Hail in Arizona, September 25, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 PM MST SAT SEP 25 2004

SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE...ALONG
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF TUCSON THIS WEEKEND
WITH SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE RIM. A DEEPER TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND
MOVE INLAND DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING
INCREASING CLOUDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A FEW SHOWERS TO
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE RIM COUNTRY AND EXTENDING INTO NEW MEXICO
WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS MAINLY THE THREE EASTERN ZONES OF
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY ALSO NOTED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF EXTREME EASTERN PIMA AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES AS WELL.
ALL OF THE ACTIVITY IS MOVING TO THE EAST. SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE
PRODUCING RESPECTABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO
RAINFALL ESTIMATES. THE STORMS PRODUCING THE HEAVIEST RAIN ARE
OCCURRING IN COCHISE COUNTY NEAR THE CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS WITH
ESTIMATES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...BUT NOT CONFIDENT THAT THESE
AMOUNTS ARE REALISTIC. AT ANY RATE THESE STORMS ARE IN THE PROCESS
OF MOVING EAST INTO NEW MEXICO.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY FAIR AGREEMENT IN MOVING THE SHORTWAVE WHICH IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY. THE ASSOCIATED VORT LOBE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING MOVES IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE RIDGE AXIS IS A DEVELOPING UPPER
LOW WHICH IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST AND THEN DIVE DOWN THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE SWINGING THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO OCCUR THIS EVENING
WITH THE AXIS OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST WEST THE TUCSON AREA. AS
THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST MOST OF THE STORMS ON SUNDAY
SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO AREAS EAST OF A LINE FROM SAN CARLOS TO
REDINGTON TO FORT HUACHUCA. BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOW GRADE POPS
WILL BE IN ORDER FOR ONCE AGAIN EXTREME EASTERN ZONES. HOWEVER...
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW BY MIDWEEK AND CONTINUING INTO
THE WEEKEND SMALL POPS WILL BE WARRANTED FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH RAIN CHANCES A BIT HIGHER TOWARD THE NEW MEXICO BORDER AND
ALSO ALONG THE RIM COUNTRY OF GREENLEE COUNTY.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN STATUS QUO THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT
WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH DAYTIME HIGHS WILL DECREASE TO THE MID
80S BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

MOLLERE