Hail in South Carolina, May 7, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
250 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2003

CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION THIS AFTN.
12 UTC FFC SOUNDING HAD A FAIRLY STRONG CAP THAT WOULD NEED A
TEMPERATURE OF 80 AND DWPT OF 70 TO BREAK. BETWEEN THAT AND THE LACK
OF ANY SFC CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE CWA MOST OF THE DAY...THINGS HAVE
REMAINED QUIET. MCC OVER THE AL/GA BORDER WL CONTINUE TO MOVE ESE
THROUGH THE EVENING HRS ON THE WARM SIDE OF OLD OUTFLOW BNDRYS. THIS
WL KEEP THICK CI CLOUD COVER OVER THE CWA AND HURT SFC INFLOW INTO
THE UPSTATE.

HOWEVER...FLOW IS BEGINNING TO BACK FARTHER NORTH...AND MSAS IS
SHOWING INCREASING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE MTNS AND NC
FOOTHILLS. ERN TN CONVECTION IS JUST BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WRN
NC MTNS. STILL EXPECT LINEAR MCS TO ORGANIZE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND CROSS MOST OF THE CWA THIS EVENING...THOUGH THE AMOUNT OF SEVERE
WEATHER LOOKS LIKE IT WL BE MORE LIMITED THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.

WL CONTINUE THE FFA UNTIL MIDNIGHT. WITH PCPN JUST MOVING IN...AND
W/1 HR FFG VALUES UNDER AN INCH IN THREES HOURS...NOT MUCH CHOICE.

LATE TNGT AND THU FLOW TURNS NW ACROSS THE CWA AS SHORTWAVE MOVES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS PUSHES A WEAK FRONT INTO THE UPSTATE
AND TAILING BACK INTO THE MTNS. THIS SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR AFTN CONVECTION THU. ETA ALSO BRINGS A FAIRLY STRONG
VORT ACROSS THE CWA IN THE AFTN. THUS...WL KEEP 30 POPS.

LLVL UPGLIDE INCREASES LATE THU NGHT AS STRONG TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT
INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THIS MAY BE ENUF FOR NOCTURNAL CONVECTION AND
WL INCLUDE POPS THROUGH THU NGHT. BY FRI...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
INCREASE AS THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER EJECTS ACROSS A GOOD BIT OF THE
SE STATES. HOWEVER...THIS WL ALSO RESULT IN A STRONG CAP. WL
CONTINUE CHANCE OF AFTN CONVECTION...BUT CHANCES ARE NOT LOOKING
GREAT.

WL CONFINE POPS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN SAT...W/FROPA GIVING THE
ENTIRE AREA A SHOT OF PCPN SUN AND SUN NGHT. WL GO DRY MON-WED.
HOWEVER...PRIND ARE THAT FROPA MAY NOT GET AS FAR S AS EARLIER
THOUGHT...AND THE DRY FORECAST IS NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE ONE.

FCSTID =   14
GSP   63  83  62  85 /  40  30  30  30
AND   63  83  63  87 /  40  30  30  30
CLT   64  84  63  86 /  60  30  30  30
HKY   61  82  60  83 /  50  30  30  30
AVL   58  78  59  81 /  40  30  30  30

.GSP...
GA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR ZONES
GAZ010...GAZ017>018...GAZ026...GAZ028>029.

NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR ZONES
NCZ048...NCZ051>053...NCZ058>059...NCZ062>067.

SC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR ZONES
SCZ001>007...SCZ010>012...SCZ019.

MCAVOY

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-071100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
430 AM EDT WED MAY 7 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY...SOME WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. FLOODING IS
LIKELY TO BE A SERIOUS CONCERN ...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE COUNTIES THAT
HAVE ALREADY EXPERIENCED HIGH WATER PROBLEMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SOME MAY BECOME
SEVERE...ESPECIALLY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY.

RB