High Wind in Texas, March 16, 2003

SOUTH PLAINS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
823 PM CST SUN 16 MAR 2003

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE
PERMIAN BASIN AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF FAR WEST TEXAS.
WITH JAYTON PROFILER SHOWING INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
DEW POINTS OVER THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN AND LOW ROLLING
PLAINS CLIMBING INTO THE 50S WILL UPDATE ZONES TO INCLUDE POPS
OVER SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND ALSO INCREASE POPS OVER EASTERN
LOW ROLLING PLAINS.

JV/08

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

DAY ONE...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING IN THE EXTEME
EASTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS...ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM CHILDRESS
TO ASPERMONT. WINDS HAVE REMAINED BACKED IN THAT REGION WITH LOWER
TO MID 50 DEWPOINTS AND LAPS DERIVED CAPES AOA 1500 J/KG.
NO APPARENT FORCING BUT HEATING ATTM...BUT WITH A LITTLE FURTHER
HEATING AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG DRYLINE/EDGE OF DEEPER
MOISTURE...MAY SEE ISOLD STORMS FIRE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS. FEEL THAT
ONLY MARGINAL HAIL THREAT EXISTS GIVEN WEAK DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR.
THUS 20 PCT POPS EAST THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD WITH
DOWNSLOPING AND QUITE A BIT OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS COVER THROUGH 12Z.
MID LEVEL GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN UP TOWARD MORNING. 50 TO
60M/200NM 700 MB GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT 25 MPH WINDS TOMORROW...WITH
GUSTS PERHAPS TO 35 OR 40 MPH. WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HIGH CLOUD
COVER. WILL FORECAST CLEARING TOWARD MORNING WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS. SHOULD WARM UP NICELY TOMORROW WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS.
COOLER IN THE SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE WITH THICKNESSES FALLING THERE AS
UPPER LOW APPROACHES. SOME BLOWING DUST MAY OCCUR IF WINDS APPROACH
30 MPH. LOWER STATIC STABILITY NORTH SUGGESTS WINDS MAY BE STRONGER
NORTHERN ZONES. FCSTID = 06

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL EVOLVE
INTO A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW AND MOVE EAST INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
ON TUESDAY. ATTM THE STRONGEST 500-700MB FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE CWFA. WESTERLY WINDS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALLOW DEEP MIXING AND THE TRANSPORT OF HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR PARCELS
TOWARDS THE SURFACE. UPSLOPE FLOW TO THE NORTH OF A SURFACE LOW OVER
THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN CO AND NORTHEAST NM.
WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW...WE
COULD SEE SOME CU DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND POSSIBLY
VIRGA AND SPRINKLES. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD EVAPORATE
BEFORE MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE DUE TO THE DRY DOWN SLOPE WESTERLY
FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY
DUE TO THE COLDER AIR ALOFT. ALTHOUGH DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY WINDS WILL
HELP TO WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL H5 LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON WED.
LOW-LEVEL CAA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE H5 LOW WILL CAUSE A COLD FRONT
TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WEST TEXAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY. ISENTROPIC DOWN GLIDE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE H5 LOW WILL
PROBABLY PREVENT ANY WRAP AROUND RAIN SHOWERS OR LOW CLOUD COVER
MAKING IT INTO THE CWFA. ON THURSDAY THE CENTER OF THE COOLER
SURFACE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION. WITH NORTHEAST
TO EAST SURFACE WINDS HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

MOST OF THE EXTENDED RANGE MODELS AND THE NORMALIZED ENSEMBLE 500MB
MEAN HEIGHTS SHOW ANOTHER H5 TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO 70S
ON FRIDAY AS WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE SURFACE WINDS DEVELOP. WESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVENT DEEPER GULF MOISTURE FROM RETURNING BACK
TO WEST TEXAS...SO IT LOOKS DRY. THE H5 TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WEST TEXAS BRINGING IN A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS
ON SATURDAY. AN H5 RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL AMPLIFY CAUSING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT  TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TEXAS BY NEXT
SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. 20

FCSTID = 06/20

FRIONA      45 73 38 62 / 00 00 10 10
TULIA       48 73 41 65 / 00 00 10 10
LUBBOCK     49 77 44 68 / 00 00 10 10
BROWNFIELD  49 76 45 68 / 00 00 10 10
CHILDRESS   53 80 47 71 / 20 00 10 10
ASPERMONT   56 82 53 73 / 20 00 10 10

.LUB...NONE.

TXZ021>044-170015-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1230 PM CST SUN MAR 16 2003

THIS IS A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...

CONVECTIVE

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...
GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM CHILDRESS TO ASPERMONT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN ROLLING
PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THE DRYLINE WILL
MOVE EAST INTO THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION ON MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
MOVES EAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS. AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WILL LIKELY
ACCOMPANY THE STRONG WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.