High Wind in Washington, January 1 to 2, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PST WED JAN 1 2003

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE RAIN AND WINDY
CONDITIONS TO WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF
THURSDAY...BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE RAIN AND WIND LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. YET ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND WIND WILL
ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY...AND THE WET PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

.DISCUSSION...THE WARM FRONT WENT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...PRODUCING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST AND NORTH
INTERIOR AS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...NO HIGH WIND. THE CLOSEST WAS A
SPOTTER IN THE SAN JUANS WITH A GUST TO 52 MPH AROUND 130 PM. ON THE
COAST DESTRUCTION ISLAND HAD SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT AT 2 PM.

THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT IS STILL SPINNING UP AND AND
THE GFS LOOKS PRETTY GOOD. THE LOW SHOULD HIT THE CHARLOTTES AROUND
18Z WITH THE COLD FRONT REACHING THE WASHINGTON COAST PROBABLY AROUND
15Z-16Z. EXPECT SE GRADIENTS TO COME BACK UP AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES TONIGHT...SO WILL EXTEND THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE COAST
AND N INTERIOR THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY PRODUCE SIMILAR
WIND SPEEDS AS THE WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT PRESSURE FALLS
OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH
BOOST TO GET INTO MARGINAL HIGH WIND RANGE IN SOME SPOTS. WILL HOLD
WITH THE WATCH TO ALLOW THE SWING/MID SHIFT TO MONITOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW AND THE RESULTING GRADIENTS.

HAVE ISSUED A HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR THE CASCADES AND PASSES THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...ESSENTIALLY AFTER THE COLD FRONT GOES
THROUGH. MOUNTAIN OBS AND ROAD REPORTS INDICATE MODERATE SNOW IN THE
PASSES WITH 0.10-0.14 OF WATER EACH HOUR. EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE
PASSES NEAR OR BELOW THE SNOW LEVEL SO REALLY DONT EXPECT ANY
CHANGEOVER SOON. SNOQUALMIE MAY GET A MIX LATER TONIGHT.

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE RIVERS ON THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA.
THE SKOKOMISH IS THE BEST CANDIDATE...AND RFC FORECASTS SAY 16.2 FT
AT 12Z. SWING SHIFT WILL PROBABLY UPGRADE TO A WARNING THIS EVENING.

TIDES ON THE COAST ARE VERY HIGH THIS WEEK...AND WITH A TYPICAL
LARGE...BUT NOT GIANT SWELL...HAVE HAD TO GO WITH A MINOR TIDAL
OVERFLOW FOR THE COAST THURSDAY. WITH TIDES SO HIGH...WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION FOR PUGET SOUND ON FRIDAY AS WELL.

GFS CONTINUES THE PARADE OF SYSTEMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY...WITH THREE MORE LOWS CURVING UP OFFSHORE INTO COASTAL
B.C...AND THE FRONTS MOVING THROUGH WASHINGTON DURING THAT PERIOD.
MILD WET WINDY AT TIMES IS A GOOD DESCRIPTION.

.IN THE EXTENDED...THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BUILD A FLAT RIDGE
ALONG THE COAST FROM MONDAY ON. THERE HAS BEEN SOME WAFFLING SO THERE
IS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHETHER THE BAROCLINIC BAND WILL
BE NORTH OF WASHINGTON OVER OVER US. WILL CONTINUE THE BROADBRUSH
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR NOW. WEDNESDAY PROG FROM GFS BRINGS A VERY COLD
TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA WITH -10C AT 850 DOWN OVER PUGET SOUND. MUCH
TOO EARLY TO PLACE MUCH CREEDENCE ON THIS DESPITE DESIRES OF LOCAL
SNOW LOVERS. KAM
UIL +++8 SEA +++8 OLM +++8

.SEW...GALE WARNING COAST...ENTRANCES TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA
       ...ADMIRALTY INLET...AND CAMANO ISLAND TO POINT ROBERTS.
      .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL STRAIT AND PUGET SOUND AND HOOD
       CANAL.
      .HIGH WIND WATCH COAST AND NORTH INTERIOR.
      .HEAVY SNOW WARNING CASCADES.
      .FLOOD WATCH FOR RIVERS ON THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA.

.KATX...VCP21/CSR21...OPERATIONAL.

WAZ001>018-021300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
500 AM PST WED JAN 1 2003

...A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH AND CENTRAL
WASHINGTON COAST AND THE NORTH INTERIOR OF WESTERN WASHINGTON FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE RIVERS ON THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA FOR THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS
OF WESTERN WASHINGTON

.DAY ONE... TODAY

A VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE COASTAL
WATERS AND MOST OF THE INLAND WATERS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM COULD ALSO CAUSE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ALONG
THE COAST AND IN THE NORTH INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ADDITIONAL FRONTS WILL AFFECT WESTERN WASHINGTON LATE THURSDAY AND
LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE
MARINE AREAS. HEAVY RAIN OVER THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA COULD CAUSE THE
SKOKOMISH AND OTHER RIVERS THERE TO FLOOD BY THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

WAC055-020037-

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
137 PM PST WED JAN 01 2003

TIME(PST)  CITY LOCATION           STATE   EVENT/SPOTTER/REMARKS
           COUNTY LOCATION

130 PM     7 SW FRIDAY HARBOR         WA   WIND
01/01/03   SAN JUAN                        SAN JUAN 30
                                           WIND GUSTING TO 52 MPH

WAC027-020443-

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
543 PM PST WED JAN 01 2003

TIME(PST)  CITY LOCATION           STATE   EVENT/SPOTTER/REMARKS
           COUNTY LOCATION

500 PM     5 SE COSMOPOLIS            WA   HEAVY RAIN
01/01/03   GRAYS HARBOR                    GRAYS HARBOR 6
                                           2.05 INCHES SINCE 9 AM.
                                           STILL RAINING.