Hail in Oklahoma, March 17, 2003

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
1045 AM CST MON MAR 17 2003

ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. WILL CARRY LOW POPS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT CURRENTLY FEEL ACTIVITY WILL DIE OFF WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. LEFT REST OF
FORECAST AS IS...WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR STORMS TONIGHT/TOMORROW.

UPDATED ZONES ALREADY SENT.

FORECAST ID= 23

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-181200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED TO ADD RISK TABLE...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
150 PM CST MON MAR 17 2003

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

.SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
AREA 1...ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS...70

IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...
     PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS...30
     TIME OF INITIAL EVENT...2:00 AM
     PROBABILITY OF A TORNADO / F2 OR GREATER TORNADO...10/5
     PROBABILITY OF GOLFBALL HAIL OR LARGER...10
     PROBABILITY OF 73 MPH WIND OR GREATER...20

GIVEN PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN OCCURRENCE
ANYWHERE IN THE DEFINED AREA.

DISCUSSION...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. ELEVATED WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS THIS AFTERNOON.  THE LOW
LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL AID IN SUSTAINING STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
PRIMARY THREAT TONIGHT APPEARS TO BE LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY MORNING AND INTO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A STRONG JET STREAM AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
MAINTAIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE
UPPER SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA AND INTO
ARKANSAS.

.SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...SPOTTER
ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA BY LATE
THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT.

RELATED GRAPHICAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA