Hail in Oklahoma, May 1, 2003

MESOSCALE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
917 PM CDT WED APR 30 2003

ISOLATED SUPERCELLS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...MOVING EAST ALONG OUTFLOW/FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET.
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE AHEAD OF BOUNDARY WITH MUCAPES AROUND
3000 J/KG.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ALONG THE OKLAHOMA/KANSAS
BORDER ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INTO PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA
BETWEEN 1000 PM AND MIDNIGHT.  PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL
BE LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AS ACTIVITY SHIFTS EAST INTO NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA IF THUNDERSTORMS
BEGIN TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS.

FORECAST ID= 12

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-011100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1110 PM CDT WED APR 30 2003

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

...CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...
A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE COMBINED WITH AN INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL
JET WILL MAINTAIN STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. WITH HIGH SHEAR VALUES ALONG THE
FRONT...CELLS WILL TEND TO BE DISCRETE IN NATURE...INCREASING THE
TORNADO THREAT. IN ADDITION...VERY LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. DUE
TO THE SLOW STORM MOVEMENT...FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS HEAVY
RAINFALL REMAINS OVER THE SAME AREA FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
TIME.

A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE REGION WILL
MINIMIZE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
REGION.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WARNING PROBABILITIES CAN BE FOUND IN
THE OUTLOOK SECTION AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA. GIVEN PROBABILITIES
REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARNING TO BE ISSUED AT YOUR LOCATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORE THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
INTERACTS WITH THE UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE AREA.  THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WILL DEPEND ON THE
LOCATION OF THE FRONT.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MONDAY SINCE THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE VICINITY.

.SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1 AM. SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED TONIGHT.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA

OKZ054>056-059-010600-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
730 PM CDT WED APR 30 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
#191 UNTIL 100 AM CDT THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 4 COUNTIES...
IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA:

NOWATA                OSAGE                 PAWNEE
WASHINGTON

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF BARTLESVILLE...NOWATA...PAWHUSKA AND
PAWNEE.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS EVENING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS...ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST LATER THIS
EVENING...MOVING INTO PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BETWEEN
1000 PM AND MIDNIGHT...PRIMARILY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44.  LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS.

OKZ054-055-010530-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1133 PM CDT WED APR 30 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN OSAGE AND
   NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 AM CDT...

AT 1133 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF HULAH TO 12 MILES NORTHWEST
OF BIGHEART...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. THE COMMUNITIES OF COPAN...OWEN...
BIGHEART AND HULAH WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS THROUGH 1230 AM
CDT. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE WARNINGS
ARE ISSUED.

OKZ054>063-011000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1208 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
#194 UNTIL 500 AM CDT THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 10 COUNTIES...
IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA:

CRAIG                 DELAWARE              MAYES
NOWATA                OSAGE                 OTTAWA
PAWNEE                ROGERS                TULSA
WASHINGTON

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF BARTLESVILLE...BROKEN ARROW...
CLAREMORE...JAY...MIAMI...NOWATA...PAWHUSKA...PAWNEE...PRYOR...SAND
SPRINGS...TULSA AND VINITA.

OKZ056-057-010615-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1222 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN NOWATA AND
   NORTHERN CRAIG COUNTIES UNTIL 115 AM CDT...

AT 1222 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF WANN TO 2 MILES EAST OF
WANN...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. THE
COMMUNITIES OF WANN...HOLLOW AND WELCH WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE
STORMS THROUGH 115 AM CDT. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN
ALERT IN CASE WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

OKZ055-010630-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
108 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN WASHINGTON
   COUNTY UNTIL 130 AM CDT...

AT 108 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
COPAN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. THE COMMUNITIES OF
COPAN AND OWEN WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM THROUGH 130 AM CDT.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE WARNINGS ARE
ISSUED.