Tornadoes and Hail in Oklahoma, March 17, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1105 AM CST MON MAR 17 2003

HIGH BASED SCATTERED SHWRS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE... DRYLINE WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED LATER
THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE OKLAHOMA-TEXAS PANANDLE BORDER. SHOULD SEE
TSTMS ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD
EAST INTO THE FA. QUITE A BIT OF MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONTINUES
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA... WHICH MAY KEEP HOLDS TEMPS A BIT LOWER IN
THE SOUTHWEST. WILL ALSO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING AND
COVERAGE OF PCPN IN THE GRIDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

FCSTID = 32

-----------------------------------------
430 AM CST MON MAR 17 2003

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF
THE AREA AND CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO REDEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING OR THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRYLINE
THE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PART OF AREA AND FIRST VORT MAX
APPROACHES. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR A FEW
SEVERE STORMS BUT WILL NOT MENTION SEVERE IN THE ZONES AT THIS
TIME.  MODELS WANT TO PUSH DRYLINE PRETTY FAR EAST OVERNIGHT DESPITE
IT BEING NIGHTTIME AND WITH AREA BETWEEN VORT MAXES... SO HAVE WENT
WITH DRYLINE FARTHER WEST FROM WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS.  DRYLINE SHOULD PUSH FARTHER EAST AGAIN TUESDAY AS MAIN
UPPER LOW APPROACHES AREA. WILL MAINTAIN POPS UNTIL UPPER SYSTEM
FINALLY MOVES OUT OF THE AREA THURSDAY.

.26.
OKC   76  56  69  46 /  60  60  30  30
HBR   78  49  68  42 /  40  20  10  20
SPS   80  54  72  46 /  40  20  10  20
GAG   75  44  61  38 /  40  30  20  30
PNC   74  55  66  45 /  50  60  40  40
DUA   77  59  73  50 /  40  60  60  40

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-172200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1200 PM CST MON MAR 17 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER RISK WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA COVERS ALL OF NORTHERN...WESTERN...CENTRAL...
AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE MOST ORGANIZED
ACTIVITY WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT AREAS EAST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM
CHEYENNE...TO VERNON AND ARCHER CITY TEXAS.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SMALL THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE... THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE INCREASING
IN STRENGTH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM MOVES INTO WEST TEXAS. THE STRONGEST STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO INITIALLY BE IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... IN THE VICINITY OF A
DEVELOPING DRYLINE. THIS WILL ALSO BE AN AREA WITH HIGHER
INSTABILITIES. THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BY LATE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER HAS RESULTED A SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIRMASS AT
LOW LEVELS OVER OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER... SOUTH
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PULL MORE UNSTABLE AIR NORTH INTO THIS AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST THREAT OF STRONG STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CST TUESDAY MAR 18.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...50 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
STRONG WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO A
HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. AS A DRYLINE MOVES
EAST OUT OF THE AREA...HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST VERSION OF OUR FIRE WEATHER
PRODUCTS FOR MORE INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY...MAINLY OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. BEYOND
TUESDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A
LARGE...SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
AN EXTREME FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AS THE MENTIONED DRYLINE
SURGES FURTHER EAST.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
TUESDAY MORNING.

CJS