Texas, 2003

Flood in Texas, October 15, 2003

October 15, 2003 · NWS CRP · 1 event in 1 county or zone

1 flood, as filed by the National Weather Service.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

  • Tornadoes
  • Tropical storms and surge
  • Floods
  • Wind
  • Hail
  • Winter weather
  • Heat and drought
  • Cold
  • Fire, smoke and dust
  • Marine and coastal
  • Other

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The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Corpus Christi, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 15, 2:30 AM CST, 1 hour 30 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 15, 2:30 AM CST, 1 hour 30 minutes before
SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
330 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2003

SHORT TERM (TODAY THRU THURSDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED IN OVER
CNTRL TX EARLY THIS MORNING. MUCH DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS S TX IN
THE WAKE OF YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT. AFTER A COOL MORNING TEMPS
SHOULD REBOUND NICELY GIVEN DRY AIRMASS...HOWEVER NOT AS WARM AS MET
IS INDICATING. PREFER HIGH TEMPS CLOSER TO MAV GUIDANCE. 11U-3.9U
LOOP SHOWS BKN LOW CLOUDS HANGING AROUND EXTREME SOUTHERN BORDER OF
CRP CWA ALONG WITH SCT MID/HIGH LVL CLOUDS STREAMING OUT OF MEXICO
ACROSS SRN ROW OF COUNTIES. NRN HALF OF CWA SHOULD STAY SUNNY TODAY.
ONLY CONCERN OF THE DAY WILL BE WINDS OVER THE WATERS. WILL NEED TO
KEEP SCA CONDITIONS GOING FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS THIS MORNING GIVEN
WINDS AND SEAS...SCEC FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS. WINDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN BAYS CURRENTLY JUST ABOVE SCEC CRITERIA BUT EXPECT THEM TO
WEAKEN AROUND SUNRISE. LLVL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST INTO SOUTHEAST
U.S. BY 12Z THU. ETA IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN GFS WITH REGARDS TO
MOISTURE RETURN OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY...BUT STILL MODEST AT
THAT. TEMPS THU REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 80S EAST TO MID FAR 80S WEST.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...APPEARS THAT DRY
WEATHER PATTERN IS LIKELY THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS LONG WAVE RIDGE
AMPLIFIES TO THE WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. NO MODEL CONSENSUS WITH TIMING OF FRONT FOR FRIDAY.  GFS HAS
BOUNDARY MOVING THE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY...WHICH IS
SIMILAR TO CURRENT FORECAST.  THE ETA AND UKMET ARE LESS PRONOUNCED
WITH FRONTAL SURGE.  PREFER THE GFS FOR NOW BUT COULD CERTAINLY SEE
A LATER FROPA.  AREAS OF FOG LIKELY AS WEAK WIND REGIME DEVELOPS
WITH APPROACHING FRONT FRIDAY MORNING.  SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WITH THE
FRONT LOOKS DOUBTFUL AS MODELS ARE KEEPING PWATS LESS THAN 1.5
INCHES.  ALTHOUGH APPRECIABLE MOISTURE IS NOT TOO FAR SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RETURN FLOW TO BRING
MOISTURE BACK.  SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS WHICH
WILL KEEP KEEP A FAIRLY WEAK WIND REGIME...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT OVER
THE REGION.  THIS COULD LEAD TO MORNING FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK. QUICK
PEEK OF MRF SHOWS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
EARLY WEDNESDAY. FOR MARINE...WILL KEEP WINDS AT SCEC CRITERIA FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

CRP BB 080/062 083/067 080 00001
VCT UB 078/057 081/064 082 00001
LRD BB 081/062 084/067 083 0000-

.CRP...SCA FOR OFFSHORE WATERS.

76/JR...SHORT-TERM
72/AP...LONG-TERM
Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 14, 5:00 AM CST, 23 hours before
GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-151100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
600 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH TEXAS AND THE COASTAL WATERS
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. HOWEVER MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH FLOW BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE
BAYS AND WATERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS AND THE ADJACENT
GULF WATERS ON FRIDAY. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
FRONT OVER THE COASTAL BEND. MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED DURING THAT TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

JR/AP

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.

Flood, McMullen

When
October 15, 4:00 AM CST
Where
McMullen forecast zone
Reported by
AWOS,ASOS,MESONET,ETC
Coordinates
28.353, -98.568 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Heavy rainfall over South Texas on the 11th and 12th led to river flooding.The Frio River at Tilden rose above flood stage on the 14th, crested at 22.89 feet on the 15th, and fell below flood stage on the 15th. (flood stage 22 feet)

What these are

Flood
Flooding that develops more slowly than a flash flood: rivers leaving their banks, or water standing over land for an extended time.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Texas in 2003Every state in 2003This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, October 2003

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5371309.