Damaging Winds in Texas, May 1, 2003

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
851 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2003

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HOLDING TOGETHER JUST A FEW COUNTIES OUTSIDE
OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA. ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS
TOWARDS OUR AREA. WILL UPDATE THE ZONES TO MENTION SEVERE AND RAISE
POPS IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND UPDATE OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.

.HGX...NONE.

UPDATED PRELIMS...
CLL EB 070/087 069/090 068 523
IAH EB 070/087 069/090 069 222
GLS EB 072/083 072/084 072 222

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PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (255 PM CDT)...
DESPITE THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER/STRONG CAP OVER THE CWA...STORMS
HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER SE TX THIS AFTN. THE LACK OF HEATING HAS
HELPED TO KEEP THE CONVECTION MANAGEABLE THUS FAR HOWEVER. WE COULD
SEE A DIFFERENT STORY TONIGHT (GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE LINGERING
FRONT OVER N TX AND THE DRYLINE OVER CTL TX). ADD TO THIS THE PROGS
OF PWS NEAR 1.6-1.8 AND THE POSSIBILITY OF WEAK S/WS IN THE ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT...THE POTENTIAL OF MCS DEVELOPMENT OVER NC TX LOOKS GOOD
OVERNIGHT. AS IT STANDS WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...THESE SAME KEY
INGREDIENTS LOOK TO BE IN PLACE TOMORROW NIGHT AS WELL. SO IT WOULD
SEEM THAT HIGHEST POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS ARE IN ORDER. LEFT
OVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/RESIDUAL MOISTURE WOULD SEEM TO SUPPORT LOW
LOW POPS FOR TOMORROW AS WELL. WE SHOULD SEE MUCH LOWER/NIL POPS BY
SAT AS THE BOUNDARY WASHES OUT/RETREATS NORTH AND WE GET A SLIGHTLY
MORE RIDGEY COMPONENT TO THE UPPER FLOW. TEMPS AOA 90 ARE STILL AT-
TAINABLE TOMORROW BUT THE POSSIBILITY OF DEBRIS CLOUDS/ETC POINT TO
SAT BEING THE MORE LIKELY DAY FOR US TO SEE THIS ONE SURE SIGN THAT
SUMMER IS JUST UPON US. CLOUDS/RAIN CHANCES TO RETURN BY SUN AS THE
UPPER TROF NEARS/PWS POOL NEAR 2/ANOTHER SFC BOUNDARY SAGS SWD OFF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS PATTERN PROGGED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
NEXT TUES.  41/47

.HGX...NONE.

PRELIMS...
CLL EB 070/087 069/090 068 323
IAH EB 070/087 069/090 069 222
GLS EB 072/083 072/084 072 222

GMZ330-335-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-021200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
900 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AT 20
MPH. SOME OF THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT SOME OF THESE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO EDGE THEIR WAY INTO THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS EVENING ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
A LINE FROM BRENHAM TO HUNTSVILLE TO LIVINGSTON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THURSDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH A STRONGLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL BECOME MORE CERTAIN WITH LATER FORECASTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING AS THE STORMS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA CONTINUE TO HEAD TOWARD SOUTHEAST TEXAS.