Flood in Alaska, May 16 to 22, 2004

NORTH ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
230 PM ADT SUN MAY 16 2004

.DISCUSSION...

.ALOFT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
ALASKA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME WEST AND
DIMINISH TUE AS THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE HIGH BUILDS NORTH
OVER THE INTERIOR. LOW PRESSURE NEAR 59N/180W WILL MOVE SLOWLY
NORTH AND ON WED AFTERNOON SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER THE WRANGELL
ISLAND AREA. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST OVER
THE ARCTIC THROUGH FRI AND WILL FLATTEN A RIDGE OVER NORTHERN
ALASKA WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM THE BUILDING HIGH IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA.

.SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. AT 4AM ADT MON THE LOW WILL BE 990 MB 300 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
GAMBELL WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING TO POINT LAY THEN
SOUTHEAST TO BETTLES THEN SOUTH BETWEEN TANANA AND FAIRBANKS TO
THE GULF OF ALASKA. AT 4PM ADT MON THE LOW WILL BE 993 MB 350
MILES SOUTHWEST OF GAMBELL WITH THE OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING FROM
NORTH OF BARROW TO DEADHORSE TO ARCTIC VILLAGE TO BEAVER CREEK AND
TO THE GULF. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE MON NIGHT. THE LOW WILL
REMAIN STATIONARY AND WEAKEN TO 998 MB BY 4AM ADT TUE. AT 4PM ADT
TUE THE LOW WILL BE 1006 MB.

.NORTH SLOPE...EAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST MON AFTERNOON AND
MON NIGHT AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES NORTH OVER THE AREA AND LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTH TO EASTERN RUSSIA. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY WEST OF BARROW.

.WEST COAST...SHOWERS MAY CHANGE TO A MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW TONIGHT AS COLDER AIR WRAPPING AROUND A BERING SEA LOW MOVES
NORTH. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BERING SEA LOW AND
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL CAUSE
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS WITH POSSIBLE ADVISORIES FOR THE NORTHERN
BERING SEA AND CHUKCHI SEA MON THROUGH TUE. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
WED AND THU AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH OF THE CHUKCHI SEA.

.INTERIOR...SOUTH FLOW OVER THE ALASKA RANGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN
TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN RUSSIA WEAKENS. ON THU SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH
FLOW OVER THE RIDGE COULD BRING SOME NEEDED SHOWERS FOR THE
CENTRAL TO EASTERN INTERIOR.

.HYDRO...FLOOD WATCH FOR THE DALTON HIGHWAY FROM PUMP STATION
         THREE TO ICE CUT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY DUE TO MELTING SNOW
         AND ICE PILED ALONG THE HIGHWAY NEAR THE SAG RIVER.
         ELSEWHERE...NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES.

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES
            ZONE 220 YUKON FLATS AND SURROUNDING UPLANDS.
            ZONE 221 CENTRAL INTERIOR.
            ZONE 222 MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY.
            ZONE 223 DELTANA AND TANANA FLATS.
            ZONE 225 DENALI.
            ZONE 226 EASTERN ALASKA RANGE.

.AFG...WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
            ZONE 214 CAPE ROMANZOF.
            ZONE 223 DELTANA AND TANANA FLATS.
            ZONE 225 DENALI.
            ZONE 226 EASTERN ALASKA RANGE.
         DENSE FOG ADVISORY ZONE 213 SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AREA 9B DALL POINT TO WALES.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AREA 9A NORTON SOUND.

DA MAY 04