Arizona, 2004Flash Flood in Arizona, November 7, 2004
November 7, 2004 · NWS PSR · 1 event in 1 county or zone
1 flash flood, as filed by the National Weather Service.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
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- Tropical storms and surge
- Floods
- Wind
- Hail
- Winter weather
- Heat and drought
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- Fire, smoke and dust
- Marine and coastal
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- Deaths
- 0
- Injuries
- 0
- Property damage
- None recorded
- Crop damage
- None recorded
- Events
- 1
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Phoenix, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 6, 9:55 PM MST, 19 hours 35 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Nov 6, 9:55 PM MST, 19 hours 35 minutes before
AZZ020>028-CAZ030>033-071045-
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
955 PM MST SAT NOV 6 2004
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
FORECAST DISCUSSION
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE
EAST TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY...THEN TRACK ACROSS ARIZONA
AND SOUTHERN UTAH ON MONDAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...COOLER TEMPERATURES...AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. ON MONDAY...THE BEST CHANCE FOR LINGERING
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA.
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL END BY TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES EAST AND NORTH OF ARIZONA. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING SOME
RECOVERY OF TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF THIS COMING WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
PHOENIX AND GILA BEND TOPPED OUT AT 87 DEGREES TODAY...WHICH TURNED
OUT TO BE THE WARMEST MAX TEMPS IN ARIZONA AS WELL AS IN THE ENTIRE
UNITED STATES. MOST SOUTHWEST DESERT LOCALES TOPPED OUT IN THE 80-85
DEGREE RANGE. WESTERN EDGE OF A PERSISTENT CONVEYOR BELT OF MOIST
TROPICAL AIR (650-300 HPA LAYER) WAS JUST EAST OF PHOENIX MOST OF
THE DAY COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SPRINKLES HELD MAX
TEMP TO ONLY 62 DEGREES AT GLOBE. LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
MOISTENED NOTICEABLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ DURING THE AFTERNOON
...WITH GPS-IPW RISING FROM ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH BETWEEN 11 AM
AND 5 PM. SURFACE DEW POINT VALUES ROSE AROUND 10 DEG F DURING THIS
TIME...AND WERE IN THE LOW-MID 40S THIS EVENING...10-15 F HIGHER
THAN FRIDAY EVENING. STRONG UPPER LOW WAS STILL SPINNING OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THIS EVENING...WHILE A WELL-DEFINED UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE /JET STREAK...MARKED BY THE TRAILING EDGE OF
MID-UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME NEAR 23N 120W...WAS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 30 KT. WEST EDGE OF THIS MOISTURE
PLUME WAS SHIFTING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN
AZ...WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ALREADY OVER MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ AS OF 9 PM MST...WHILE CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PERSISTED OVER
FAR SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN HALF OF LA PAZ COUNTY. GIVEN
INCREASE IN MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER...AS WELL AS INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...WOULD EXPECT NOTICEABLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL AZ COMPARED TO LAST NIGHTS READINGS. COULD SEE A FEW
MORNING SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES OVER SW/SCNTRL AZ MAINLY AS A
CONSEQUENCE OF THE MOISTURE INCREASE.
UPPER LOW FORECAST TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY TO THE EAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HRS...BE SITUATED NEAR SAN DIEGO BY 11 PM MST SUNDAY...THEN
ACCELERATE AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST...REACHING SOUTHEAST UTAH BY 11 PM
MONDAY. TO BE SURE...THE LOW WILL STILL BE WELL WEST OF AZ ON
SUNDAY...HOWEVER...UPWARD MOTION...AS WELL AS LOW-MID LEVEL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE...WILL INCREASE NOTICEABLY OVER SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS AS AFOREMENTIONED
SUBTROPICAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...WITH STRONGEST UVV FORECAST OVER SW AND W-CNTRL AZ LATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. ETA/GFS MODELS FORECASTS 100 KT 300-200
HPA JET STREAK TO BE NEAR YUMA BY 5 PM SUNDAY...BE OVER WEST-CENTRAL
AZ BY 5 AM MONDAY...THEN PROPAGATE ACROSS NORTHERN AZ MONDAY. MOST
FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF UVV...INSTABILITY...AND MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS EXPECTED OVER NW/W-CNTRL AND S-CNTRL AZ AS WELL AS
FAR SE NV LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE TIME/AREA
WHERE PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST. ON MONDAY...THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTH CENTRAL AZ APPEARS TO HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS...AS IT IS FORECAST TO BE IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
UPPER JET...WHILE DRY SLOT PUNCHES INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ FROM THE
SOUTH. BEST CHANCE FOR DYNAMICALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS OVER
S-CNTRL DESERT WOULD APPEAR TO OCCUR MONDAY MORNING.
MAY BUMP TONIGHTS LOW TEMPS UP A BIT OVER S-CNTRL AZ. ALSO...
MIDSHIFT MAY WANT TO CONSIDER HITTING POPS (AND MAYBE QPF) A BIT
HARDER OVER W-CNTRL AND S-CNTRL AZ...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTN-SUNDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...INHERITED FCST PACKAGE APPEARS TO BE IN DECENT
SHAPE.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
DG
Flash Flood, La Paz
- When
- November 7, 5:30 PM MST to 7:45 PM MST
- Where
- La Paz County, Bouse
- Reported by
- TRAINED SPOTTER
- Coordinates
- 33.729, -113.981 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
Heavy rain, up to 2 inches in 2 hours, was reported in Bouse. State highway 72 was closed due to flooding.
- Flash Flood
- Flooding that begins within six hours of the rain that causes it, or of a dam or levee failure or ice jam release, often with deadly speed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5426298.