High Wind in Oregon, January 2, 2003

NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR...CORRECTED
230 PM PST THU JAN 2 2003

.SYNOPSIS...WARM FRONTAL WAVE SPREADING MOISTURE AND LIGHT PRECIP
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN WILL INTENSIFY THIS EVENING AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ON SHORE OVERNIGHT AND EAST OF
THE CASCADES BY FRI MORNING. ANOTHER SYSTEM EXPECTED FRI NIGHT AND
SAT. EACH OF THESE WILL BRING MORE RAIN AND COASTAL
WIND. SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER CASCADES WITH EACH STORM. A
BREAK MAY COME EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE STORM TRACK SHIFTS A BIT NORTH
OF THE AREA.

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...NEXT WAVE BEGINNING TO SPREAD LIGHT RAIN NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA.  VERY WARM LOW LEVEL AIR MASS CREATING ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED TSTMS ALONG THE WARM FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  MAY NEED TO INCLUDE AN ISOLATED TSTM
MENTION THIS EVENING FOR THE SOUTH COAST AND SOUTH INTERIOR BUT WILL
SEE IF ANY MORE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS. RAIN SHOULD INCREASE THIS EVENING
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ON SHORE AROUND 04Z THIS EVENING.  SNOW
LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE 7000 FEET DURING MOST THE EVENT...THEN FALL
DRAMATICALLY TO 3500 TO 4000 FEET LATE TONIGHT.  EXPECT ONLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS AS HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE EAST OF THE CASCADES
BY THAT TIME. WINDS A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST.
MODELS SHOW GRADIENTS MARGINAL BUT STRONG 65 KT 850 WINDS. TENDENCY
HAS BEEN TO OVER PLAY THE WINDS DURING THE LAST COUPLE EVENTS AND
AFTER COORDINATION WITH MFR...HAVE DECIDED TO GO JUST BELOW HIGH WIND
CRITERIA.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH WINDS CLOSELY THIS EVENING AS A LAST
MINUTE WIND WARNING COULD BE NEEDED FOR GUSTS ALONG HEADLANDS.

NEXT WARM FRONT TO LIFT THROUGH ON FRI EVENING.  APPEARS THIS FEATURE
ONLY BRUSHES THE AREA WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIP WITH THE BULK HEADING N
INTO WA.  WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
WITH A ROUND OF RAINFALL TOWARDS SAT MORNING.  AGAIN...SNOW LEVELS
QUITE HIGH THROUGH MOST THE EVENT SO PASSES SHOULD REMAIN IN GOOD
SHAPE.

APPEARS THAT BREAKS IN THE PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP FLOOD POTENTIAL
LOW. HOWEVER WITH CONTINUING BARRAGE OF SYSTEMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...SOME RIVERS MAY WILL LIKELY REACH BANK FULL AND POSSIBLY
NEAR FLOOD STAGE. DECIDED TO KEEP THE FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
(ESFPQR) GOING BUT HAVE TONED DOWN POTENTIAL.

.LONG TERM...WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH SUN BUT IT APPEARS THE COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY NEVER MOVE THROUGH. EXTENDED MODELS CONSISTENT
IN BUILDING A RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR A DRIER AND MILD PATTERN.
WILL STILL KEEP A CHANCE MENTION N PART FOR MON/TUES WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NOT ALL THAT FAR OFF.  APPEARS WED/THURS BEST CHANCE OF DRY
DAYS AS SPLIT FLOW KEEPS SYSTEMS N AND S OF OUR AREA.

AST +69987  PDX 968986 SLE 967885  EUG 967885

.PQR...GALE WARNING CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE.
      .HIGH SURF ADVISORY CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE THROUGH SAT.
      .FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK THROUGH SATURDAY.

ORZ001>013-WAZ019>023-039-040-031430-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OREGON
630 AM PST THU JAN 2 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON.

.DAY ONE...

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

HIGH WIND WARNING CONTINUES FOR THIS MORNING FOR THE COAST. GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS ALONG THE COAST...WITH THE MOST PRONE AREA WILL BE THE
EXPOSED HEADLANDS WHERE GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH ARE EXPECTED.

STORM WARNING CONTINUES THIS MORNING...AND A HIGH SURF ADVISORY TODAY
ON THE COASTAL WATERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
COASTAL AREAS INTO SATURDAY. COASTAL WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IN ADDITION HEAVY
RAIN MAY POSE A PROBLEM FOR SOME COASTAL RIVERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO SKYWARN PROCEDURES.