Flooding in Washington, October 16 to 18, 2003

Name: Flooding in Washington, October 16 to 18, 2003
Start: 2003-10-16T14:00
End: 2003-10-18T16:00
Location: Washington

October 16 to 18, 2003 · NWS SEW · 7 events in 7 counties and zones

From Oct 16th to the 18th, flooding occurred on the Stillaguamish, Bogachiel, Skagit, Nooksack, Elwha, Calawah, and Skokomish Rivers. Record crests were set on the Bogachiel and Calawah.

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: $3.5 million
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 7

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS SEW wrote it up.

From Oct 16th to the 18th, flooding occurred on the Stillaguamish, Bogachiel, Skagit, Nooksack, Elwha, Calawah, and Skokomish Rivers. Record crests were set on the Bogachiel and Calawah. A state of emergency was declared in Skagit, Whatcom and Clallam counties. Dozens of homes damaged and roads closed.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Seattle, WA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 16, 8:40 AM PST, 5 hours 20 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 16, 8:40 AM PST, 5 hours 20 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
940 AM PDT THU OCT 16 2003

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...
BRINGING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AS THE FREEZING LEVEL CLIMBS TO AROUND
11000 FEET. THIS WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND AS A
STRONG SOUTHWEST JET STREAM DIRECTS MOIST WARM AIR ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK FOR A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A STRONG WARM FRONT CONTINUED TO APPROACH THE COAST. S OR SELY WINDS
HAVE RESPONDED TO THE APPROACHING FRONT...WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH
LIKELY TO OCCUR ON THE COAST. WENT ON AHEAD INCREASED WIND SPEEDS...
PARTICULARLY GUSTS...FOR MOST ZONES TODAY. EXPECT WINDS TO DECREASE
SOMEWHAT LATER TODAY OR EARLY THIS EVENING.

MEANWHILE...A MILD...VERY MOIST SW FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE CWA
THRU AT LEAST FRI...RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AT A NUMBER OF
LOCATIONS. 850 MB TRANSPORT WINDS OF 50 KNOTS OR GREATER COMBINED
WITH FREEZING LEVELS OF 10-11 KFT WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL ON THE SW FACING SLOPES OF THE OLYMPICS AND NRN CASCADES.
THUS FAR...WELL OVER 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER THE S AND W
FACING SLOPES OF THE OLYMPICS...WITH RAIN CONTINUING. THUS IT IS
LIKELY THAT FLOOD WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED LATER TODAY...AND THE
CURRENT FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE EXPANDED. STAY TUNED.

&&

.SEW...FLOOD WATCH FOR THE OLYMPICS AND NRN CASCADES RIVERS.
      .GALE WARNINGS COAST AND INLAND WATERS.

.KATX...VCP11/CSR21A...OPERATIONAL.

&&

Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 16, 9:31 AM PST, 4 hours 29 minutes before

WAZ001>018-171400-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1031 AM PDT THU OCT 16 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS
OF WESTERN WASHINGTON

.DAY ONE... TODAY

...A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IN MASON
COUNTY...

...FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE RIVERS IN KING...SNOHOMISH...
GRAYS HARBOR...JEFFERSON...CLALLAM...MASON...SKAGIT...AND WHATCOM
COUNTIES...

...GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AND INLAND WATERS
TODAY...

...GALES WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST TONIGHT...

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

...FLOOD WARNING FOR THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IN MASON COUNTY...

...FLOOD WATCHES FOR THE RIVERS IN KING...SNOHOMISH...GRAYS
HARBOR...JEFFERSON...CLALLAM...MASON...SKAGIT...AND WHATCOM
COUNTIES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Oct 16, 12:06 PM PST, 1 hour 54 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
106 PM PDT THU OCT 16 2003

TIME(PDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

100 PM     SHELTON AREA              WA   HEAVY RAIN
10/16/03   MASON                          3.20 INCHES FELL IN 24 HOURS
                                          ENDING AT 1 PM PDT.

Local storm report, Oct 16, 1:30 PM PST, 30 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
230 PM PDT THU OCT 16 2003

TIME(PDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

230 PM     LILLIWAUP                 WA   HEAVY RAIN
10/16/03   MASON                          4.00 INCHES FELL IN 22
                                          HOURS ENDING AT 2:30 PM
                                          PDT.

Local storm report, Oct 16, 1:55 PM PST, 5 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
255 PM PDT THU OCT 16 2003

TIME(PDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

250 PM     ANACORTES - SKAGIT BAY    WA   HIGH WIND
10/16/03   SKAGIT                         GUSTS 40 TO 46 MPH
                                          AREA POWER LINES DOWN

Event by event

7 flood. Local standard time, as filed.

Flood, Northwest Interior

When: October 16, 2:00 PM PST to October 18, 4:00 PM PST
Where: Northwest Interior forecast zone
Property damage: $3.5 million
Reported by: OFFICIAL NWS OBS.

Flood, Northern Casade Foothills

When: October 16, 2:00 PM PST to October 18, 4:00 PM PST
Where: Northern Casade Foothills forecast zone
Reported by: OFFICIAL NWS OBS.

Flood, Hood Canal/Kitsap Peninsula

When: October 16, 2:00 PM PST to October 18, 4:00 PM PST
Where: Hood Canal/Kitsap Peninsula forecast zone
Reported by: OFFICIAL NWS OBS.

Flood, Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca

When: October 16, 2:00 PM PST to October 18, 4:00 PM PST
Where: Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca forecast zone
Reported by: OFFICIAL NWS OBS.

Flood, Everett and Vicinity

When: October 16, 2:00 PM PST to October 18, 4:00 PM PST
Where: Everett and Vicinity forecast zone
Reported by: OFFICIAL NWS OBS.

Flood, North Coast

When: October 16, 2:00 PM PST to October 18, 4:00 PM PST
Where: North Coast forecast zone
Reported by: OFFICIAL NWS OBS.

Flood, Western Whatcom

When: October 16, 2:00 PM PST to October 18, 4:00 PM PST
Where: Western Whatcom forecast zone
Reported by: OFFICIAL NWS OBS.

What these are

Flood: Flooding that develops more slowly than a flash flood: rivers leaving their banks, or water standing over land for an extended time.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Washington in 2003 Every state in 2003 This day in weather history Warnings in Washington, October 2003

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-30. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5371245, 5371246, 5371247, 5371248, 5371249, 5371250, 5371251.