Hail in Texas, April 7, 2003

SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
930 PM CDT MON APR 7 2003

CURRENT WEATHER ANALYSIS...TRENDS AND OUTLOOK...
SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY INTO THE EXTREME EASTERN COUNTIES OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
NEAR AUSTIN. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
LOOK FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

CURRENT THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL EXPIRE AT 10 PM.
A NEW WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES
AND EXTEND TO 3 AM. THE FORECAST IS GOOD FOR TONIGHT AND WILL BE
UPDATED ONLY TO CHANGE THE WATCH ZONE GROUPINGS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER EXTREME SE ZONES SPARKED BY
SURFACE TROUGH NEAR COAST.  HOLDING TO THE GOING SCENARIO WITH SEVERE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING.  EXPECT SEVERE THREAT TO END WITH FRONT
STARTING TO MOVE IN AROUND MIDNIGHT AND SWEEPING THROUGH OVERNIGHT.
SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION AND OVERRUNNING RAIN IN STORE FOR THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH CLEARING TO FOLLOW TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL PICK UP RAPIDLY WITH FRONT AND BY MORNING
ZONE TIME SHOULD BE CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.  WILL GO WITH
CAUTION ON AREA LAKES AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LATER SHIFTS NEEDING TO
ISSUE WIND ADVISORY FOR TUESDAY MORNING.  WINDS SHOULD EASE DURING
THE AFTERNOON.  NOT LOOKING FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BE A MAJOR RAIN
PRODUCER...ALTHOUGH A FEW SLOW MOVING CELLS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY AMOUNTS.   QUITE CHILLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  SLOW WARMING LATE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING WITH
STRONG UPPER RIDGE.  GULF REOPENS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING MONDAY.

.EWX...NONE.

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-081100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
500 PM CDT MON APR 7 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

AN UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SLOWLY EAST AND
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.

WITH MODERATE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...THE PRIMARY WEATHER THREATS
WILL BE FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...ISOLATED TORNADOES...AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO TWO INCHES. THE STORMS WILL
LIKELY BEGIN OVER THE HILL COUNTRY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
FOCUS SHIFTING SOUTH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.