Tornado and Flash Flooding in Texas, October 5 to 6, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
245 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2003

.SHORT TERM...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED AT PRESS TIME FROM THE EASTERN NEW
MEXICAN PLAINS SOUTH TO NEAR KHOB...THEN CURVING SOUTHEASTWARD TO
BETWEEN KMAF AND LAMESA...THEN MORE OR LESS EAST ALONG I-20.  THE
FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TRANSLATING NORTH AND WEAKENING AS SURFACE
HEATING AND PRESSURE FALLS TO THE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY ACT
FRONTOLYTICALLY.  TO THE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY HAVE INCREASED...WITH SBCAPES AOA 1200 J/KG AND LIFTED
INDICES AOB -4 C.  UPSTREAM...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS TRANSLATING OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.  THUS
ALL THE PRIMARY INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWFA THIS EVENING.

CONVECTION HAS ALREADY BLOSSOMED OVER THE ELEVATED HEAT SOURCES OF
THE GUADALUPES...DAVIS...AND GLASS MOUNTAINS...WITH ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE SACRAMENTOS.  THE CONVECTION
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CWFA SHOULD TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST AND AFFECT THE
BIG BEND THIS EVENING.  THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO...HOWEVER...HAS A BIT MORE GOING FOR IT GIVEN THE
ORIENTATION OF THE LOW LEVEL THETAE RIDGE AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS.  THUS THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS
EVENING WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWFA.  LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS WEAK...INDEED...THE FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST 700 MB
IS PRETTY ANEMIC.  PRIND THE DOMINANT CONVECTIVE MODE WILL BE OUTFLOW
DOMINANT PULSE MULTICELLS.  AM NOT EXCITED ABOUT ROTATING STORMS
GIVEN THE POOR KINEMATIC SETUP...BUT THERE COULD BE ENOUGH UPDRAFT
PERSISTENCE TO GIN UP HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...PARTICULARLY
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER FAR NORTHERN ZONES.  EXPECT THAT
THE CONVECTION WILL BECOME OUTFLOW FORCED BY SUNSET...WEAKEN...AND
EXIT OUT OF THE CWFA BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

CONCERNING THE SHORT TERM GRIDS...AGREE WITH HPCS PLACEMENT OF QPF
AND HAVE MORE OR LESS FOLLOWED.  PRECIP WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
BE AOA 3 CM OVERNIGHT...AND WHILE THERE IS A HEAVY RAINFALL RATE
POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEY SHOULD
NOT POSE A WIDESPREAD THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF COURSE BEING LOCALIZED FLOODING INVOF POORLY DRAINED AREAS.  HAVE
KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD TONIGHT...RAMPING DOWN TO
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH.  OTHERWISE...INHERITED GRIDS PRETTY
MUCH ON TARGET WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTING NECESSARY.

&&

.LONG TERM...
UPPER LVL LOW MOVG S OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST PROGGED TO CLOSE IN A
HOLDING PATTERN OFF NRN BAJA THRU MID WEEK...AMPLIFYING AN UPPER
LVL RIDGE OVR THE AREA.  FINDING LITTLE JUSTIFICATION IN KEEPING
POPS IN FOR MONDAY...ABSENT ANY TRIGGERS AND W/COMPLETE DISSOLUTION
OF RECENT COLD FRONT.  HOWEVER...E-SE LOW LVL FLOW WILL BRING GULF
MSTR INTO THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY...SHARPENING A PBL MSTR
CONVERGENCE AXIS OMTNS BY LATE AFTERNOON.  BY THEN...H7-H5 LR/S ARE
PROGGED TO BE AROUND 8 DEG C/KM...AND SHORT RANGE MODELS BRING A WEAK
SHORTWAVE INTO SE NM EARLY MON EVENING THAT COULD EXPLOIT THE
SITUATION.  IN ADDITION...PROGGED H85 25+KT LLJ OVR ERN AREAS COULD
KEEP CONVECTION GOING PAST MIDNIGHT.  TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MODELS KEEP ABUNDANT LOW LVL MSTR IN PLACE...PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...
AND CONTINUE TO SEND IMPULSES THROUGH THE RIDGE.  THUS...HAVE NOT
MADE CHANGES W/GOING FCST IN REGARDS TO PRECIP THEN.  THE TAIL-END OF
THE 12Z GFS RUN SUGGESTS THU WILL BE DRY.  FRI AND BEYOND IS STILL
IN QUESTION.  GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TDY THAN 24 HRS
AGO ON THE NEXT TROUGH...BUT NOT BY MUCH...ESPECIALLY ON TIMING.
WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING PRECIP ATTM.  W/REGARDS TO
TEMPS...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS OF NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS THRU THE
EXTENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MAF 62 84 63 81 / 40 00 20 30
CNM 58 85 57 83 / 30 00 20 30
MRF 54 86 56 79 / 20 00 20 30
FST 65 89 66 84 / 30 00 20 30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TX...NONE.
.NM...NONE.

&&

70/44

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-061000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
107 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...AND THE PERMIAN
BASIN AND THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS OF WEST TEXAS.  THIS SLIGHT
RISK IS FOR THAT PART OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS
NORTHEAST OF A CARLSBAD NEW MEXICO...FORT STOCKTON TEXAS...TO
SHEFFIELD TEXAS LINE.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.  FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.  IN ADDITION...RAINFALL RATES OF ONE
TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING OF ARROYOS...
DRAWS...AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS...STORM
SPOTTER GROUPS...AND OTHER INTERESTED CONCERNS SHOULD MONITOR THIS
SITUATION AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN
YOUR AREA.  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED NORTHEAST OF A
CARLSBAD NEW MEXICO...FORT STOCKTON TEXAS...TO SHEFFIELD TEXAS LINE.

.TECHNICAL DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE DISCUSSIONS AND OUTLOOKS FROM THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA FOR PERTINENT INFORMATION.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...AND
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN MIDLAND
CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT http://www.srh.noaa.gov/maf.