A modified tropical airmass persisted over West Texas for several days, and resulted in periods of thunderstorms that produced heavy rainfall and flash flooding.
Every event with a place to put it; 4 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MAF wrote it up.
A modified tropical airmass persisted over West Texas for several days, and resulted in periods of thunderstorms that produced heavy rainfall and flash flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 10, 2:57 AM CST, 3 hours 3 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 318 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2003 .SHORT TERM... LOOKS LIKE WE WILL CONTINUE IN THE SOUP TODAY AND TONIGHT AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. THE BAJA UPPER LOW WILL MORE OR LESS WOBBLE IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGING FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER TEXAS. APPEARS A PIECE OF EMBEDDED ENERGY IS TRANSLATING NORTHEAST OVER NORTHERN SINALOA AND SOUTHERN CHIHUAHUA ATTM...AND SOME CONVECTION IS NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER EASTERN CHIHUAHUA. THIS CONVECTION...IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER... COULD AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN ZONES LATER THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE... EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND SOME EMBEDDED DZ TO PERSIST UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE...WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING THEREAFTER. MAY SEE SOME MID LEVEL DRYING WORK ITS WAY INTO WESTERN ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING SOME INSOLATION AND DESTABILIZATION. WILL MAINTAIN HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO BETTER MID LEVEL FLOW...BUT NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE GFS. APPEARS THIS MODEL IS SUFFERING FROM MORE OF THE SAME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK TONIGHT...RESULTING IN SOME SERIOUS QPF ACROSS THE WEST. HAVE USED THE PLACEMENT OF THE HPC QPF THROUGH TONIGHT BUT KICKED UP THE AMOUNTS A BIT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. AS WAS THE CASE THE PAST FEW DAYS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MODULATED BY CLOUD COVER. THE GFS MOS NUMBERS APPEAR MORE REALISTIC GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS TODAY. && .LONG TERM... BIGGEST CONCERNS THIS FCST WILL BE FLOODING POTENTIAL AND HOW SAT/SAT NIGHT AND THE NEWD MIGRATION OF THE UPPER LVL CLOSED LOW PANS OUT. AS USUAL...MODELS ARE IN BIG DISAGREEMENT ON THIS EVENT. BY 48 HRS...THE ETA MOVES IT VERY LITTLE...AND STILL HAS IT OVER THE CNTRL BAJA WEST COAST...WHEREAS THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS PLACES IT OVR NE SONORA. LOOKING AT 00Z RAOBS IN THE PAC NW/UPPER CA...THE GFS INITIALIZED W/A MUCH BETTER HANDLE ON H25 WINDSPEEDS...AND AM INCLINED TO LEAN TOWARDS IT...ALL ELSE BEING ROUGHLY EQUAL. HOWEVER...POSSIBLY DUE TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...QPFS SATURDAY SEEM UNREALISTICALLY HIGH...AND WOULD RESULT IN BLANKET FFW/S FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. THUS...WILL TREND CURRENT POPS/QPFS UP MORE IN LINE W/THE GFS...BUT WON/T BET THE FARM. EVEN SO...W/SATURATED SOILS FM RECENT RAINS...IT WON/T TAKE MUCH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO RESUME FLASH FLOODING...AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ON SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS. EARLY SUNDAY...COLD FRONT BACKDOORS THE AREA...AS LOW OPENS UP... WEAKENS...AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...DROPPING HIGHS SUNDAY ABOUT 2 CATS AND CONTINUING PRECIP CHANCES. BRIEF NW FLOW ALOFT ENSUES MONDAY...GIVING A WARMUP AND A BREAK FROM THE RAIN BEFORE A TROUGH SKIRTS THE CNTRL PLAINS...SENDING A SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. CONSEQUENTLY...TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY...BEFORE A GRADUAL WARMUP AND DRY FCST THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED AS A RIDGE BUILDS TO THE W. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MAF 76 64 80 54 / 30 30 50 40 CNM 78 63 82 51 / 30 40 40 30 MRF 72 59 71 54 / 30 40 50 40 FST 76 66 79 55 / 30 40 50 40 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .TX...NONE. .NM...NONE. && 70/44
NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075- 079>082-258-102000- HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 500 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2003 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. .DAY ONE...TODAY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER MUCH OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. GUSTY WINDS AND DEADLY LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORM. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT http://www.srh.noaa.gov/maf.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
4 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
U.S. Highway 90 was inundated by high water.
Local authorities reported flash flooding resulting in one foot of flowing water in some city streets in Fort Stockton.
U.S. Highway 285 was inundated by high water southeast of Fort Stockton.
U.S. Highway 385 was inundated by high water.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2003Every state in 2003This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, October 2003
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5372048, 5372045, 5372046, 5372047.