Damaging Wind in Oklahoma, May 1, 2003

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
430 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2003

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STAYED NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER
OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A COUPLE ISOLATED CELLS ACROSS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR STORMS TO BUILD
FURTHER SOUTH INTO FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS
MORNING AND WILL CARRY HIGHER POPS IN THIS AREA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH SET TO EXPIRE AT 5 AM.

COLD FRONT AND LOW CLOUDS TO ITS NORTH POSE A MAJOR DILEMMA TODAY
WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES. LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW THE LOW
CLOUDS SURGING SOUTH. EXPECT THE SOUTHWARD SURGE TO DRAMATICALLY
HALT AFTER SUNRISE AND THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY EVEN
ERODE SOME. FURTHER NORTH HOWEVER...THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE HOPE
FOR MUCH TEMPERATURE RECOVERY IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND BELIEVE THE 06Z RUC HAS THE RIGHT IDEA HERE.
TEMPERATURES IN THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDER INCLUDING TULSA ARE THE
TRICKIEST TODAY WITH A VERY LARGE RANGE LIKELY OVER JUST A FEW MILES.

FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY
LATE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE MAY BE JUST DEEP ENOUGH TO ALLOW A FEW
STORMS TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT AT THAT TIME BUT FURTHER WEST IT
SHOULD REMAIN DRY. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA BY LATER THIS EVENING.

FRIDAY WILL BE A DECENT DAY BUT THE WEATHER GOES DOWNHILL QUICKLY BY
SATURDAY. STRONG WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY SATURDAY WITH THE
POSSIBILITY THAT SOME ACTIVITY COULD MOVE IN BEFORE DAYBREAK. SOME
OF THE STORMS SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL THE
MAIN THREAT. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. MASSIVE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT LIKELY TO EXIST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY SO LARGE ERRORS ARE POSSIBLE IF
THE LOCATION OF THE GRADIENT SHIFTS FROM PRESENT EXPECTATIONS.

GFS AND ECMWF ARE VERY FAST IN SWEEPING THE DRYLINE THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY SUNDAY. THIS MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE AND WILL KEEP POPS GOING
THROUGH SUNDAY. A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY IF THE DRYLINE IS INDEED SLOWER.

MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A WARM AND DRY DAY BUT COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. REMOVED THE CHANCES OF RAIN WEDNESDAY WITH
DRY COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES AT THE VERIFICATION SITES BUT
WENT WELL BELOW EXTRAPOLATED GUIDANCE MAXIMUMS NORTHWEST OF TULSA
TODAY.

TUL   77   55   77   56  / 10    5   10   20
FSM   88   60   82   56  / 30   10   10   20
MLC   87   56   80   57  / 10    5   10   20
BVO   69   51   75   53  / 10    5   10   20
FYV   80   52   75   50  / 40   20   10   20
BYV   78   51   74   50  / 50   20   10   20
MKO   84   55   78   57  / 10    5   10   20
MIO   75   52   74   52  / 40   10   10   20
F10   84   55   79   57  / 10    5   10   20
HHW   89   60   84   59  / 30   10   10   20

FORECAST ID= 5

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

PLATE

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-011100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1110 PM CDT WED APR 30 2003

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

...CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...
A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE COMBINED WITH AN INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL
JET WILL MAINTAIN STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. WITH HIGH SHEAR VALUES ALONG THE
FRONT...CELLS WILL TEND TO BE DISCRETE IN NATURE...INCREASING THE
TORNADO THREAT. IN ADDITION...VERY LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. DUE
TO THE SLOW STORM MOVEMENT...FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS HEAVY
RAINFALL REMAINS OVER THE SAME AREA FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
TIME.

A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE REGION WILL
MINIMIZE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
REGION.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WARNING PROBABILITIES CAN BE FOUND IN
THE OUTLOOK SECTION AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA. GIVEN PROBABILITIES
REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARNING TO BE ISSUED AT YOUR LOCATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORE THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
INTERACTS WITH THE UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE AREA.  THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WILL DEPEND ON THE
LOCATION OF THE FRONT.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MONDAY SINCE THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE VICINITY.

.SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1 AM. SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED TONIGHT.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA

OKZ054>063-011000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1208 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
#194 UNTIL 500 AM CDT THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 10 COUNTIES...
IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA:

CRAIG                 DELAWARE              MAYES
NOWATA                OSAGE                 OTTAWA
PAWNEE                ROGERS                TULSA
WASHINGTON

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF BARTLESVILLE...BROKEN ARROW...
CLAREMORE...JAY...MIAMI...NOWATA...PAWHUSKA...PAWNEE...PRYOR...SAND
SPRINGS...TULSA AND VINITA.

OKZ056-057-010615-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1222 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN NOWATA AND
   NORTHERN CRAIG COUNTIES UNTIL 115 AM CDT...

AT 1222 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF WANN TO 2 MILES EAST OF
WANN...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. THE
COMMUNITIES OF WANN...HOLLOW AND WELCH WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE
STORMS THROUGH 115 AM CDT. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN
ALERT IN CASE WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

OKZ055-010630-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
108 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN WASHINGTON
   COUNTY UNTIL 130 AM CDT...

AT 108 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
COPAN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. THE COMMUNITIES OF
COPAN AND OWEN WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM THROUGH 130 AM CDT.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE WARNINGS ARE
ISSUED.

OKZ057-010945-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
405 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR CRAIG COUNTY UNTIL 445 AM
   CDT...

AT 405 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES
NORTHEAST OF HOLLOW...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. THIS STORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. THE COMMUNITIES OF
HOLLOW...PYRAMID CORNERS...BLUEJACKET AND WELCH WILL BE AFFECTED BY
THIS STORM THROUGH 445 AM CDT.

OKZ058-011000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
420 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR OTTAWA COUNTY UNTIL 500 AM
   CDT...

AT 420 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES NORTH OF PEORIA TO 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF
NARCISSA...MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH. THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

THE COMMUNITIES OF MIAMI...COMMERCE...FAIRLAND...NARCISSA...WYANDOTTE
...OTTAWA...PEORIA. .. QUAPAW...CARDIN AND PICHER WILL BE AFFECTED
BY THESE STORMS THROUGH 500 AM CDT.  RESIDENTS IN OTTAWA COUNTY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY WARNINGS THAT MAY BE ISSUED WITH
THESE STORMS.

OKZ063-011115-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
511 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR DELAWARE COUNTY UNTIL 615
   AM CDT...

AT 511 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 25 MILES NORTHEAST OF GROVE TO BERNICE...MOVING
EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

THE COMMUNITIES OF JAY...CHLOETA...ZENA...CLEORA...GROVE AND BERNICE
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS THROUGH 615 AM CDT.  RESIDENTS IN
DELAWARE COUNTY SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY WARNINGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS.