Heavy Snow in Arizona, March 16 to 17, 2003

Name: Heavy Snow in Arizona, March 16 to 17, 2003
Start: 2003-03-16T20:00
End: 2003-03-17T16:00
Location: Arizona

March 16 to 17, 2003 · NWS FGZ · 3 events in 3 counties and zones

A slow moving storm brought heavy snow to areas along the southern edge of the Mogollon Rim. Some of the new snowfall totals were: Munds Park 14 inches, Clint's Well 10 inches, Forest Lakes 9 inches, Blue Ridge Ranger Station and Happy Jack 8 inches, and Pine 6 inches.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 3 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 3

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS FGZ wrote it up.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 16, 2:30 PM MST, 5 hours 30 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 16, 2:30 PM MST, 5 hours 30 minutes before

NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 PM MST SUN MAR 16 2003

.SYNOPSIS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO EFFECT PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF MOUNTAIN
SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS...ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES...AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE DRYING OUT BY THURSDAY.

.DISCUSSION...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS ARIZONA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A NEGATIVE TILT AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL
ARIZONA. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION REMAINS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
AXIS FOR NOW. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY
WILL MOVE TOWARD ARIZONA. THIS SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY WILL BRING AN
EVEN COLDER AIR MASS INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
IT WILL ALSO ENHANCE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY
AS THE AIR MASS BECOMES UNSTABLE. EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER TO
AROUND THE 4500 FOOT LEVEL MONDAY AFTERNOON. MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY A CLOSED-LOW SPINS-UP OVER NEW MEXICO WITH STRONG AND MOIST
NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS WILL CONTINUE A GOOD
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM NORTHWARD INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THOSE FAVORED AREAS FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATION UNDER A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW REGIME. IT WILL ALSO BE
BREEZY TO WINDY ON TUESDAY SO IT WILL BE QUITE BRISK IN MOST AREAS.
MODELS SHOW A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE MOVING IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ENDING BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANOTHER WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN MOIST SO THERE WILL BE ANOTHER THREAT OF VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN. EXPECT WARMER WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.

MCCOLLUM

.FGZ...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 8000 FEET
       ZONES 4/6.

.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA

CITY             TEMPERATURES LO/HI           PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
                 TON MON   TUE     WED        TON MON   TUE     WED
FLAGSTAFF        027/034 024/035 020/043      060 070 060 060 030 020
WINSLOW          036/048 031/049 028/057      060 060 060 040 020 020
PRESCOTT         034/043 030/046 029/054      050 060 040 020 020 010
PAGE             040/048 037/052 036/060      070 070 060 050 020 020
WINDOW ROCK      031/035 026/036 023/044      070 070 060 060 050 040
CANYON DE CHELLY 037/043 034/044 031/052      060 060 060 050 040 030
COTTONWOOD       040/054 036/057 035/065      040 050 030 020 020 010
GRAND CANYON     029/036 026/037 022/045      070 080 070 070 030 020
GREER            026/035 023/036 019/044      060 080 070 060 040 030
HEBER            029/042 026/043 022/051      060 070 070 060 040 020
JACOB LAKE       026/030 023/031 019/039      070 080 070 060 030 020
NAVAJO N.M.      029/033 027/034 027/042      070 070 060 060 050 040
PAYSON           034/047 030/050 029/058      060 050 050 020 020 010
SEDONA           040/050 036/053 035/061      050 060 040 030 020 010
SELIGMAN         027/045 023/048 022/056      040 050 030 010 010 010
SHOW LOW         035/045 032/046 028/054      060 070 070 060 030 020
ST. JOHNS        034/046 029/047 026/055      070 070 070 050 040 030
WUPATKI N.M.     040/050 035/051 032/059      060 060 060 040 020 020

Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 16, 7:00 AM MST, 13 hours before

AZZ004>018-037>040-170200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
700 AM MST SUN MAR 16 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A STRONG AND WET PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA TODAY
BRINGING PERIODS OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO MUCH OF THE
AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO 6500 FEET IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE...AND 7000 FEET IN THE EAST. SNOW ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS ABOVE 8000 FEET IN THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF ARIZONA...SEE PHXWSWFGZ FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A SECOND STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO ARIZONA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW TO MANY AREAS. THIS STORM
WILL HAVE COLDER AIR...WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO 5500 FEET MONDAY
NIGHT. SHOWER WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

DEFINITION OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER...A WEATHER EVENT POSING A THREAT
TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

3 heavy snow. Local standard time, as filed.

Heavy Snow, Western Mogollon Rim

When: March 16, 8:00 PM MST to March 17, 2:00 PM MST
Where: Western Mogollon Rim forecast zone
Reported by: TRAINED SPOTTER
Coordinates: 35.839, -111.770 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Heavy Snow, Eastern Mogollon Rim

When: March 16, 9:00 PM MST to March 17, 3:00 PM MST
Where: Eastern Mogollon Rim forecast zone
Reported by: GOVT OFFICIAL
Coordinates: 35.620, -111.045 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Heavy Snow, Northern Gila County

When: March 16, 10:00 PM MST to March 17, 4:00 PM MST
Where: Northern Gila County forecast zone
Reported by: TRAINED SPOTTER
Coordinates: 33.800, -110.812 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

What these are

Heavy Snow: Snowfall reaching the local warning threshold without the other hazards of a winter storm.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Arizona in 2003 Every state in 2003 This day in weather history Warnings in Arizona, March 2003

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5350232, 5350233, 5350234.