Flood in Pennsylvania, September 15, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
305 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2003

COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS WESTERN PENN AT ABOUT 20 KT WITH WIDESPREAD
HEAVY SHOWERS AND A FEW LINES OF TSRA ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT.

BIGGEST PROBLEM TODAY HAS BEEN ACROSS OUR SE ZONES WHERE FLOODING
AND NUMEROUS ROAD CLOSURES HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS LANCASTER COUNTY AS
THE RESULT OF 3-4 INCHES OF RAIN IN JUST 4-5 HOURS. EXPECT TO SEE
ANOTHER ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN IN MANY PARTS OF OUR CWA THIS
EVENING...WITH LOCALLY UP TO 2 INCHES IN TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS.

THE WESTERN PA FRONT WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST COAST THEN BEGIN TO
DISSOLVE AS UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AHEAD OF POWERFUL HURRICANE
ISABEL.

SLACKENING WINDS/PARTIAL CLEARING LATE TONIGHT AND VERY MOIST LLVLS
FROM TODAYS RAINS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD/LOCALLY DENSE FOG BETWEEN
ABOUT 07Z AND 13Z.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FINE LATE SUMMER DAYS WITH PLENTY OF
SUN...AFTERNOON TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S...LIGHT WIND AND COMFORTABLE
DEWPOINTS.

LATEST TPC TRACK FOR ISABEL IS A TAD WEST OF SUNDAYS PATH...WHICH
WOULD MOVE ITS REMNANTS NORTH OVER KAOO AND KBFD FRIDAY MORNING.
WONT SPECULATE TOO MUCH ON THE EXACT OUTCOME OF THE STORM.
HOWEVER...SHOULD THE CURRENT TRACK HOLD...A TYPICAL WIDESPREAD 2-3
INCHES WITH LOCALLY 5-10 INCH RAIN AMOUNTS IN PERSISTENT SPIRAL
BANDS WOULD BE LIKELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HARRISBURG     61 78 57 78 / 70 10 10 10
WILLIAMSPORT   57 74 54 75 / 90 10 10 10
BRADFORD       48 68 48 72 / 40 10 10 10
JOHNSTOWN      53 70 50 73 / 30 10 10 10
ALTOONA        55 74 52 73 / 30 10 10 10
STATE COLLEGE  55 75 51 74 / 70 10 10 10
SELINSGROVE    59 77 54 77 / 80 10 10 10
LANCASTER      63 78 58 78 / 70 10 10 10
YORK           62 77 59 77 / 70 10 10 10

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUED THROUGH 11 PM THIS EVENING FOR COUNTIES
ALONG...AND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE SUSQ MAINSTEM.
&&

LAMBERT

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-151745-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1155 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM FOR COUNTIES MAINLY TO THE
EAST OF THE SUSQUEHANNA MAINSTEM AND NORTH BRANCH.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ENTERING WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...WILL
COMBINE WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO BRING
LOCALLY FLOODING RAINS ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA.

THE AREA OF HEAVIEST RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE ACROSS THE
REGION NEAR...AND TO THE EAST OF THE SUSQUEHANNAS MAINSTEM AND
NORTH BRANCH.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO THE EAST OF INTERSTATE 83...THEN NORTH ALONG
INTERSTATE 81 COULD EXCEED 3 INCHES. THIS RAIN WOULD LEAD TO RATHER
WIDESPREAD AND SERIOUS FLOODING CONDITIONS.

OTHER SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
COLD FRONT AS IT MARCHES ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA LATE TODAY AND
EARLY TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OF 1 TO 2 INCHES COULD OCCUR...BUT
WIDESPREAD FLOODING OF STREAMS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS NOT
ANTICIPATED IN THE CENTRAL AND WEST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISABEL MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN AND VERY GUSTY WINDS TO THE
REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON ISABEL AND THE FORECAST STORM
TRACK...SEE THE LATEST ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

LAMBERT/DANGELO