Hail and Damaging Winds in Alabama, May 1 to 2, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
245 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2003

RUNNING A BIT BEHIND...LETS GET STARTED.

MCS IS MOVING THIS DIRECTION WITH BROKEN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA EXTENDING
FROM LAND-BETWEEN-THE-LAKES TO AROUND TUNICA MS. OUTFLOW BNDRY FROM
THIS VERY EVIDENT ON 88D...WITH NEW CONVECTION BEING FIRED BY IT.
FIRST PERIOD POPS ARE GOING TO BE BASED ON HOW FAST AND HOW MUCH OF
THIS CONVECTION MAKES IT THIS WAY. SKY COVER WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY
FOR AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS...AND CIRRUS WILL PROBABLY BE AROUND
MOST OF THE NIGHT.

PRECIP WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...BUT THE MORE I LOOK AT THINGS THE
MORE I AM FEELING LIKE TONIGHT MAY BE THE BULK OF THE PRECIP. WILL
KEEP LIKELY POPS THOUGH...WITH LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES AND OTHER
ASSORTED INFLUENCES...PLUS COPIOUS MOISTURE. WILL HOLD IN CHC POPS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH FROPA OF THE WEAK FRONT CURRENTLY GETTING
ORGANIZED IN THE PLAINS. WILL TREND MORE TOWARD THE ETA SOLUTION OF
A WEAKER FRONT.

WILL HOLD SATURDAY DRY...ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE ETA SOLUTION I REALLY
COULDNT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR STORM EVEN THEN AS WEAK IMPULSES IN
THE UPPER LEVELS PROPAGATE THROUGH THE AREA. THEN THE FRONT RETURNS
AS A WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY. PREVIOUS FORECASTER ADDED IN POPS FOR
SUNDAY AND THESE POPS ARE LOOKING BETTER AND BETTER WITH EACH MODEL
RUN. RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WELL...AND THIS
COULD BE A POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT...AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IS PROGGED TO STALL OVER THE AREA.

THE GFS FINALLY PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH OF HERE BY WEDNESDAY...BUT BE
ON THE LOOKOUT...I CAME CLOSE TO ADDING POPS FOR WEDNESDAY...ONLY
DECIDING AGAINST IT AFTER SEEING ISC GRIDS FROM SURROUNDING OFFICES.
WILL LEAVE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DRY AND NEAR CLIMO THIS PACKAGE.

GRIDS AND WEB GFX WILL BE OUT AFTER 3PM...SORRY FOR THE DELAY TODAY.

PRELIM DIGITS... (FIRST PERIOD POPS SUBJECT TO CHANGE)
MSL  63/80/58/79/57/73  262114
HSV  63/81/59/79/55/73  463114
4A9  61/80/57/78/51/72  563114
3A1  64/82/60/80/56/74  463114

.HUN...NONE.

JE/23

ALZ001>010-016-020230-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
100 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA.

.DAY ONE...(THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT)...

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IN WESTERN TENNESSEE WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE. THE BEST TIME
FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM 3 PM TO 9 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT SHOULD MONITOR LATER
WEATHER STATEMENTS FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
ON FRIDAY.

SHUMWAY

ALZ001>005-012130-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
335 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN
NORTHWEST ALABAMA...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST AT 40 MPH ACROSS
NORTHWEST ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS UP TO 50
MPH...SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. THE STRONGEST PORTION OF THE LINE WILL
AFFECT THE COMMUNITIES OF FLORENCE...SHEFFIELD AND CHEROKEE THROUGH
430 PM. WHEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING...MOVE INDOORS.  DO NOT
STAND BY WINDOWS AND AVOID USING TELEPHONES AND ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES
UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

CBD