Hail in Oklahoma, March 12 to 13, 2003

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
826 PM CST WED MAR 12 2003

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH JUST ISSUED FOR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA...INCLUDING TULSA METRO AREA. THUNDERSTORMS JUST NOW INITIATING
ACROSS NW PORTION OF THE CWA...ALONG A LINE STRETCHING SOUTHWEST
FROM SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS. WILL QUICKLY UPDATE ZONES TO
INCLUDE THE WATCH. WILL ALSO RAISE AREA MINIMUMS ABOUT A CATEGORY AS
IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE CAA WILL LAG FROPA FAR ENOUGH TO HOLD MINS
UP. IN ADDITION...WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER A BIT.

TUL   59   68   43   74  / 60    5    5    5
FSM   60   73   46   74  / 50   20   10    5
MLC   62   72   49   77  / 50   10   10    5
BVO   53   67   37   73  / 60    0    5    5
FYV   57   67   37   71  / 60   10   10    5
BYV   56   64   38   70  / 70   10    5    5
MIO   56   64   39   72  / 70    5    5    5
F10   62   71   46   75  / 50    5   10    5
HHW   64   73   50   77  / 50   30   10    5

FORECAST ID= 06

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-131200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CST WED MAR 12 2003

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
AREA 1...EXTREME NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS...70

IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...
  PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS...70
  TIME OF INITIAL EVENT...700 PM
  PROBABILITY OF A TORNADO/F2 OR GREATER TORNADO...5/2
  PROBABILITY OF GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL OR LARGER...50
  PROBABILITY OF 73 MPH WIND OR GREATER...15

AREA 2...REMAINDER OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS

PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS...40

IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...
  PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS...50
  TIME OF INITIAL EVENT...700 PM
  PROBABILITY OF A TORNADO/F2 OR GREATER TORNADO...5/2
  PROBABILITY OF GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL OR LARGER...40
  PROBABILITY OF 73 MPH WIND OR GREATER...15

DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THROUGH CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A DRY LINE ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES. SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE SOARED INTO THE 50S AND 60S
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE IMPROVING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL
RESULT IN CAPES AROUND 2000 TO 2500 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...A CAPPING INVERSION SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD
EFFECTIVELY LIMIT CONVECTION FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.

INITIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...NEAR THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BUILD
SOUTHWEST-WARD ALONG THE COLD FRONT/DRY LINE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
DURING THE EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT.

IMPRESSIVE WIND SHEAR PROFILES AND INSTABILITY ARE SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS...WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY AFTER 6 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY

GIVEN PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN OCCURRENCE
ANYWHERE IN THE DEFINED AREA.

RELATED GRAPHICAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-130030-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
526 PM CST WED MAR 12 2003

...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
THIS EVENING...

AT 5PM A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDED FROM NEAR KANSAS CITY TO A LOW
PRESSURE AREA NEAR WICHITA.  THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN
SOUTHEAST KANSAS ALONG THIS FRONT...WITH NEW STORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BETWEEN 6PM AND 9PM. THERE
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW OF THESE STORMS TO BE SEVERE...WITH
LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

PERSONS IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA SHOULD PAY ATTENTION THIS EVENING TO
LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR FURTHER INFORMATION FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-130400-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
733 PM CST WED MAR 12 2003

...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
THROUGH THE EVENING...

AT 730 PM A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM NEAR KANSAS CITY TO A LOW
PRESSURE AREA NEAR PONCA CITY.  THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED IN
SOUTHEAST KANSAS EARLIER THIS EVENING ALONG THIS FRONT HAVE
CONTINUED TO SLOWLY BUILD FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD DOWN INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BETWEEN 8 PM AND
10 PM. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW OF THE STORMS TO BE
SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

PERSONS IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA SHOULD PAY ATTENTION THROUGH THE
EVENING TO LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

OKZ054>063-130415-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
812 PM CST WED MAR 12 2003

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS BEING ISSUED FOR NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS BEING ISSUED FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

OSAGE...PAWNEE...WASHINGTON...TULSA...NOWATA...ROGERS...CRAIG...
MAYES...OTTAWA AND DELAWARE.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 35 WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL 2AM.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTH FROM KANSAS INTO
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA DURING THE REST OF THE EVENING.  LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL OCCUR WITH SOME OF THE STORMS.

STAY TUNED TO THIS STATION FOR FURTHER INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.