Tornado and Hail in Mississippi, June 2, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
304 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2003

FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS PERIOD ARE MAINLY THE TIMING AND INTENSITY
OF THE CONVECTION.

CURRENTLY THE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE AREA. A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS TO THE WEST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS MOVING TO
THE EAST. THE CAP CONTINUES TO ERODE AS A GOOD CU FIELD HAS
DEVELOPED. WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES...WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2IN...A GOOD 30KT LOW LEVEL JET
IN PLACE...CAPE VALUES AROUND 2200...AND LIS AROUND -4.5. AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WILL ALSO BE PROGRESSING FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA
FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION...AS THE SHORTWAVE ENTERS THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO FILL IN FROM THE WEST AND
INCREASE IN INTENSITY. EXPECT ISOLATED SEVERE TO OCCUR IN THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES...WILL MENTION THIS IN THE ZONES
AS WELL AS THE HWO...WITH RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES WORDING/GENERAL
THUNDER IN THE EAST. THE GFS INITIALIZED THE BEST THIS MORNING SO
WILL TREND WITH IT. THE COLD FRONT STARTS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING AN MCS
OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES AS THE BASE OF THE SW TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
SOUTHERN MS AND LA. CLEARING BEGINS IN THE DELTA REGION BY TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST. WILL
DECREASE WORDING TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOULD BE CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...MODELS LOOK CONSISTENT WITH THE COOL SEASON
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE PLAINS AND THE RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS AND SHORT WAVES
THROUGH THE AREA. MAIN PROBLEM IS THE TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVES. THE NEXT
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. PRECIP LOOKS FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION IT IN THE HWO. IT BEGINS TO CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE SYSTEM
SUNDAY...RETURNING TO SOUTHERLY FLOW ON MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT AND COULD AFFECT THE DELTA REGION.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS:
JAN TB 071/084 066/085 061 24860
    BTTEE 086/071 086/070 087/068 089/068 087 00005555000
MEI TB 070/083 065/085 061 24863
    BTTBB 086/071 087/070 087/068 089/068 088 00005555000

.JAN...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.

24/17

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
031939-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
239 PM CDT MON JUN 02 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA.	THE PRIMARY RISK WITH
STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND DOWNBURSTS.
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE NUMEROUS OVER THE DELTA
REGION ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR FROM WINONA WESTWARD TO
GREENVILLE AND CROSSETT.

A WARM MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMING EAST FROM TEXAS TO TRIGGER THE
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS INCREASING ENERGY MAY
SPAWN A FEW STRONG STORMS THROUGH MIDNIGHT...MAINLY WEST OF
INTERSTATE 55 BEFORE THE ACTIVITY BEGINS TO DECREASE INTO MORE OF
A HEAVY RAIN SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS MAINLY OVER SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...AND THEN SHOULD
BECOME CONCENTRATED IN AREAS OF MISSISSIPPI SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
20 AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AFTER MIDDAY.

...FLOODING...
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TRANSPORT VERY HIGH ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE VALUES INTO SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI THROUGH TONIGHT.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THESE AREAS COULD CONCENTRATE INTO A CLUSTER OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER TONIGHT.

ANY AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD PERSIST OVER
SPECIFIC LOCATIONS AND MAY BE CAPABLE OF DROPPING ONE TO TWO
INCHES OF RAINFALL WITHIN A FEW HOURS TIME. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED...HEAVY RAIN IN THESE AREAS COULD
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER UPON ROAD SURFACES MONDAY EVENING INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ANY HEAVY RAIN SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI LATER ON TUESDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

...DAYS TWO AND THREE...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

...DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY AND INTO
SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS...NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA
AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION AND GENERATE
SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING FRIDAY AND ENDING
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.  AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL BE AVAILABLE TO
PRODUCE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. THE  PRIMARY RISK IS EXPECTED TO BE
STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
FOR NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI... SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA. ACTIVATION MAY BECOME NECESSARY AGAIN ON TUESDAY FOR
MAINLY SOUTH MISSISSIPPI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.