Blizzard and Heavy Snow in Alaska, November 9 to 10, 2004

Name: Blizzard and Heavy Snow in Alaska, November 9 to 10, 2004
Start: 2004-11-09T08:00
End: 2004-11-10T14:00
Location: Alaska

November 9 to 10, 2004 · NWS AFC · 3 events in 3 counties and zones

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 3

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS AFC wrote it up.

A strong low over the Alaska Peninsula had a front extending from it across Bristol Bay to southern Prince William Sound. The strong push of moisture into south central Alaska resulted in heavy snow along the Alaska Range with accumulations ranging from 8 to 25 inches. The strong pressure gradient produced high winds along the Chugach mountains. The strong wind with moderate snowfall in Thompson Pass resulted in a blizzard through the pass Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning. This strong gradient also resulted in the typical high winds along the upper hillside of Anchorage and along Turnagain Arm. Winds peaked at 76 mph at Glenn Alps before the sensor quit reporting peak winds, and peaked at 85 mph at McHugh Creek along Turnagain Arm.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 9, 5:00 AM AST, 3 hours earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 9, 5:00 AM AST, 3 hours before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST TUE NOV 9 2004

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH 12Z WED REGARDING THE POSITION
OF THE LOW MOVING INTO THE EASTERN BERING. HOWEVER THE MESOETA AND
THE UKMET KEEP THE LOW SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER THAN THE GFS. THE GFS IS
INTENT ON REALLY WRAPPING UP THIS LOW AND CUTTING IT OFF WHILE THE
REST OF THE MODELS ARE FORMING MORE OF A TRIPLE POINT EXTENSION
ACROSS THE AKPENN SOUTH OF THE GULF. THEREFORE BELIEVE THE WEAKER
SOLUTION IS THE MORE LIKELY OF THE TWO SINCE THE ENERGY IN THIS LOW
IS SO SPREAD OUT ALREADY AND WEAKER WINDS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING THAN
THE GFS FORECAST.

AFTER 12Z THE MODELS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY. THE MODELS ALL BEGIN TO
FORM A STRONG LOW NEAR 40N..HOWEVER WITH NO FRONTAL TROUGH IMPEDING
ITS MOVEMENT NORTH THE GFS PUSHES THE NEW LOW FARTHER NORTH MUCH MORE
QUICKLY AND DEVELOPS IT MORE INTENSELY THAN ANY OF THE OTHER MODELS.
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE GFS HAS COMPLETELY DISSIPATED THE LOW NOW
MOVING INTO THE BERING SEA IN FAVOR OF THIS INTENSE NEW SYSTEM. THE
GFS HAS NOT BEEN HANDLING THE LINGERING LOWS NEAR THE Y-K DELTA WELL
FOR THE PAST WEEK WHILE THE UKMET AND THE MESOETA HAVE. SO AM
INCLINED TO GO WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MESOETA AND THE UKMET
BEYOND 24 HRS. A SECONDARY LOW WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP NEAR KODIAK
ISLAND SOMETIME TOMORROW BUT THE MAIN CORE OF ENERGY WILL LINGER NEAR
THE DELTA. A NEW LOW WILL FORM TO THE SOUTH TOMORROW BUT WILL REMAIN
FAR SOUTH OF THE GULF AND NOT DEEPEN ANY FURTHER THAN 980 MB. WILL
NEED TO WATCH HOW THIS ALL PANS OUT IN LATER MODEL RUNS AND
REEVALUATE THEN IF NECESSARY. IF THE GFS SOLUTION DOES HOLD IT WILL
MEAN SOME NASTY WINDS FOR THE WESTERN GULF AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY
THURSDAY.

OTHER THAN THE PROBLEMS WITH THE MODELS THE MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN
TODAY AND TOMORROW ARE THE HEAVY PRECIP AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS CURRENT SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHWEST. AS SOUTHCENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST AK START TO ENTER THE SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL CHANGE MOST OF THE PRECIP OVER TO RAIN EXCEPT OVER
2500 FT. THIS CREATES THE POTENTIAL FOR TWO PROBLEMS...BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS THROUGH THOMPSON PASS AND FLOODING IN AREAS OF LOWER
ELEVATION THAT ALREADY RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AND WARMED UP
QUICKLY. THE LOW HAS A VERY LONG SOUTHERLY FETCH THAT IS BRINGING A
FEW INCHES OF QPF WITH IT. WILL NEED TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE WATCH ON
THIS TODAY AND POSSIBLY ISSUE SOME FLOOD WARNINGS ALONG THE KENAI
TONIGHT OR TOMORROW.

WILL CANCEL BOTH BLIZZARD WARNINGS IN THE ALEUTIANS AS THE WARM
SECTOR IS MUCH MORE PRONOUNCED AND WIDER ON SATELLITE. THIS SHOULD
CHANGE ALL PRECIP TO RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 131.
MARINE...STORMS 12A GALES 2B 2C 2C4 3A 3B 5A 5B 6A 6B 8 12A1 12B 14
15.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RNW NOV 09

Event by event

1 heavy snow, 1 high wind, 1 blizzard. Local standard time, as filed.

Heavy Snow, Susitna Valley

When: November 9, 8:00 AM AST to November 10, 2:00 PM AST
Where: Susitna Valley forecast zone
Reported by: AWOS,ASOS,MESONET,ETC

High Wind, Anchorage Muni to Bird Creek

When: November 9, 2:45 PM AST to 11:00 PM AST
Where: Anchorage Muni to Bird Creek forecast zone
Measured: 74 kt (85 mph) measured gust
Reported by: AWOS,ASOS,MESONET,ETC

Blizzard, Nern P.W. Snd

When: November 9, 4:00 PM AST to November 10, 8:00 AM AST
Where: Nern P.W. Snd forecast zone
Reported by: AWOS,ASOS,MESONET,ETC

What these are

Heavy Snow: Snowfall reaching the local warning threshold without the other hazards of a winter storm.
High Wind: Sustained non-thunderstorm winds of 40 mph or more for an hour, or gusts of 58 mph or more.
Blizzard: Sustained winds or frequent gusts of 35 mph or more with falling or blowing snow that cuts visibility below a quarter mile for three hours or longer.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Alaska in 2004 Every state in 2004 This day in weather history Warnings in Alaska, November 2004

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5426801, 5426802, 5426800.