Hail and Damaging Winds in Virginia, August 5, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
300 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2003

SHORT-TERM (TONIGHT-WED)

TONIGHT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS S/W TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ATTM. THIS IS RESULTING IN RENEWD CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSSS THE WRN PART OF OUR CWA. OTHER SHRAS ARE
OBSERVED ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY OVER THE FAR NERN PORTION OF OUR
CWA. 18Z IAD SOUNDING SHOWS INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL WITH LI OF -2
AND CAPE OF 711 J/KG. SHEAR IS ALSO WEAK. THINK ANY SVR SHOULD
REMAIN WELL SOUTH IN NC. MAIN THREAT IS LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH ANY
SLOW MOVING STORMS. AFTER STORMS DISSIPATE TONIGHT EXPECT FOG TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY OUT TO THE WEST GIVEN WET GROUND AND
LIGHT WINDS.

WED...ISOLD TSRA STILL POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON UNDER CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING.

ROSA

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY):
MODLES HINT THAT THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVR THE EASTERN US
BY DAY 7. OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WI THE RIDGE
OVR THE ROCKIES...TROF JUST TO OUR WEST OVER THE GREAT LAKES THRU
THE OHIO VALLEY...AND ANOTHER RIDGE OVR THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO FEED
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...SHORTWAVES...AND
DAY TIME HEATING WILL CONTINUE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH DAY SEVEN. NO MAJOR CHGS TO CURRNT EXTNDED
FORECAST. ND

.LWX...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...SVR TSTM WATCH UNTIL 7PM EDT FOR ZONES 25...36-38...50 AND 56.
WV...NONE.

DCZ001-MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ021-025>031-036>042-
050>057-WVZ048>055-061030-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MARYLAND WEST OF THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND EAST OF GARRETT COUNTY...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...NORTHERN
VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY...AND THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE.
LARGE HAIL IS THE DOMINATE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE THREAT WILL SHIFT TO HEAVY RAIN. THE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM INTO CLUSTERS PROVIDING
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING. IF THE SYSTEM SLOWS BY A FEW HOURS...CENTRAL VIRGINIA MAY
EXPERIENCE MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING...DUE TO A MORE SATURATED SOIL
WHEN COMPARED TO AREAS FURTHER NORTH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ROSA

DCZ001-MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ021-025>031-036>042-
050>057-WVZ048>055-052200-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1050 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2003

...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...MARYLAND...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...AND WASHINGTON DC. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE DOMINATE THREAT.

THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO FORM INTO CLUSTERS BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. THESE CLUSTERS OF STORMS MAY PRODUCE TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS...CAUSING LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS. HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DELAYS DURING THE EVENING RUSH
HOUR ACROSS THE WASHINGTON DC AND BALTIMORE METRO AREAS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

ROSA

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/ER/LWX