Heavy Snow in Wyoming, February 6, 2003

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
923 AM MST THU FEB 6 2003

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...

...UPDATE TO ZFP...

PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...SOME BLUE SKY IS BEGINNING TO APPEAR IN SOME LOCATIONS AS
THE CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO BREAKUP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LOW CLOUDS
STILL HOLDING ON IN THE EAST WITH PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS SLIDING
SOUTH FROM NORTHEAST MONTANA. THEREFORE...WILL UPDATE GRIDS TO REFLECT
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF AND MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
THE FAR EAST. CONDITIONS WILL BE MUCH CALMER TODAY AS COMPARED TO THE
PAST 4 OR 5 DAYS. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
ALONG WITH AN ELONGATED TROUGH THAT STRETCHES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL COMBINE TO BRING AN ANTI-CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE STATE.
700MB AND 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY COLD TODAY WITH
JUST A SLIGHT MODERATION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
TODAY...AND DUE TO LACK OF MIXING...SNOW COVER AND HIGH SUN REFLECTIVITY
...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM TOO MUCH TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY
REACHING THE UPPER TEENS IN THE EXTREME EAST WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S
ELSEWHERE. SOME LIGHT SNOW BEING REPORTED IN SHERIDAN AT THE MOMENT SO
WILL ADD SLIGHT POPS TO THAT AREA FOR THE MORNING HOURS. REMAINDER OF
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.  HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...
MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS PACKAGE CENTER ON TRACK OF
SHORTWAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND TEMPERATURES. SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO
MOVE THROUGH EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND LINGER THROUGH
SUNDAY. EXTENDED ETA IS COMPLETELY DRY WITH THIS WHERE LATEST GFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW AN AMPLE MOISTURE SUPPLY AND PRECIP FOR ALMOST THE
ENTIRE CWA. LATEST TREND IN THE MODELS HAS BEEN TO PUSH THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP MORE EAST WITH EACH RUN
LEAVING THE EASTERN ZONES WITH THE BIGGEST THREAT THROUGH SUNDAY. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS AND COVERAGE TO REFLECT THIS THINKING FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT DO NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE POPS FOR THIS WAVE AT THIS TIME. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND SHOULD HELP TO KEEP TEMPS MORE
ON THE COOL SIDE THAN GOING FORECAST INDICATES. MODELS ARE CONTINUING
COOLER TREND WITH EACH RUN AS WELL SO WILL BE TWEAKING TEMPERATURES DOWN
A LITTLE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED TO LINE UP BETTER WITH THIS SOLUTION.
MACZKO

    TDY FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 025 011/035 021/033 019/036 021/038 020/038 020/043
    0/B 00/E    22/S    03/S    30/E    00/E    00/B
LVM 023 003/030 017/031 016/034 019/036 021/039 021/042
    0/B 00/E    22/S    00/E    00/E    00/E    00/B
HDN 024 012/036 020/036 019/038 017/040 019/040 018/044
    0/B 00/E    22/S    03/S    30/E    00/E    00/B
MLS 020 009/030 018/029 013/030 017/030 016/029 013/035
    0/E 00/E    33/S    33/S    30/E    00/E    00/B
4BQ 019 009/032 017/030 015/031 016/035 016/030 012/034
    0/E 00/E    33/S    23/S    30/E    00/E    00/B
BHK 015 005/027 018/024 008/022 015/024 014/026 011/033
    0/E 00/E    33/S    33/S    30/E    00/E    00/B
SHR 020 013/031 017/030 013/034 018/036 018/038 017/039
    2/J 00/E    22/S    03/S    30/E    00/E    00/B

.BYZ...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

MTZ028>042-056>058-WYZ098-099-071200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
500 AM MST THU FEB 6 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL...SOUTHEAST
MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

WCJIN-WYNW-WYNE