Winter Storm in Arkansas, December 22 to 23, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
300 AM CST WED DEC 22 2004

.DISCUSSION...

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS INVERTED SFC TROUGH STRETCHING FROM PARIS
TO WEST HELENA. ARCTIC AIR IS MOVING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE TROUGH
WITH A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION. SO FAR PRECIPITATION HAS
REMAINED MAINLY LIQUID BUT EXPECT THAT TO CHANGE QUICKLY OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. POPULAR BLUFF AND WEST PLAINS HAVE BEEN REPORTING
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. TROUGH WITH AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD DURING
THE DAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ARCTIC AIR FURTHER INTO THE
MIDSOUTH DURING THE DAY. EXPECT THE EXTREME NE ARKANSAS COUNTIES TO
BEGIN THE CHANGEOVER PRETTY SOON TO SNOW. EXPECT THE BOOTHEEL TO JBR
AREA TO SEE FZRA/IP MIXTURE BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AROUND
MIDDAY. FURTHER SOUTH...EXPECT RA TO CHANGE TO FZRA BY MID MORNING
CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. ALTHOUGH A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET
MAY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR MORE IS POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA FROM MARIANNA TO
PARIS...INCLUDING THE MEMPHIS METRO AREA. NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA SHOULD SEE THINGS TAPERING OFF BY AFTERNOON FOR A BRIEF
BREAK BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION.

TONIGHT...THE AREA FROM CLARKSDALE TO SAVANNAH WILL BEGIN TO SEE THE
CHANGEOVER TO FZRA/IP DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS EVENTUALLY
CHANGING OVER TO IP/SN. ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION.
NORTHWEST OF THIS AREA SHOULD SEE MAINLY ALL SNOW OR A SNOW/SLEET
MIXTURE THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS FOR
EXTREME NE AR...4 TO 8 INCHES.  FOR THE BOOTHEEL TO JBR AREA...2 TO
4 INCHES OF SNOW AND LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF ICE.  FOR MEMPHIS
METRO...EASTERN ARKANSAS...AND MOST OF NW TN...GREATER THAN A
QUARTER INCH OF ICE AND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SLEET/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
FOR NW MISSISSIPPI AND REST OF WEST TENNESSEE...LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH OF ICE AND LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION. FOR
TUP AREA SOUTHEASTWARD...NO ICE OR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. ALL
PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM.

ON THURSDAY...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CWA AND WILL
KEEP DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS AROUND THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH THE
BEGINNING PART OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM UP
FROM THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS EASTWARD.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE MIDSOUTH ON TUESDAY
BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. HOWEVER
CONDITIONS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN RAIN.

&&

.MEG...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM
THURSDAY.
MS...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM TUNICA TO MARSHALL COUNTIES FROM THIS
MORNING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CLARKSDALE TO IUKA FROM 6PM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO 6AM THURSDAY
MO...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM THURSDAY.
TN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY
FOR SOMERVILLE TO PARIS NORTHWESTWARD...INCLUDING MEMPHIS
METRO.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM SELMER TO LEXINGTON SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
THIS MORNING TO 6AM THURSDAY.

&&

KRS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
500 AM CST WED DEC 22 2004

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-231100-
ALCORN-BENTON-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DECATUR-DESOTO-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE(AR)-LEE(MS)-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-
POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-
TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-
YALOBUSHA-
500 AM CST WED DEC 22 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...WEST TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.

.DAY ONE...

A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN POSTED FOR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND MOST OF WEST TENNESSEE THROUGH 6 AM TONIGHT.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH
MISSISSIPPI AND THE REST OF WEST TENNESSEE FROM 4 PM TO 6 AM
TONIGHT. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET AND
THEN EVENTUALLY TO SNOW STARTING IN THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE
MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING. BY MIDNIGHT...THIS CHANGEOVER OF
PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE MADE IT ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH.
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS
EXTREME NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW AND LESS THAN A
QUARTER INCH OF ICE WILL FALL ACROSS AN AREA STRETCHING FROM TRUMANN
ARKANSAS TO CARUTHERSVILLE MISSOURI. GREATER THAN A QUARTER INCH OF
ICE AND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS MOST OF WEST
TENNESSEE...THE REST OF EASTERN ARKANSAS...AND EXTREME NORTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI. THIS INCLUDES THE MEMPHIS METROPOLITAN AREA. LESS THAN
A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE WITH UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW WILL FALL IN
AN AREA STRETCHING FROM CLARKSDALE MISSISSIPPI TO SAVANNAH
TENNESSEE. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION WILL FALL FOR AREAS FROM TUPELO
MISSISSIPPI TO ABERDEEN MISSISSIPPI. ANY ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATION
BOOTHEEL CAN CAUSING HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.

IN ADDITION...THE ARCTIC AIRMASS AND BRISK WINDS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

AN ARCTIC AIRMASS AND BRISK WINDS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SINGLE TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW DIGIT WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH THURSDAY
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

KRS