High Wind in Oregon, January 1 to 2, 2003

NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR.
830 AM PST WED JAN 1 2003

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NW...STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECT
HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ON THE COAST...WITH SNOW IN THE
HIGHER CASCADES. A BREAK MAY COME EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE STORM TRACK
SHIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA.

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...BAROCLINIC ZONE NOW SITS JUST OFFSHORE...BUT IS HAVING
A DIFFICULT TIME PUSHING EAST INTO THE PAC NW. A LOW PRES NOW
DEVELOPING NEAR LAT 40N LON 140W LOOKS TO BE THE WAVE THAT WILL
FINALLY PUSH THE ZONE INTO THE PACIFIC NW...WITH RAIN INCREASING
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN NEAR THE PASSES MOST OF
TODAY..BUT WILL SLOWLY RISE TO 6000 FEET THIS EVENING...AND STAY
THERE THROUGH THURSDAY. NO ADVISORIES FOR SNOW...BUT ELEVATIONS ABOVE
6000 FEET WILL PICK UP SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS.

PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN UP MORE TODAY...WITH STORM FORCE
WINDS EXPECTED ON THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL BRING GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS TO THE COASTAL AREAS...BUT AS USUAL THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
ON THE EXPOSED HEADLANDS AND BEACHES. CURRENTLY HAVE HIGH WIND WATCH
UP FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...EXPECT THE
STRONGEST WINDS TO ARRIVE TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME WINDS SEEM TO BE
BORDERLINE FOR HIGH WIND WARNING TONIGHT...WILL DECIDE THIS BY
AFTERNOON.

WILL CONTINUE THE FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MODELS INDICATE THE INITIAL PUSH OF RAIN MAY BE MORE DIRECTED TO THE
OLYMPICS TO OUR NORTH...BUT SAGS SOUTH INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...AND CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
REMAIN IN THE 1 TO 1.25 INCH RANGE PER 6 HRS FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE USUAL SUSPECTS CLOSELY ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...SOME ALREADY EXPECTED TO GO ABOVE BANK FULL ON THURSDAY
(WILSON...NASELLE...NEHALEM AND NESTUCCA RIVERS). LIKENS

.LONG TERM...MODELS SHOW YET ANOTHER STRONG WAVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY FOR MORE RAIN AND COASTAL WIND...WITH MORE HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE. EXTENDED MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN US EARLY NEXT WEEK. BUT COULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER
STRONG FRONT ARRIVES TUE. WILL INDICATE BETTER WEATHER MON ONLY...BUT
STILL A CHANCE OF RAIN AS THE RIDGE IS A BIT FLAT OVER THE PAC NW.

AST +++87  PDX 8++86 SLE 7++86  EUG 6++86

.PQR...STORM WARNING ON THE COASTAL WATERS.
      .HIGH WIND WATCH SOUTH WA COAST AND THE NORTH AND CENTRAL
         OREGON COAST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
      .FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

ORZ001>013-WAZ019>023-039-040-021430-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OREGON
630 AM PST WED JAN 1 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON.

.DAY ONE...

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY ALONG THE COAST...BUT THE MOST
PRONE TO GUSTS OF 60 MPH WILL BE THE EXPOSED HEADLANDS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT ON THE COASTAL
WATERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COASTAL
AREAS INTO SATURDAY. COASTAL WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH POSSIBLE EARLY
THURSDAY AND AGAIN LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IN ADDITION
HEAVY RAIN MAY POSE A PROBLEM FOR SOME COASTAL RIVERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO SKYWARN PROCEDURES.