Damaging Winds in Texas, June 13, 2003

COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
250 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2003

...GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS THE
COASTAL BEND AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS...

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...WV IMAGERY/RUC
ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG S/WV CURRENTLY MVG INTO FAR WRN TX W/ STRONG
CONVECTION FIRING ALL OVER CEN TX IN AN AREA OF GOOD UPR DIFFLUENCE
AHEAD OF THE VORT. CONVECTION IS ALSO SHOWING SIGNS OF DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE BORDER ALONG THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH
THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS. EXPECT ACTIVITY AND/OR OUTFLOWS FROM IT TO
MOVE EAST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS THE S/WV MVS THROUGH THE REGION.
HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO 50 PERCENT IN NRN ZONES AS A GOOD PORTION OF
THE S/WV TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDING GOOD DYNAMICAL LIFT.
MOISTURE DEPTH DECREASES AND THE CAP INCREASES AS YOU MOVE SOUTH DUE
TO A MID LVL RIDGE AXIS THAT HAS BEEN OVR THE GOMEX FOR SEVERAL
DAYS. THIS WILL LIMIT THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF ANY TSTM COMPLEX
AND WILL PROVIDE A SHARP POP GRADIENT ACROSS STH TX...MAKING THIS A
VERY DIFFICULT PRECIP FORECAST. WILL KEEP CHC/SCT POPS ALL BUT THE
CRP ZONES (KEEPING 20S THERE...THE EVENING CREW MAY NEED TO BUMP
THESE UP IN AN UPDATE). SPC HAS NRN AREAS OUTLOOKED FOR A SLT RISK
OF SVR TSTMS...AND MAY NEED TO PLAY UP THE POSSIBILITY A LITTLE MORE
IN AN UPDATED HWO THIS EVENING.

SATS FORECAST IS COMPLETELY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE OUTFLOWS LAY
COME MORNING. SHOULD CONVECTION/OUTFLOWS COMPLETELY ROLE THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT...IT WILL LIKELY END CHCS FOR MONDAY AS THE
ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS. WILL KEEP A BLANKET 30 POP ALL ZONES FOR NOW
COUNTING ON LINGERING ACTIVITY MAINLY IN THE MORNING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED S/WV WILL PRODUCE A CUT OFF LOW NEAR ERN OK ON SAT.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND THE CAP WILL DECREASE ON SATURDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE INITIAL S/WV AS A POOL OF MOISTURE SINKS SOUTH. TIMING
IS IN DOUBT...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION SAT NIGHT AS ANOTHER S/WV ROTATES
AROUND THE LOW TO THE NE. WILL KEEP CHC POPS GOING SAT NIGHT.

LONG-TERM (SUN THROUGH FRI)...AS DISCUSSED YESTERDAY...CONCERN WILL
BE FOR REMNANTS OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION LINGERING ON SUNDAY AND
POSSIBLY RETURNING SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.  WILL CONTINUE WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING PERIOD AND LESSEN THEM
DURING THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY (I.E. WILL PLAY THE NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION SCENARIO).  WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SAME TREND AS PREVIOUS
FORECASTS IN LESSENING CONVECTION TUESDAY...WITH NO POPS
AFTERWARDS.  AGAIN...ALL WILL DEPEND ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM WHICH I BELIEVE WILL BE FAR ENOUGH EAST NOT TO IMPACT OUR
AREA.  JUST FIND IT HARD TO BUY THE AVN/GFS KEEPING POPS IN OUR AREA
WEDNESDAY WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OBTAINING A WESTERLY COMPONENT
HERE.  WITH EXPECTED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT...WILL GO WITH COOLER MINS
(WHICH IF WE MISS OUT ON THE RAINFALL OR STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
WILL BE WARMER THAN FORECAST) AND NOT LET MAXES UP TOO HIGH WITH
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER LINGERING. WILL BEGIN A GENERAL WARM UP TO
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS AS UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS JUST WEST OF THE
AREA.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS:
CRP BT 079/093 076/089 074 23354
VCT BT 077/093 073/088 073 53454
LRD BT 079/101 077/095 076 43454

.CRP...SCA BAYS AND WATERWAYS AND OUT TO 60 NM OFFSHORE FROM
       BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR
    ...HEAT ADVISORY ALL ZONES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON

88/MJG...SHORT-TERM
86/GW...LONG-TERM

TXZ229>234-239>247-141100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
445 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT AND
COMBINE WITH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER SOUTH TEXAS TO PRODUCE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS...WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.  THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT IS GREATEST NORTH OF A LAREDO TO PALACIOS LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS.

SOME OF STORMS MAY CONTAIN BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING. DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS ALL THE WATERS DUE TO LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT.

TR/TMT