FREEZING LINE HAS MADE PROGRESS SWD OVR
ERN AND CNTRL AR...WHERE TERRAIN IS FLATTER. MEANWHILE...LEADING
EDGE OF FREEZING TEMPS HAS HELD IN PLACE OVER THE AR RVR VALLEY.

EFFECT OF EVAP COOLING CONT TO RESULT IN A MIXTURE OF PRECIP OVR
CNTRL AND WRN AR. CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW EXPECTED IN LOCATIONS WHERE
BEST CAA CONTS THIS AFTN. MIXED PRECIP EXPECTED OVR CNTRL AND
EVENTUALLY SRN AR AS SFC TEMPS SLOLY FALL. EXTENDED WINTER STORM
WARNING FURTHER SWD ACRS W-CNTRL AR INTO THIS EVENING WHERE TERRAIN
FEATURES WL HELP TO ENHANCE SNOW AMOUNTS. REST OF HEADLINES LEFT AS
IS.

MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS HAVE ADVECTED INTO NRN AR THIS MRNG. THIS MAY
HOLD DOWN PRECIP AMOUNTS ACRS THAT AREA THIS AFTN AND EVENING.

UPDATED ZNS AND GRIDS ALREADY OUT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST WED DEC 22 2004

THE MAIN TOPIC THIS MORNING IS THE WINTER STORM WHICH IS WELL
UNDERWAY. THE LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR GALVESTON TEXAS WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. MUCH COLDER AIR WAS NORTH OF THIS
TROUGH. MONTICELLO AND ELDORADO CONTINUE TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR.
THE COLD AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA TODAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL
BE FALLING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED
ABUNDANT RAINFALL OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH INCREASING
COVERAGE IN THE SOUTHWEST.

WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS THROUGH 9 PM TONIGHT.
THE COLD AIR WILL BE SHALLOW INITIALLY AS IT MOVES IN. THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN BEFORE THE RAIN CHANGES OVER TO
SNOW. THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDING SHOWS A WARM LAYER JUST ABOVE THE
GROUND THROUGH 18Z FOR KLZK. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
PREVIOUS RUNS WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO
SNOW IN THE NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING...AND 18-20Z IN THE LITTLE ROCK
METRO AREA. 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTH...1-2
INCHES IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS... AND LESS THAN AN INCH IN THE SOUTH.
NORTH WINDS WILL GUST TO 30 MPH ALSO THIS AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH
100 PERCENT POPS TODAY...THEN DECREASE POPS THIS EVENING. ALL PRECIP
SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE STATE BY 12Z THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER MOVES IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE HOWEVER.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 900 PM
CST WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES ARZ003>007...ARZ012>016...ARZ021...
ARZ024>025.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 900 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES
ARZ022>023...ARZ030>031...ARZ037>038...ARZ040>041.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 900 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES
ARZ022>023...ARZ030>034...ARZ037>047...ARZ052>054.
&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CST WED DEC 22 2004

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-231100-
BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-
DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-
IZARD-JACKSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-MARION-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-
OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-
VAN BUREN-WHITE-YELL-ARKANSAS-JEFFERSON-LONOKE-MONROE-PRAIRIE-
PULASKI-WOODRUFF-
500 AM CST WED DEC 22 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A MIXTURE OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS
WILL BECOME ALL SNOW THIS MORNING. IN CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE
STATE...WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE NOTED...BUT PRECIPITATION WILL
TRANSITION INTO A WINTRY MIX BY NOONTIME. MAINLY RAIN WILL OCCUR IN
THE SOUTH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING IN NORTH AND
CENTRAL SECTIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON...WIND CHILL INDICES WILL BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. WIND CHILLS MAY ACTUALLY FALL BELOW
ZERO TONIGHT IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES.

BY THIS EVENING...LIGHT SNOW WILL BE FALLING STATEWIDE. THE SNOW
WILL CONTINUE BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT.

AS FAR AS ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW TOTALS MAY REACH 6 INCHES IN SOME
AREAS NORTH OF CLARKSVILLE AND NEWPORT THROUGH THIS EVENING. IN
GENERAL...3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF ARKANSAS...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE CENTRAL THIRD. LESS
THAN AN INCH OF SNOW WILL FALL FARTHER SOUTH.

A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN POSTED ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE
STATE. THE WARNING AND ADVISORY AREAS COVER SPOTS NORTH OF
ARKADELPHIA...LITTLE ROCK AND CLARENDON.

TRAVEL IN THE WARNING AND ADVISORY AREAS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS DUE
TO SNOW COVER AND ICE. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE AROUND
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES...WHICH WILL BE EXPOSED TO BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES. A WARM GROUND MAY ACTUALLY IMPROVE CONDITIONS ALONG
ROADWAYS...WITH MELTING OCCURRING.

ACROSS THE SOUTH...BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES MAY BECOME SNOW OR ICE
COVERED THIS EVENING AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW THE FREEZING MARK.
EVEN IN AREAS WHERE SNOW DOES NOT OCCUR...WATER ON BRIDGES WILL
FREEZE...WITH PATCHES OF ICE FORMING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE STORM SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WINTER WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY
WILL DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW...BRINGING DRY BUT VERY COLD WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL.

ON FRIDAY MORNING AND ON THE MORNING OF CHRISTMAS DAY...READINGS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS. IN AREAS OF THE NORTH THAT GET ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL...LOW
TEMPERATURES OF ZERO OR LESS MAY BE POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY NOT REACH FREEZING AGAIN UNTIL CHRISTMAS DAY. PEOPLE MAY WANT
TO CONSIDER RUNNING A STREAM OF WATER IN THEIR HOMES TO PROTECT
PIPES FROM FREEZING.

LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE
WITH A SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT BRINGING MORE PACIFIC AIR AND A
WARMING TREND. A STORM SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE BY TUESDAY FROM THE WEST
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

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