Hail and Damaging Winds in Tennessee, April 25, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
958 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2003

CURRENTLY, SKIES HAVE BECOME SCATTERED ACROSS THE MID STATE, WHICH
IS ALLOWING FOR HIGHER THAN EXPECTED TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL LIKELY
ENHANCE OUR CHANCES FOR CONVECTION LATER TODAY, GIVEN THE GREATER
INSTABILITY NOW FORESEEN. AT 14Z, A 998 MB SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED
NEAR THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL, WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENING AND
INCREASING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

MOST UNSTABLE AIR THIS HOUR IS LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, WHERE SURFACE-BASED LIFTED INDICES HAVE DROPPED TO -2.
ALSO, BULLSEYE OF DEEP PRESSURE FALLS IS CENTERED OVER THE PARIS AND
DOVER AREAS, WITH SIGNIFICANT SURFACE MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE
ALIGNED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT NEAR THE TENNESSEE
RIVER.

SPC HAS PLACED ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE IN A SLIGHT RISK, WITH OUR
SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES UNDER A MODERATE RISK. AS A RESULT, HAVE
OVERHAULED THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK, AND HAVE ISSUED A ZONE
UPDATE TO HEIGHTEN THE AWARENESS OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, AS
WELL AS TO RAISE TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES.

BY THE WAY, A SPECIAL SOUNDING IS PLANNED FOR 18Z.

.BNA...NONE.

ROSE

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075>080-093>097-261030-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED FOR GRAMMATICAL ERROR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
900 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL APPROACH THE MID STATE
TODAY, SETTING UP THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE ENVIRONMENT
OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY UNSTABLE AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. WHEN COUPLED WITH THE MODERATE LEVEL OF LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR, CONDITIONS ARE RIPE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY CROSS SEVERE THRESHOLDS,
WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING FREQUENT LIGHTNING, DAMAGING DOWNBURST
WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND EVEN ISOLATED TORNADOES.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE
UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER, WITH AN AREA OF MODERATE
RISK COVERING THE SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE. YOU ARE
THEREFORE URGED TO REMAIN ALERT TO DEVELOPING WEATHER CONDITIONS AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES, AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS, AND POSSIBLE
WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY FOR ANTICIPATED SEVERE
WEATHER.

ROSE