High Wind in Alaska, September 15, 2003

SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1200 PM ADT MON SEP 15 2003

ANALYSIS...THE BERING SEA BLOCK IS WEAKENING TODAY. STRONG WINDS
NOTED AT DUTCH HARBOR THROUGH LOCAL DRAINAGES. LOOK FOR THESE WINDS
TO SPREAD NORTH DURING TO DAY TO THE PRIBILOFS AND COLD BAY...HOWEVER
SHOULD NOT GET AS STRONG AS DUTCH HARBOR. ENOUGH THAT WIND ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN SET IN PLACE FOR THESE AREAS. OVERNIGHT WINDS FROM OUR
NORTHEAST DRAINAGES ARE WEAKENING IN MOST AREAS.

FORECASTS...GFS HAD A BETTER START TO THE 12Z RUN TODAY THAN THE
ETA/MESO-ETA/UKMET WITH THE LOW SOUTH OF ADAK. OVER THE EAST OUTSIDE
OF SOME MINOR PRESSURE DIFFERENCES ALL MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT. A
LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT WHICH IS CAPTURED BY ALL THE MODELS.
THEY CARRY THIS LOW TO JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA BY 60 HOURS.
THE DIFFERENCES IS THE DEEPENING OF THIS FEATURE. PREFER A GFS PATH
WITH A DEEPER CENTER. REASONS BEING ALL THE COLD AIR FUNNELING DOWN
FROM THE NORTHERN UPPER LOW INTO THE GULF. OUT WEST THE WORST OF THE
WINDS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING THEN DIMINISHES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THE FORECAST
PROBLEM WILL BE WINDS IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA ON WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN
LATER THIS WEEK WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION. WEDNESDAY THE STRONG
SURFACE LOW WILL BE SOUTH OF KODIAK WITH A STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER
THE NORTH SLOPE CREATING A STRONG NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG
WITH A GOOD PUSH OF COLD AIR. THERE IS PLENTY OF UPPER SUPPORT WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE BREAKING OFF FROM THE MAIN LOW CENTER AND
MOVING DOWN COOK INLET. WILL ISSUE A SPS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
INCREASED WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

.AFC...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 5B 6B 12A1 13 15 STORMS 12A 12B
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

PROTON SEP 03