Flash Flood and Hail in Texas, June 2 to 3, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
240 PM CDT MON JUN 02 2003

WX MUCH QUIETER TODAY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS 24 HRS THANKS TO
COMBINATION OF RAIN COOLED AIR AND DOWNARD MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORTWAVE TROF WHICH EXITED THE AREA EARLIER THIS MORNING. STORMS
TAKING LONGER TO GET GOING OVER MOUNTAINS OF ERN CO AND ERN NM...
BUT EXPECT THIS WILL CHANGE AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF MINOR
SHORTWAVE TROFS EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT HEADS SEWD TOWARDS AND
THRU THE SRN HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. HAVE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHC POPS NRN SECTIONS DUE TO FCST TRAJECTORY OF
SHORTWAVE TROF OVERNIGHT. MODELS ALSO SUGGEST AXIS OF HEAVIEST
RAINS MAY BE NERN QUAD OF FCST AREA AS WELL...AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE BASED ON ABOVE.

THE PERSISTENT NW FLOW PATTERN IS FCST TO CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST
THU WITH GREATEST CHCS FOR PRECIP OCCURRING DURING THE NIGHTTIME
PERIODS AND RELATIVE LULLS DURG THE DAYS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROF
SHOULD DRIVE SEWD LATER TUE EVENING AND THEN AGAIN WED NIGHT. IT
APPEARS A FAIRLY DECENT COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THRU THE AREA THU
EVENING WITH A REASONABLE CHC FOR PRECIP THEN AS WELL...WITH
PERHAPS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND FOR FRI AND SAT...SO
SLGT CHC POPS LOOK FINE AT THIS TIME. HAVE OPTED TO RETAIN DRY WX
FOR SUN AND MON AS FLOW MAY BECOME A BIT MORE WESTERLY OR SWRLY AND
NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR STEERING STORMS OFF MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...WILL
COMMENT THAT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE
PATTERN DURG EXTENDED PERIODS. HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF/UKMET/GFS ENSEMBLE FOR NOW. TEMPS A STRONG FUNCTION OF CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIP BUT SHOULD GENERALLY BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL MUCH
OF THIS WEEK. PRELIM NUMBERS FOLLOW...SUBJECT TO MINOR LAST MINUTE
ADJUSTMENTS.

FCSTID = 02

AMARILLO    57 82 57 75 / 30 20 40 30
BEAVER      58 80 59 77 / 40 20 40 30
BOISE CITY  55 79 55 74 / 40 20 40 30
BORGER      58 82 58 76 / 30 20 40 30
BOYS RANCH  57 82 56 76 / 30 20 40 30
CANYON      58 82 56 76 / 30 20 40 30
CLARENDON   61 83 59 77 / 30 20 40 30
DALHART     55 81 55 75 / 40 20 40 30
GUYMON      57 80 58 76 / 40 20 40 30
HEREFORD    58 82 55 76 / 30 20 40 30
LIPSCOMB    60 81 59 78 / 40 20 40 30
PAMPA       59 82 58 77 / 30 20 40 30
SHAMROCK    61 83 59 79 / 30 20 40 30
WELLINGTON  61 83 60 79 / 30 20 40 30

.AMA...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ANDRADE

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-031100-

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
100 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SEVERE
LEVELS...THEREFORE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES. DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

FOX