Hail in Texas, April 7, 2003

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED TO INCLUDE WW 112
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
920 AM CDT MON APR 7 2003

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST THIS
MORNING AS INCREASING WARM ADVECTION HAS OVERCOME THE CAP IN A FEW
PLACES. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED...AND UPDATED
ZONES HAVE  EEN SENT.

...EARLIER DISCUSSION...
FOG HAS BEEN SLOWLY BURNING OFF ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA. THE WORST CONDITIONS REMAIN IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
COUNTIES WHERE VISIBILITIES DROPPED TO NEAR ZERO EARLIER THIS
MORNING.  VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE SO HAVE ALLOWED THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE. EARLY MORNING SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING...AND WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVERHEAD...WE MAY NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SUNSHINE TODAY. MID TO UPPER 70S LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET.  WILL LOWER
TEMPS A CATEGORY IN THE CENTRAL ZONES. ANOTHER QUESTION WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  THERE ARE A COUPLE
OF FACTORS GOING AGAINST THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. FIRST OF
ALL...A STRONG CAP REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WITH THE STRONGEST FORCING NOT EXPECTED TO REACH HERE UNTIL
TONIGHT...THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH DEVELOPMENT THERE
WILL BE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE SECOND FACTOR IS THAT WHEN THE FRONT
AND CORRESPONDING FORCING ARRIVES...DIURNAL COOLING WILL HAVE
STABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE SOMEWHAT. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE FAIRLY
LOW /GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KFT/ SO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND
ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS. WILL GO
AHEAD AND MENTION SEVERE IN THE ZONES FOR LATE TONIGHT. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL DRY OUT AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
COOL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AND A
WARM UP SHOULD OCCUR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. 46/43

.HGX...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR HARRIS...LIBERTY...CHAMBERS...
       AND GALVESTON COUNTIES TIL 21Z.
       SCEC 0 TO 60 NM GULF WATERS.

...PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...
ISSUED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS TIL 9 AM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CANADIAN COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH...CROSSING THE RED RIVER NOW AND
SLOWING. PREFRONTAL TROUGH NEAR A SHV TO AUS LINE. FOG IS WIDESPREAD
OVER THE FA THIS MORNING AND WILL BE ISSUING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
SHORTLY.

EXPECTING THE COLD FRONT TO STALL TODAY THEN ACCELERATE SOUTH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT REACHING THE COAST 08-10Z. ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE PEAKED AROUND 18Z SUNDAY AT HOUSTON AND GALVESTON NEAR 1.6-
1.7 BUT CAP WAS TOO STRONG. IPWV HAS DROPPED OFF TO 1.1 GLS/HOU
(LEDBETTER AT 0.5) BUT ARE PROGGED TO RISE ABOUT .2-.5 AFTER 18Z.
LITTLE LIFT THIS AFTERNOON...CLOUD COVER AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD YIELD 40 POPS NORTH-30 SOUTH FOR TODAY.
ETA PROGS LI TO DROP TO -6 TO -8 THIS AFTERNOON AND CAP
(THEORETICALLY-PER ETA) ERODES LEAVING SOME MARGINAL THREAT FOR
SEVERE WITH MULTICELLULAR STORMS...WILL NOT MENTION SEVERE IN ZONES
TODAY...BUT FOLLOWING SHIFT WILL WANT TO STUDY NEXT SET OF RAOBS AND
MODELS (PERHAPS THEY WILL DO BETTER THAN LAST NIGHT). TONIGHT IS A
DIFFERENT STORY. VERY STRONG LIFT AS COLD FRONT DRIVES
THROUGH...COUPLED UPPER JET...SOUNDINGS BECOME NEARLY SATURATED TO
500MB. WIDESPREAD PRECIP SOUNDS QUITE REASONABLE...SEVERE THREAT
SEEMS POSSIBLE AS WELL. S0 WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH POPS FROM THE DAY
SHIFT...80 POPS THOUGH THESE WILL PROBABLY GO TO 90 OR BETTER.
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET AFTER FROPA AND THESE VERY WARM MINS WILL BE
BUT A FLEETING MEMORY. WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TUESDAY
OVER THE AREA AND PROBABLY STILL SO SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. SCAS A
GIVEN AND MAY GET GUSTS AT GALE. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IN THE FA FOR THIS COLD SNAP...WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE INTO THE 30S
CLOUDS SHOULD EXIT THE AREA TUESDAY AND DO NOT FORESEE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF CLOUDS TIL FRIDAY. AM LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF
LINGERING WEAK UPPER CIRCULATION SWINGING THROUGH TEXAS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

DONT PUT AWAY THE SWEATERS YET.

45/37

PRELIMS...
CLL CB 078/054 065/037 064 481
IAH EB 080/058 065/039 064 383
GLS EE 075/063 064/047 060 383

GMZ330-335-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-081200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
935 AM CDT MON APR 7 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH VERY MOIST AIR TO HELP
DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST BETWEEN 3 AND 6
AM. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON...AND STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT. IT APPEARS THE
GREATEST THREAT WILL BE FROM HAIL AND STRONG WINDS IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 1 INCH
MAY ACCOMPANY THE STORMS AS WELL.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WIND
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL
STRENGTHEN QUICKLY TUESDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS ARE LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

TXZ200-213-214-238-072100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1012 AM CDT MON APR 7 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM FOR LIBERTY...
CHAMBERS...HARRIS...AND GALVESTON COUNTIES...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS
OF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE
REGION IS MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE STORMS TO
RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...IN EXCESS OF THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH...AND
DAMAGING WINDS OF 58 MPH OR GREATER.

ONCE AGAIN...COUNTIES INCLUDED IN THIS WATCH ARE HARRIS...
GALVESTON...LIBERTY...AND CHAMBERS.

PERSONS IN OR NEAR THESE COUNTIES SHOULD KEEP A LOOK OUT FOR
RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO WARNING.