Hail and Damaging Winds in Texas, May 1, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
228 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2003

SHORT RANGE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS...DESPITE THEM BEING TOO SLOW WITH FRONTS MOVEMENT TODAY.
THEREFORE...THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...AS SLOWING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO BECOME STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF METROPLEX LATE TONIGHT...THEN
BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MORNING STORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTH HAVE RESULTED FROM DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND STRONG
INSTABILITY. AS COLD FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INTERACT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST 2/3RDS TO 1/2 OF OUR CWA. HOWEVER...18Z
SOUNDING STILL SHOWS A PRETTY GOOD CAP. LATEST VIZ SATELLITE SHOWS
CU BECOMING MORE VERTICAL ALONG STALLED FRONT NORTHWEST OF
METROPLEX...WHILE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTH. MOISTURE REMAINS SHALLOW...BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME STORMS
BEAK THE CAP AND QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE.

DRY LINE WILL ADD INTO THE MIX TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS MODELS SHOW A
BULGE INTO N TEXAS NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. NOT A LOT OF UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT INDICATED TOMORROW...AND CAP WILL ALSO BE A NEGATIVE
FOR STORMS. STILL...EXPECT INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE TO BE
SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG DRY
LINE/FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MAINLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA ON SATURDAY...BUT SHORT RANGE
MODELS AGAIN SHOW A PRETTY GOOD PUSH ON THE DRY LINE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WHILE WE LOSE THE WARM FRONT...WILL WILL BEGIN TO BE
INFLUENCED BY BETTER...ALTHOUGH WEAK...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AS H5
TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO N TEXAS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE DRY LINE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. A COLD FRONT
WILL FOLLOW THE DRY LINE BY SUNDAY MORNING AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO COOL CLOSER TO NORMALS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEK. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT THESE
SHOULD BE MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS AS H5 FLOW BECOMES
MORE ZONAL.

FCSTID =   80
DFW   64  85  66  86 /  40  30  30  30
ACT   65  89  67  91 /  40  30  30  30
PRX   65  82  62  82 /  40  30  30  30
DTO   63  85  65  86 /  30  30  30  30
TKI   64  83  66  87 /  40  30  30  30
DAL   65  85  66  86 /  40  30  30  30
TRL   65  83  66  86 /  40  30  30  30
CRS   65  86  66  90 /  40  30  30  30
TPL   65  89  68  91 /  40  30  30  30

.FWD...
TX...NONE.

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-012100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1015 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT SOUTHEAST OF A GAINESVILLE...TO BRECKENRIDGE LINE. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS...WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS FROM THESE STORMS.

A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDED FROM NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST
THROUGH WICHITA FALLS...INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AT
MIDDAY...WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO NEAR A BONHAM...TO FORT WORTH...TO
GOLDTHWAITE LINE BY 6 PM. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A MODERATELY STRONG
CAP THIS MORNING...ADDITIONAL LIFT PROVIDED BY THE FRONT AND HEATING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK THE CAP. DUE TO THE
STRONG INSTABILITIES...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
FRIDAY.  THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IT
APPEARS THAT THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE NEAR A
STATIONARY FRONT...THAT MAY EXTEND FROM NEAR SULPHUR SPRINGS...TO
DALLAS...AND LAMPASAS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF A GAINESVILLE TO BRECKENRIDGE LINE.