Winter Storm in Vermont, December 26, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1000 PM EST THU DEC 25 2003

.UPDATED DISCUSSION...
WRAPARD SNOWS BEGAN BY MID-AFTN AND BEST FETCH OF DEEP MOISTURE
COMING OVER THE TOP FM QUEBEC INTO NW VT...INCLDG VLY LOCALES AND
HAVE THUS UPGRADED TO ADV FOR WRN CHITTENDEN/ERN ADDISON AND REST OF
NC/NE VT THAT HAD NO HEADLINES. IN THE MEANTIME...PART 2 OF FVRBL
ORAGRAPHIC NW SLOPE EVENT HAS REQUIRED ME TO UPGRADE ADV TO WRNG FOR
ERN CHITTENDEN.

NRN NY 1-3/2-4...ADV AREAS 4-8 AND WRNG AREAS 6-12 WITH LCLLY
HIER. PNSBTV ALREADY ISSUED BUT NEW REPORT OF 5 IN UNDERHILL.

SLW

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
...CHRISTMAS IS ABOUT OVER BUT THE SNOW IS JUST NOW BEGINNING...

FINALLY...THE BIG CLSD UPR LOW THAT HAS BEEN DRIFTING TOWARD US FROM
THE LOWER LAKES IS PRODUCING AN IMPORTANT SNOWFALL...RIGHT OVER OUR
AREA

ONE IMPT VORT MAX IS PIVOTING AROUND THE UPR LOW AND IS PRODUCING A
NEW H7 AND H8 CLSD LOW CENTER WHICH MAY SIT SNTRY OVRNGT IN N-CNTRL
AND NWRN VT WHILE THE H5 CENTER SLIPS BY JUST TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH
SRN VT. STEADY OVRNGT SNOW IN NRN VT WILL RESULT...PRODUCING 2 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW.

THEN FRIDAY...ONCE THE SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICAL AND PRODUCES AN
INSTANT OCCLN OVR WRN ME...LOTS OF MID LVL WRM ADVECTION AND MSTR
ADVECTION FROM QUEBEC WILL SUSTAIN WIDESPREAD SNOW...WITH MAJOR
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT ON THE NRN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS.  ANOTHER
2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW LKLY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS THRU ALL OF NRN VT.
MOST FAVORED UPSLOPE IN THE NRN GREENS WILL LKLY SEE STORM TOTALS
GRTR THAN ONE FOOT...WITH UP TO TWO FEET POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY
OF JAY PEAK.  18Z MESOETA DOING A GREAT JOB OF DEPICTING THE ENTIRE
SCENARIO.

EXPECT TRANQUIL WEATHER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH LARGE DIURNAL TEMP
SWINGS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND FRESH SNOWCOVER.

.LONG TERM...
FOR THE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD.  HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST
LATE SUNDAY AS WE ENTER THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  MRF AND MRF ENSEMBLES
SHOW CONFIDENCE IN THE NEXT 500 HPA TROUGH RIDING INTO THE EAST
COAST RIDGE.  MORE OF A PROGRESSIVE...OPEN WAVE THAN THIS LAST
SYSTEM.  VORT MAX ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF TROUGH IN SOUTHERN STREAM
WILL SWEEP ACROSS REGION MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A
COLD FRONT ARRIVES ABOUT THE SAME TIME AS THE PRECIP. SLOWED DOWN
TIMING OF PRECIP ARRIVAL TO MONDAY NIGHT...AND ALSO SHORTENED AMOUNT
OF TIME FOR FREEZING RAIN. COLDER AIR AT ALL LEVELS SHOULD ARRIVE
QUICKLY BEHIND FRONT...WITH A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. FREEZING RAIN
WOULD ALSO BE MINIMIZED BY WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS MONDAY WITH SOME SUN
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

ANOTHER PERIOD OF MILD WEATHER WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN
ELONGATED N/S RIDGE AT THE SURFACE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. CHANGE
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO PUSH OFF PRECIP CHANCES FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT/WED AND REPLACE WITH DRY FORECAST.

FROM ABOUT WEDNESDAY ON ENSEMBLES SHOW MORE UNCERAINTY...SO
CONFIDENCE LOWER FOR THE TIMING OF NEXT PRECIP EVENT MOVING INTO
REGION ON DAY 7. MRF POINTING AT SNOW WITH COLD 1000-500 HPA
THICKNESS AND  850 HPA TEMPS BELOW FREEZING THURS. HOWEVER IN FACE
OF SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD HAVE ENOUGH WARM AIR FOR SOME RAIN MIXED IN.

.HYDRO DISCUSSION...
ALLOWED FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE AT NOON. MOST RIVERS CRESTING...EXCEPT
LOWER REACHES OF SLOWEST RESPONDING RIVERS LIKE OTTER CREEK AND
MISSISQUOI. OTTER CREEK AT CENTER RUTLAND AND GREAT CHAZY AT PERRY
MILLS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE EARLIER TODAY AND CRESTING. BOTH SOMEWHAT
SLOW TO RECEDE...AND SHOULD BE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE INTO THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE WITH COLDER TEMPS RUNOFF HAS NEARLY HALTED...ALLOWING
RIVERS TO RECOVER. LOST MOST OF THE EARLY SEASON ICE COVER WITH LAST
NIGHTS RISES...SO FUTURE ICE JAM THREAT GREATLY DIMINISHED UNTIL ICE
RE-FORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WRNG TNGT THRU FRIDAY - VTZ016-017.
     WINTER WX ADVISORY TNGT THRU FRIDAY - VTZ002>008-018.
NY...NONE.

BELL/HANSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
508 AM EST THU DEC 25 2003

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-251206-
CALEDONIA-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN CLINTON-
EASTERN ESSEX-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN RUTLAND-ESSEX-GRAND ISLE-
LAMOILLE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-ORANGE-ORLEANS-
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-
SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-
WESTERN CHITTENDEN-WESTERN CLINTON-WESTERN ESSEX-WESTERN FRANKLIN-
WESTERN RUTLAND-WINDSOR-
517 AM EST THU DEC 25 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:RAIN FROM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVED OVER REGION
HAS MELTED SNOWPACK...WHICH HAS CAUSED RISES IN AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS...WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:SNOWFALL WILL
ACCUMULATE IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN TERRAIN.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.