Texas, 2003

Flood in Texas, October 16, 2003

October 16, 2003 · NWS CRP · 1 event in 1 county or zone

1 flood, as filed by the National Weather Service.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

  • Tornadoes
  • Tropical storms and surge
  • Floods
  • Wind
  • Hail
  • Winter weather
  • Heat and drought
  • Cold
  • Fire, smoke and dust
  • Marine and coastal
  • Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Corpus Christi, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 16, 2:45 AM CST, 1 hour 45 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 16, 2:45 AM CST, 1 hour 45 minutes before
SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
345 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2003

SHORT TERM (TODAY THRU FRIDAY)...MOISTURE GRADUALLY RETURNING ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CWA AND ESP INTO DEEP S TX. EARLY THIS A.M. MSAS
REVEALS COASTAL/INVERTED TROF POSITIONED OFF LOWER TX COAST INTO
CRPS SRN OFFSHORE WATERS. WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH
MOISTURE RETURN IS RESULTING IN A FEW SHOWERS FROM ERN KENNEDY
COUNTY INTO CRP OFFSHORE WATERS. ETA AND GFS BOTH INDICATE TROF
WEAKENING TODAY AND MOVING SOUTH WITH LLVL FLOW ACROSS S TX AND
WATERS BECOMING SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER ETA IS FASTER THAN
GFS WITH DOING THIS. FEEL WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ISOL RWS OVER OUR
SRN COASTAL WATERS DURING THE MORNING WITH A FEW CROSSING PADRE
ISLAND INTO BAFFIN BAY AND THE LAGUNA MADRE BEFORE DISSIPATING.
P/C DAY IN STORE WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S INLAND TO LOWER 80S
COAST. SHALLOW MOISTURE IN PLACE TONIGHT COMBINED WITH LIGHT SFC
WINDS AND VERY WEAK SW FLOW OFF THE DECK WILL PROMOTE FOG
DEVELOPMENT. SHOULD SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF S TX TONIGHT...MORE PATCHY FAR WEST. NEXT COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH N-CNTRL TX OVERNIGHT. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE SIMILAR
TO LAST FRONT ON TUES IN THAT WE WILL SEE WINDS SWING TO THE N FRI
MORNING ACROSS S TX WITH PRE-FRNTL TROF. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO
RGN DURING THE DAY ALONG WITH CLEARING AND WE SHOULD SEE WARM TEMPS.
HOWEVER WILL NOT GO NEAR THE MET WHICH IS FORECASTING TEMPS 90-95...
RATHER A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT THE MAV IS INDICATING. MAIN
PUSH WILL ARRIVE LATE FRI AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WITH REGARDS
TO PRECIP CHANCES...INITIALLY MOISTURE LOOKS DESCENT ACROSS SRN CWA
THU NIGHT...BUT GETS SHOVED SOUTH FRI MORNING. DO NOT FEEL THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE OR MOISTURE BY TIME MAIN PUSH ARRIVES TO
WARRANT MENTION OF PRECIP IN ZFP ATTM. MAY SEE AND ISOL RW OR TWO
WHEN FRONT REACHES SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...AS WAS THE CASE WITH
THE LAST FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA...EXPECT SURGE
OF COOL AIR TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET
FRIDAY EVENING.  MODELS INDICATE LESS COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THIS
CYCLE WITH H850 TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO DROP ONLY TO AROUND +15
...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S SATURDAY MORNING.  WILL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK AS BROAD RIDGE PATTERN EVOLVES OVER THE
ROCKIES AND CENTRAL U.S. MRF PROGS REINFORCING COLD FRONT INTO SOUTH
TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE BETTER COLD ADEVCTION WITH
THIS FRONT ALTHOUGH APPEARS BRUNT OF COLD AIR WILL STAY NORTHEAST
OF AREA.  FOR MARINE...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND COLD FRONT
FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED OVER THE GULF WHICH MAY ALLOW TO SEAS
BRIEFLY APPROACH SCA CRITERIA.  WILL KEEP MAXIMUM WAVES NEAR 6 FEET
FOR NOW.

CRP BB 084/070 084/062 078 00-00
VCT BB 084/067 084/055 079 00-00
LRD BB 086/068 085/058 081 00-00

.CRP...NONE.

JR/76...SHORT-TERM
AP/72...LONG-TERM
Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 15, 5:00 AM CST, 23 hours 30 minutes before
GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-161100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
600 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL
RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS AND THE ADJACENT GULF
WATERS ON FRIDAY.  NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH FRONT.
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY
BE REQUIRED DURING THAT TIME. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

JR/AP

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.

Flood, McMullen

When
October 16, 4:30 AM CST
Where
McMullen forecast zone
Reported by
AWOS,ASOS,MESONET,ETC
Coordinates
28.353, -98.568 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Heavy rainfall over South Texas on the 11th and 12th led to river flooding.The Nueces River 11 miles south of Tilden rose above flood stage on the 14th, crested at 23.18 feet on the 16th, and fell below flood stage on the 29th. (flood stage 14 feet)

What these are

Flood
Flooding that develops more slowly than a flash flood: rivers leaving their banks, or water standing over land for an extended time.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Texas in 2003Every state in 2003This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, October 2003

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5371310.