Hail in Texas, April 19, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1045 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2003

UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING CONVECTION OUT WEST THIS MORNING.
INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS NE TX/NW LA BUT LEFT ZONES SOUTH
OF I-20 CORRIDOR AND ZONES OUT EAST UNCHANGED AS CONVECTION HAVING
TROUBLE GOING ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS TOWARDS THE TOLEDO BEND
RESERVOIR.

LOCAL PROFILERS AND LAPS DATA SHOWING STORMS OUT WEST ROOTED
IN GOOD LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE AXIS AS THEY PROPAGATE NORTH
NORTHEAST AT 50 TO 60 MPH. LOW LEVEL JET BEGINNING TO DECREASE
A LITTLE AND AS THIS CONTINUES TODAY...EXPECT STORMS TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. MEANWHILE...DRY LINE
STARTING TO ADVANCE EAST AND DURING THE PAST HOUR HAD JUST
PASSED THROUGH ABI. HUGE CAP NOTED ON FWD SOUNDING THIS MORNING
AND THIS WILL BE THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT BY LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING AS THE DRYLINE SHOULD BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF DFW
TO ACT BY 00Z TONIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE SOME WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER ACROSS THE I-30 CORRIDOR
THIS AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH LIFT GENERATED BY THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO WEAKEN THE CAP SUFFICIENTLY ENOUGH TO GENERATE
ADDITIONAL STORMS...WE SHALL SEE.

UPDATE ALREADY SENT...13.

.SHV...NONE.

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-201700-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1200 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST
TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON ROOTED IN
GOOD LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS. LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT...A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BECOME VERY UNSTABLE BY LATE TODAY WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE AND MOVE EAST
INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH LARGE HAIL A DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER ON SUNDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE SAM RAYBURN
AND TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY OF EAST TEXAS INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGERS...SKYWARN NETWORKS...AND STORM
SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND AGAIN
ON SUNDAY.