Tornado and Hail in Kansas, March 12, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
301 PM CST WED MAR 12 2003

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE CONVECTIVE
CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT, ALONG WITH MORE CHANCES THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LOTS OF SUNSHINE HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO SOAR WELL INTO THE 70S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS.  DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE
UPPER 50S, TO NEAR 60.  TEMPERATURES ALOFT ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS
ARE VERY COLD AT AROUND 0C.  THIS WILL YIELD CAPES OF AROUND 2500
J/KG.  A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN INTO KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON
ALLOWING FOR CONVERGENCE.  EVEN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS, CAN NOT
RULE OUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS EVENING.  WILL
TREND POPS TO HAVE LIKELY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS.  WITH COLD
AIR ALOFT AN ADEQUATE WIND SHEER WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME LARGE HAIL
AS THE MAIN THREAT.  THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MOST OF THE
REGION BY MIDNIGHT, SO EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO COME TO AN
END.

AFTER THAT MAY SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP, AS A BIT OF SHALLOW COLD
AIR WILL MOVE DOWN INTO THE REGION, WHICH THE MODELS AS USUAL ARE
NOT HANDLING WELL.  IN FACT TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA
HAVE HELD INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE REGION.  WILL BRING LOW
TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE 30S, TO MID 40S IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST
KANSAS.  UNCERTAIN HOW LONG LOW CLOUDS WILL HANG ON ACROSS THE
REGION IF THEY DO DEVELOP.  IF THEY DO DEVELOP, THEY MIGHT BE SLOW
TO CLEAR, WITH NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS.  EITHER WAY, WILL GO WITH
HIGHS NOTICEABLY LOW THAN GUIDANCE WITH MID 60S IN THE WEST, AND LOW
60S ELSEWHERE.

FRIDAY SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO VERY WARM WEATHER.  LEE TROUGHING WILL
ESTABLISH ITSELF.  THIS COULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO APPROACH 80 IN
THE FAR NORTHWEST, WITH OTHER LOCATIONS HAVING READINGS WELL UP INTO
THE 70S.  WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT, AS LOW
LEVEL JET MAY ALLOW SOME WIDELY SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP.

ANY WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD WIND DOWN EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.  OTHERWISE, VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BEGIN TO CARVE A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.
THIS MAY SEND THE DRYLINE RETREATING BACK INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS,
WHICH IS PRETTY UNUSUAL FOR MARCH.  WITH THIS IN MIND, WILL GO VERY
WARM ON OVERNIGHT LOWS AS DEEP SURFACE MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE.
MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ON THE DRYLINE, MOVE
INTO OUR AREA AFTER 0Z.  MAY ALSO SEE SOME MORE WIDELY SCATTERED
ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING,
WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET.

ON SUNDAY, AN INITIAL DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE THE DRYLINE FURTHER
EAST.  THIS MAY ALLOW FOR MORE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ON THE DRYLINE AND AFFECT OUR REGION SINCE MID LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE STRONGER.  THEREFORE, WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LOW POPS.

NOT MANY CHANGES PLANNED TO THE FORECAST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  THE
DEEP UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN AN INLAND SURFACE BOMB.
ECMWF PROGS A 983 MB LOW THAT COMES ACROSS KANSAS.  TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN, BUT SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET WITH THIS
SETUP.

FCSTID =8/FRANK
ICT   39  63  38  76 /  30   0   5  10
HUT   36  63  40  77 /  20   0   5  10
EWK   37  63  38  76 /  30   0   5  10
EQA   39  63  38  74 /  40   0   5  10
WLD   41  63  38  75 /  40   0   5  10
RSL   34  65  42  79 /  10   0   5  10
GBD   34  66  42  79 /  20   0   5  10
SLN   34  63  40  76 /  20   0   5  10
MPR   37  63  38  76 /  30   0   5  10
CFV   44  63  37  73 /  60   0   5  10
CNU   42  63  37  73 /  60   0   5  10
K88   41  63  37  73 /  60   0   5  10

.ICT...NONE.

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-131200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1048 AM CST WED MAR 12 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE NOTED THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING, GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM INTERSTATE 70 TO AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. VISIBILITIES IN SOME LOCATIONS WILL
BE AROUND 1/4 OF A MILE. THE FOG SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY NOON.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND EAST
OF A LINE FROM SALINA TO COTTONWOOD FALLS TO ANTHONY. THE PRIMARY
THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY NIGHT, AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE REGIONWIDE STARTING SUNDAY, AND CONTINUING
INTO TUESDAY.  THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ON MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, GENERALLY SOUTH OF HWY 70 AND EAST OF A LINE FROM SALINA
TO COTTONWOOD FALLS TO ANTHONY.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ICT/HWO/HWOICT.HTM

HOWERTON/WIGHTMAN