Blizzard in Alaska, November 9, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHWEST ALASKA
100 PM AST TUE NOV 9 2004

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR COLD BAY WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTH.
STRONG JET ORIENTED NORTH SOUTH FROM 30N ALONG 155W ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 168W. THIS IS BRINGING SOME COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST ALASKA. STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY PRECIP OVER MUCH OF SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA THROUGH TOMORROW WITH THE CURRENT WARM FRONT AND
NUMEROUS JET MAXES SURGING NORTH TO ALASKA. HAVE ISSUED A NUMBER OF
ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS TO ACCOMMODATE. SNOW EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER
ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND MOST PARTS INLAND TONIGHT. MAY
ENCOUNTER SOME PONDING OF WATER DUE TO AMOUNT OF SNOW OVER THE PAST
WEEK AHEAD OF THE RAIN AND WARMING TEMPS. ONLY AREAS TO REMAIN ALL
SNOW ARE THE UPPER SUSITNA AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA. EXPECT ADVISORY
AMOUNTS TO REACH INTO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. SOME IMPACT OF FREEZING
RAIN IN AREAS. GETTING REPORTS IN BRISTOL BAY AND THIS AREA MAY REACH
INTO THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY TONIGHT. BRISTOL BAY TO TURN ALL RAIN
BY THIS EVENING. SNOW TO REMAIN IN OTHER AREAS OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA
SINCE THE TROUGH REMAINS ALONG 160W.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN BERING. WITH THE LOW IN THE
BRISTOL BAY AREA...STRONG GRADIENT IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING.
THIS IS BRINGING STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS. MOST EVIDENT THROUGH
GAPS IN TERRAIN AND NEAR 167W DUE TO THE PACKING OF THE GRADIENT.
THESE WINDS TO RELAX INTO TOMORROW AS THE LOW FILLS.

THE LOW WEAKENS IN BRISTOL BAY AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING
INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH STEALS THE ENERGY AND DEVELOPS A LOW BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT NEAR 40N 155W. THE LOW IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA CONTINUES
TO LOSE STRENGTH AS THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN PACIFIC PICK UP STRENGTH.
RIDGE IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA IS PUSHED EAST AS A LOW WORKS OFF
EASTERN RUSSIA. LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC TO ROTATE NORTH INTO THE
GULF FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A RIDGE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST
THURSDAY. THE CURRENT LOW IN BRISTOL BAY WILL NOT FULLY BE GONE BUT
THE WEAKENING WILL RELAX THE WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE GULF LOW TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND IT THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE LOW ENTERING THE WESTERN BERING SEA THURSDAY NIGHT TO
SWING THROUGH THE BERING SEA FRIDAY BUT BE TURNED NORTH BY THE STRONG
LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. SECONDARY WAVE ROTATING BEHIND THE LOW IN
THE BERING TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH THE GULF OF ALASKA LOW EAST.
PATTERN BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AT THIS TIME WITH A COUPLE SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS WORKING THROUGH THE BERING AND THE MAINLAND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

OTHER THREATS BESIDE THE IMMEDIATE IS WITH THE BERING LOW LATER THIS
WEEK BRINGING A GOOD WESTERLY PUSH OF WAVE HEIGHT TO THE COAST.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 131
         HEAVY SNOW WARNING 145
         HIGH WIND WARNING 101
MARINE...STORM 12A 15
         GALE 2B 2C 2C4 3A 3B 3C 4 5A 5B 6A 6B 8 12A1 12B 14
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JN NOV 04