Winter Storm in Rhode Island, January 3 to 4, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION..UPDATED..
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
144 PM EST FRI JAN 3 2003

...MAJOR WINTER STORM AT HAND FOR SNE AND THIS EVENINGS COMMUTE
   HAS TO BE BAD BOS-BDL NWWD...

B WORD NOT BEING USED YET... BUT IF IT WERE TO OCCUR WOULD BE
NEWBURYPORT TO ORH NR MIDNIGHT.  NOT EMPLOYING THIS YET

THIS AFD WILL HAVE TO HOLD THRU AT LEAST 430 PM. CONSIDER IT YOUR
AFTN AFD. MAIN PKG MESSAGE OUT.

ETA APPEARS AS MODEL OF CHOICE THRU 60 HRS... LOOKS BETTER THAN
AVN QPF WISE FIRST 6 HRS. AVN MAY BE TOO SLOW.

130 PM: PROSPECT CT THUNDER SNOW AND 1.5 IN 1 HR WERE ON. CSI
APPARENT

INTERNET CONNECTITY TO BOX IS COMPROMISED...POSSIBLY BY WEB
INTEREST.  KEEP CHECKING.

SKYWARN IS SELF ACTIVATED.

11 AM ZONES...RDF...NPW AND WSW..HWO CFA OUT. NPW MADE IT SIMPLE JUST
FOR TONIGHT BUT WILL AT 4 PM ISSUANCE WILL EXTEND NE MA INTO SAT
17Z.

CFA. MAPSSE GUIDANCE IS DOWN .2 FM PREV BUT STILL RATHER HIGH. WATCH
MAY BE OVERDONE BUT WERE MORE COMFORTABLE WITH A WATCH FOR EMERGENCY
PREPAREDNESS BEFORE THE WKND. RATE THIS MDT CF THREAT AS 50 PCT FOR
MA 7/15/16/19 FOR MIDDAY SAT HI TIDE.

12Z/3 AUTOMATED WNA (FM GFS GWW) GUIDANCE FOR 44029 OFFERS 5.2M AT
17Z TOMORROW WHICH TIMES WITH HIGH TIDE. THATS 18 FT SEAS THERE. WE
ALSO THINK TIDE WILL B .3 HIGHER THAN YDY OR ABT 13.1. THIS SHUD
RESULT IN MDT CF... NOT DESTRUCTIVE BUT CERTAINLY GOING TO ALTER
TRAVEL PLANS FOR SOME SHORE ROADS MAINLY BOS NWD TO NBT.

RIGHT NOW WELL CALL IT A WATCH AND LEAVE FINAL DECISION TO CONVERT
FOR THE UPCOMING MID SHIFT.

12Z ETA/GFS DIFFER IN TIMING AND CRITICAL PARTIAL TKNS BOS-BDL.

NOW: COASTAL FRONT W OF BVY-TAUNTON OFFICE AND PROGRESSING WWD
STILL ONLY SHOVES UPPER 30S INTO SE MASS SINCE ITS STILL COLD OVER
THE GME

SFALL: THE HFD-CEF-ORH TRIANGLE IS MY OWN CONCERN FOR LARGE SNOWFALL
AMT ERROR BUT UNTIL WE SEE EVIDENCE OF ETA OR GFS BEING BETTER MODEL
WE GO WITH 50 PCT ETA AND 30 PCT GFS AND 20 PCT EXPERIENCE.  OTHER
AREA OF CONCERN IS NBT TO LOWELL RTE 2 REGION WHERE CAN SEE AMTS
HIGHER BY A FEW INCHES THAN OUR 11 AM FCST.  JUST DONT KNOW YET.

EVENING COMMUTE:  SHUD BE TREACHEROUS FM BDL-ORH I-84 AND MA PIKE
REGION. ALSO HAS WDSPRD 1.5 IN 24 HRS ENDING 18Z TOMORROW. 1-3/HR
LIKELY IN S+ AREA. THUNDER POSSIBLE TNGT IN INTERIOR MA.

NEXT 36 HRS: LONG DURATION RESOURCE DRAINER FOR MANY COMMUNITIES
             IN WARNING ZONE.

WSWRNG:  BOOSTED AMTS IN HFD-CEF-ORH-ORE.  RESRT LOOKS VERY GOOD TIL
         REALITY AMOUNTS ARRIVE.

         WARNING AMTS IN BOS-HFD CORRIDOR TENUOUS. 2 HRS OF
         WRONG PTYPE MEANS 4 OF SNOW TNGT. STILL TOUGH CALL.
         OCEAN BL WARMTH HAS TO OVERWHELM I95 CORRIDOR S OF
         BOS TO PVD AND MAKE IT WET AT TIMES DURING THE NIGHT.

CSI: NOT CLEAR CUT LIKE XMAS STORM BUT BLV SYM INSTAB FAVORS ENHANCED
     AND PERSISTENT MDT-HVY S OF 1-3HR IN S NH AND EVEN PTNS FAR NRN
     MA INTO MIDDAY SATURDAY.

PWR ISSUES: ALMOST CERTAIN THAT RELATIVELY WDPSRD POWER OUTAGES
            WILL OCCUR TNGT IN BOS-BDL CORRIDOR SEWD FROM COMBO WIND
            GUSTS AND PASTY SNOW.

NPW: PLS SEE THE STMT.

MARINE: WERE PRETTY CONFIDENT OF 50KT GUST E MA CW FOR 09Z-18Z
        SATURDAY.  THE 21Z SREF HAS GIVEN THE FIRST POP IVE EVER
        SEEN IN OUR AREA (YOUNG LIFE OF SREF) OF 10 PCT FOR
        SUSTAINED 20M/SEC. THIS LENDS CONFIDENCE TO EVEN STRONGER
        WIND THAN 1/1 WHICH CONTRIBUTES TO SWELL DVLPT.

THE REST OF THE STORY BELOW.

PATTERN: WHILE STRONGLY +PNA WEAKENS DURING MID MONTH THE VARIANT
         BUT MAINLY MDT -NAO AND AO CONT ON AND ON. CAN 10 DAY
         MEAN GETTING COLDER.  RESULT: SHO0T OF BLO OR M BLO
         NORMAL COLD WILL INVADE SNE PROBABLY BTWN THE 10TH AND
         18TH...IE THE COLDEST WX OF THE WINTER IN MID WINTER WHEN
         CLIMO IS CLOSING IN ON COLDEST OF THE SEASON

PLS NOTE A CHANGE HERE SINCE 11AM BUT IN LINE W PRIOR DAYS THINKING
THAT CONCERNS COASTAL SE NEW ENGLAND RESIDENTS.  BLV A FAST DVLPG
STRONG GALE IN THE OPEN OCEAN NR 38/68 IS LIKELY MON AFTN PER HINTS
IN 12Z UK. WE WILL FCST OCNL S- SUN NITE THRU EARLY TUE WITH POSSIBLE
PRD OR 2 OF MDT SNOW 1 95 SEWD DONT GIVE UP ON THIS NEXT ONE.

SUN NITE 1/5-6: MINOR EVENT BUT 2 SFALL POSS...JUST NOT ENUF TIME
                TO DVLP EXCPT MAYBE CC/ISLANDS?.

TUE 1/7: CONTS IN THE MIX AND WONT FLINCH FROM THIS UNTIL ITS NO
         CHC. COASTAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURS BUT MAY B TOO LITTLE TOO
         LATE...WHICH IS GOING TO BE GOOD NEWS FOR MOST PEOPLE HERE.
         JUST DONT GIVE UP ON THIS YET.

FRI 1/10  MODIFIED ARCTIC CFP

NEXT WKND: VERY COLD...MBLO NORMAL

NEXT BIG QPF EVENTS AFTER NEXT WKND?  LOOKS LIKE CLIPPERS W
COASTAL SNE REDEVLOPMENT. WHEN?  RIGHT NOW WELL CONT WORKING
SOMETHING DECENT IN THE 15-19 TIME FRAME. THAT DOESNT REALLY SAY
MUCH RIGHT NOW BUT DONT THINK IT WILLB DRY HERE FOR 10 DAYS.

EQMT: NWR AT HYA HAS PBLMS TDY. BEING WORKED ON.
      MHT WIND BEING DEICED TDY.

.BOX...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING CTZ002>004.

MA...WINTER STORM WARNING MAZ002>016
     WINTER WX ADV MAZ017>019.
     CFA MIDDAY SAT HI TIDE MA 7,15-16,19
     NPW HIGH WIND WARNING TNGT MA 7,15>16
     NPW WIND ADVY S COAST TNGT MA 20-24
     NPW WIND ADVY 03Z TNGT-11Z SAT MA 4>6 12>14 17>19

NH...WINTER STORM WARNING NHZ011-012.
RI...WINTER STORM WARNING RIZ001.
     WINTER WX ADV RIZ002>004.
     NPW WIND ADVY S COAST TNGT RI 5>7
     NPW WIND ADVY 03Z TNGT-11Z SAT RI 2>4

MARINE...GALES ALL WATERS.

DRAG

TEAM OF FCSTRS INVOLVED IN PROCESS TODAY
NOCERA/STRAUSS/DUNHAM/FIELD AND REMOTELY VALLEE AND ALL INTEROFFICE
COORD.

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-NHZ011-012-RIZ001>007-041045-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
107 PM EST FRI JAN 3 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE...
MASSACHUSETTS EAST OF BERKSHIRE COUNTY...NORTHEAST CONNECTICUT AND
RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION.  HEAVY SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET OR MORE IS
FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS.  THE SNOW WILL BE COMING DOWN FAST AND
FURIOUS FROM MID AFTERNOON...THROUGH THE EVENING RUSH HOUR...AND
THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...MAKING TRAVEL DIFFICULT.  AMOUNTS WILL
DECREASE THE FARTHER SOUTH ONE GOES...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
STATEMENTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THIS SITUATION.

A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT FOR EAST COASTAL
MASSACHUSETTS.  WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR RHODE ISLAND AND
THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS.

A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY FOR THE
MASSACHUSETTS COAST FROM NEWBURYPORT TO PLYMOUTH.  SEAS WILL HAVE
BUILT TO 15 TO 20 FEET.  THIS WILL COMBINE WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH TO PRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SPLASHOVER AND THE CLOSURES OF SOME COASTAL ROADWAYS.  STRUCTURAL
DAMAGE IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THIS STORM...HOWEVER.

GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS EXCEPT
NARRAGANSETT BAY.

FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON CURRENT OUTLOOKS/WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PLEASE REFER TO THE NWS-TAUNTON WEB SITE AT (ALL LOWER CASE):
HTTP://WWW.ERH.NWS.NOAA.GOV/ER/BOX .

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

MAIN CONCERN IS FOR TUESDAY WHEN LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST.  LOOKS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW...BUT
ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME LOOK TO BE LIGHT.

OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

AMATEUR RADIO OPERATORS AND OTHER SKYWARN SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR
TODAYS SITUATION AND BE PREPARED TO RELAY REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

FOR WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY THRESHOLDS, PLEASE REFER TO THE FOLLOWING
LINK (ALL LOWER CASE):
HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ER/BOX/WARNINGCRITERIA.SHTML .

GAF