Winter Storm in Vermont, December 15, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
225 AM EST MON DEC 15 2003

CURRENTLY...VARYING DEGREES OF SNOW INTENSITY ONGOING ACROSS THE FA
OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST PERSISTENT MESOSCALE BAND HAVING SET UP ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS EXTENDING NE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN
VLY. ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR
HAVE BEEN RECORDED. ELSEWHERE...PLENTY OF SNOW AS WELL...THOUGH NOT
QUITE AS INTENSE. NONETHELESS PREVIOUS STORM TOTAL FORECASTS LOOK ON
TRACK WITH AN ESTIMATED 12 OR 13 TO 1 SNOW RATIO NORTH...TO SLIGHTLY
LOWER SOUTH. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO
THE MID 20S AREA WIDE.

TODAY INTO TUE...STRONG COASTAL SYSTEM EXITS QUICKLY INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...SPUR OF 700-300 HPA
VORTICITY STILL PROGGED TO ROTATE ACROSS AREA AROUND 18Z...THUS SNOW
SHOULD CONTINUE...HEAVY AT TIMES THIS MORNING...THEN TAPER TO
SCATTERED SHSN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS COLUMNAR RH/OMEGA LOWER
MARKEDLY. DESPITE LOWER ALPHANUMERIC GUIDANCE...WILL INTRODUCE WINDY
CONDS FROM DACKS SOUTH AND EAST...AS LATEST BUFKIT PROFILES INDICATE
UP TO 35-45KT IN THE BNDRY LYR ACROSS THESE AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DRY ADIABATIC FOR SEVERAL
HOURS. WILL CARRY SCT VLY FLURRIES AND GREEN MTN SHSN THIS
EVENING...THEN PARTIAL CLEARING OVRNT AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS
BUILDS INTO REGION. BRISK EVENING CONDS SHOULD BECOME LT OVRNT...ESP
FROM CHAMPLAIN VLY WEST...AND WILL UNDERCUT GFS MIN GUIDANCE
SLIGHTLY ACROSS N NY ZONES. NICE...ALBEIT SHORT LIVED WX IN STORE
FOR TUESDAY...AS AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS TRAVERSES AREA. TEMPS TO
REBOUND INTO THE 30S AREA WIDE AS WINDS BACK TO SOUTHERLY LATE.

TUE NT INTO THURSDAY...ANOTHER VERY COMPLEX SCENARIO TO DEVELOP
ACROSS REGION LATER TUE EVENING/NT ONWARDS AS DEEP FULL LATITUDE
CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH ADVANCES EASTWARD. INITIAL WAA ASSOC WITH OLD
PRIMARY LOW ACROSS NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SHOULD SPREAD LT MIXED
PRECIP ACROSS MAINLY E VT/N NY OVERNT...WITH -RA ELSEWHERE...AS
TEMPS HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE. STRONG VORT MAX ROUNDING BASE OF
TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN STATES THEN TO INITIATE INTENSE
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG INVOF CAPE HATTERAS DURING WEDNESDAY. PTYPE
ISSUES DIFFICULT AT BEST WED INTO WED NT...AS TRACK AND INTENSITY OF
SYSTEM SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH MID LYR WARMING/MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO
KEEP AREAS FROM CHAMPLAIN VLY EAST MAINLY RAIN. FURTHER
WEST...CLOSER PROXIMITY TO COLDER AIR SHOULD MAINTAIN AT LEAST MIXED
PRECIP MUCH OF DAY...ESP ACROSS NORTHERN SLV NEAR KMSS. FLY IN
OINTMENT MY LIE IN EXISTING SNOWPACK...WITH A POSSIBILITY OF THE LOW
TRACKING SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST CLOSER TO SNOW/NO SNOW
LINE. ON THE OTHER HAND...SOUTHERLY POSITION OF LEADING ANTICYCLONE
SHOULD ALLOW PLENTY OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL WARMING TO OCCUR...ESP
CONSIDERING SYSTEMS STRENGTH...AND WILL STICK CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FCST FOR WED NT/THU TIME FRAME.

THU NT ONWARDS...NO CHANGES HERE...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED WITH DAILY MTN SHSN/VLY FLURRIES...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE FCST AREA BY THIS WEEKEND WITH
MORE GENERAL LT SNOWS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH TODAY...VTZ001>012-
016>019.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...NYZ026>031-
034-035-087.

PUBLIC.....JMG
AVIATION...SLW