Winter Storm in Washington, November 17 to 20, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
830 AM PST MON NOV 17 2003

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG WEST FLOW OVER AREA CONTINUES.  NEXT LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND TONIGHT AS STRONG WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS
AREA.  STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT STALLS OVER NORTHERN WASHINGTON
TONIGHT AS NEXT LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS.  LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO
VANCOUVER ISLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH COLD FRONT REMAINING OVER
NORTHERN WASHINGTON.  STRONG MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER AREA
SOUTH OF COLD FRONT.   COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT MOVING
THROUGH AREA WEDNESDAY.  COLD MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASES OVER
AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...ETA/GFS CONTINUE CLOSE SOLUTION AND SEEM TO BE TRACKING
WELL.  SHOWERY WEATHER TODAY WITH MOIST W FLOW MOSTLY CASCADES AND
COAST RANGE TURN TO RAIN LATE AS NEXT LOW PRES AND WARM FRONT
APPROACH.  LOW PRES MOVES INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND TONIGHT AS WARM FRONT
MOVES ACROSS AREA.   HWW WARNING LOOKS GOOD WILL UP TO 65 MPH GUSTS.
CONCERNED ABOUT CENTRAL COAST WILL LEAVE ALONE FOR NOW AS MAIN THREAT
LATER TONIGHT AND TUE.  INITIAL BURST OF WIND TONIGHT MAY BACK OFF
LATE AS LOW MOVES ASHORE.  COLD FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER N
WASHINGTON OVERNIGHT AND TUE.  HOWEVER STRONG SW FLOW WITH HIGH PW
KEEPS PRECIPITATION HAMMERING INTO COAST...COAST MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHERN CASCADES OVERNIGHT AND TUE.  COLD FRONT SLIDES S TUE NIGHT
BRINGING HEAVY PRECIPITATION WITH IT.  WINDS BACK OFF AS LOW PRES
MOVES WELL INLAND BUT HEAVY PRECIPITATION LIKELY COAST AND MOUNTAINS
BY LATER TUE NIGHT AND SPREADS INTO INLAND VALLEYS WED MORNING.
FRONT PUSHES S OF AREA DURING WED BRINING COOLER BUT CONTINUED MOIST
FLOW INTO AREA.  SNOW BECOMES MAIN THREAT FOR CASCADES WED NIGHT AND
THU AS FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVES MOVES ACROSS AREA THU.  SNOW LEVELS
WELL BELOW PASS LEVELS BY THU.  KOSOVITZ
&&

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN EVOLVING INTO CARVING OUT
A BROADER TROUGH THAT HANGS OVER THE PAC NW INTO SAT BEFORE SHIFTING
EAST.  THIS WILL LEAVE THE AREA IN A GENERAL SHOWERY PATTERN WITH
FREEZING LEVELS DOWN TO 2500-3000 FEET BY FRI.  THIS IS MUCH
DIFFERENT FROM PREVIOUS RUNS SO WITH LOW CONFIDENCE WILL KEEP CURRENT
FCST AND AWAIT MORE CONSISTENT MODEL RUNS.
&&

PRELIMINARY POINT POPS...
AST 9+9++ PDX 68689 SLE 68689 EUG 55479
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.WA/OR...GALE WARNING CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE.
         HIGH SURF ADVISORY NORTH AND CENTRAL OREGON AND SOUTH
         WASHINGTON COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT.
         HIGH WIND WARNING SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON COAST.

&&

ORZ001>013-WAZ019>023-039-040-181430-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OREGON
630 AM PST MON NOV 17 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE NORTH OREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON
COASTS TONIGHT...
..GALE WARNING FOR THE NORTH AND CENTRAL OREGON COASTAL WATERS AND
THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COASTAL WATERS...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
A PACIFIC FRONT MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY MAY BRING STORM
FORCE WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG WINDS
AT THE COAST...AND ALSO SNOW ADVISORY AMOUNTS IN THE CASCADES
WEDNESDAY.

HEAVY RAIN MAY DEVELOP AT THE NORTH OREGON COAST AND SOUTH WASHINGTON
COAST WEDNESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVES OVER THAT
AREA...THIS COULD BRING RAPID RISES TO SMALL STREAMS THERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.