Hail in Kansas, March 12, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
215 PM CST WED MAR 12 2003

CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL HIGHLIGHT SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS.

WARMER AIR HAD SPREAD NORTH INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT STRATUS
LAYER WAS SUPPRESSING TEMPERATURES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI AND
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. EVEN SO EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WERE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. APPARENT WARM FRONT MARKED BY SHARP
DEWPOINT RISES TO THE SOUTH STRETCHED EAST TO WEST JUST SOUTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER. WATER VAPOR DEPICTS A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON.  PROFILERS
SHOW 850 MB WINDS BACKING IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS. INSTABILITY WAS POOLING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE LIFTED INDICES WERE AROUND MINUS 6.  COOLER
AIR REMAINED BANKED UP NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN
IOWA AND NEBRASKA.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO ERUPT OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AFTER 4 PM AS STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING
UPPER DIVERGENCE SPREAD EAST.  STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD EAST
NORTHEAST AND AFFECT PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL KANSAS AND WEST
CENTRAL MISSOURI LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY FOCUS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE EXISTING BOUNDARY THAT
EXTENDS ALONG MISSOURI RIVER.  WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES TO HIGH
CHANCE OR LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. NORTHERN EXTENT
OF THE STORMS WILL BE LIMITED AS THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH BEGINS
TO SAG SOUTHWARD. SEVERE THREAT CERTAINLY THERE ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.  SOME
CONCERN OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE
HELICITIES WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE WARM FRONT.  ACTIVITY WILL
SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT DROPS
THROUGH THE AREA.

COOLER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILDS OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  LATEST MODEL RUNS
HAVE COME IN A BIT COOLER SO WILL LOWER THURSDAY HIGHS A BIT.   WARM
UP RETURNS FRIDAY AS 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE AND RETURN FLOW SETS UP.
HIGHS WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S IF NOT THE LOWER 70S FRIDAY.  THE
PREVIEW OF SPRING WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LATEST GFS RUN
SUGGEST SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS LATE SUNDAY
BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.  I WILL CONTINUE WITH RAIN
CHANCES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A LARGE TROUGH MIGRATES INTO THE PLAIN
STATES.  SEVERE WEATHER WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM.

DUE TO SERVICE BACKUP...GFE GRIDS WILL NOT BE UPDATED.

FOSTER

835 AM...
WILL CANCEL DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS METARS HAVE INDICATED A RAPID
INCREASE IN VISIBILITIES. SATELLITE LOOP AND IOWA METARS SHOW FOG
ALONG THE IOWA BORDER COUNTIES...AND WILL LIKELY COVER THIS WITH A
SHORT TERM FORECAST. AM CONCERNED ABOUT THE LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS
ENTERING THE SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL
NOT MAKE ANY OTHER CHANGES TO THE ZONES AT THIS TIME.

SUTTON

651 AM...
HAVE ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS LOWER
VISIBILITIES (UNDER ONE QUARTER MILE) ARE BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI.
EXPECT THE FOG TO GRADUALLY LIFT BY MID-MORNING.

SCHMIT

239 AM...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AND TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

EARLY MORNING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE ADVANCING COLD
FRONT HAS REACHED THE MISSOURI IOWA BORDER. IN ADDITION...AREAS OF
FOG AND STRATUS THAT DEVELOPED LATE LAST EVENING CONTINUE TO PLAGUE
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. WITHOUT THE PRESENCE OF GOOD
MIXING...AM CONCERNED THAT THE FOG/STRATUS MAY LINGER FOR A LARGE
PORTION OF THE MORNING HOURS...SEVERELY RESTRICTING WARMING. IN
ADDITION...GUIDANCE NUMBERS HAVE BACKED OFF SUBSTANTIALLY ON
PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED HIGHS. AM NOT TOTALLY SOLD ON LOW MAV GUIDANCE
NUMBERS...BUT THE ETA NUMBERS SEEM TOO WARM. WILL AIM IN BETWEEN THE
TWO...WITH NEAR STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING MORNING TEMPS MAKING SOME
HEAD-WAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SOME SUNSHINE IS REALIZED.

NEXT CONCERN FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. CURRENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A VORT MAX OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND
ANOTHER IMPULSE SLIDING OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. THESE TWO FEATURES
WILL BECOME OF LOCAL INTEREST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...AS THEIR ENERGY PHASES TOGETHER AND INTERACTS WITH THE
SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...A SURFACE LOW IS
PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH
INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS/SOUTHERN MISSOURI. BOTH ETA/GFS SOLUTIONS PROG
THE 850 MB THETA-E NOSE AND MAXIMIZED REGION OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
TO NUDGE INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BY 00Z. FORECAST
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...SOME POSSIBLY REACHING SEVERE LIMITS.
ETA/GFS 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 7-8 DEGREES C/KM...AND
LIFTED INDICES AROUND -4 TO -6. WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -20
DEGREES C...THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD BE LARGE HAIL. THINK AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LA CYGNE
KANSAS TO BOONVILLE LINE HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING THIS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...SO HAVE INCREASED POPS THERE...BUT AM NOT
CONFIDENT TO UPGRADE TO LIKELY POPS AS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
HEAVILY RELY ON THE AMOUNT OF WARMING/DESTABILIZATION THAT OCCURS
THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...HAVE PUSHED LOW CHANCE POPS SLIGHTLY
FARTHER NORTH.

ON THURSDAY...HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A CATEGORY OR TWO...AS LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INHIBIT MIXING. ON THE OTHER HAND...HAVE
INCREASED FRIDAY HIGH TEMPS...AS THE COMBINATION OF SOUTHWEST
WINDS...850 MB TEMPS IN THE +13-14 DEGREES C RANGE...AND LITTLE OR
NO CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S AND
LOW 70S AT LEAST.

SCHMIT

930 PM...
ADDING FOG TO SOUTHERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
WHERE RAIN FELL THIS EVENING. WILL MONITOR VISIBILITIES THIS AREA AS
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT IF SKIES TOTALLY CLEAR.

MJ

810 PM...
ELEVATED SCATTERED CONVECTION OCCURRING FROM CLINTON/SZL AREA
EASTWARD BEING AIDED BY VORT LOBE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ON 300K/305K
SURFACES. AS THIS FEATURE PASSES BY EXPECT TO SEE HIGHER CLOUDS
STRIPPED AWAY LEAVING BEHIND LAYER OF STRATUS...EVEN FOG IN AREAS
WHERE IT RAINED. HAVE SLOWED CLEARING DOWN OVER WEST
CENTRAL/NORTHWEST MO WITH NO CLEARING OVER REST OF FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE MINOR TWEAKING. WILL BE WATCHING TREND OF STRATUS/FOG TO
SEE IF I NEED TO BECOME EVEN MORE PESSIMISTIC ON CLEARING TRENDS
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MJ

316 PM...
MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST TODAY HAS BEEN ON OUR CHANCE OF THUNDER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. SECONDARY CONCERN HAS BEEN WITH TEMPERATURES OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

BOTH THE GFS AND ETA HAVE BACKED OFF ON THEIR LIKELIHOOD FOR THUNDER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE ONSET OF RAIN OR THUNDER. THE
PRIMARY REASON FOR THIS CHANGE REVOLVES AROUND THE FACT THAT THE GFS
WAS A LITTLE DRIER FOR TOMORROW...WHILE THE ETA WAS A LOT DRIER
THROUGHOUT THE MID LEVELS.  NEITHER THE GFS OR ETA MODELS HANDLED
THE SURFACE MOISTURE VERY WELL TODAY...BRINGING SURFACE MOISTURE TOO
FAR NORTH TOO FAST. OF THE TWO MODELS...THE ETA HAD A BETTER GRASP
OF THE 850 MB DEWPOINTS. FOR THIS REASONS I HAVE LEANED ON THE ETA
SOLUTION FOR COMPOSING THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST. THE RESULT
HAS BEEN A SCALING BACK OF OUR CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...TO THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA.

GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...I HAVE PUSHED TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS MOST
THE FORECAST AREA. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE
MIDWEST AND WINDS WILL PREVAIL OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. THE 850 MB
TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE 12 TO 14 DEGREE RANGE SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. PROVIDED THERES NOT TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER...I EXPECT TO
SEE TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60 INTO THE MID 70S FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH.

EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK...A EAST PACIFIC SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE NORTHWEST AND BOMB OUT A SURFACE LOW ON LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS.  ALL THE LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A
SIGNIFICANT LOW WILL FORM IN THE UPPER PLAINS AND DIG INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
DISCREPANCIES IN TIMING BETWEEN THE MODELS I HAVE ONLY BROAD BRUSHED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

CUTTER

.EAX...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING FOR ZONES KSZ025...KSZ057...
KSZ060...KSZ102>105.

MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING FOR ZONES MOZ001>008...
MOZ011>017...MOZ020>025...MOZ028>033...MOZ037>040...MOZ043>046...
MOZ053>054.

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-131200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
100 PM CST WED MAR 12 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 24. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH SEVERE
LIMITS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY STORMS OCCURRING
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM OVERLAND PARK TO MARSHALL.

THE PRIMARY RISK FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE
OF QUARTERS.  DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND AN ISOLATED
TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA. AT THIS TIME...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS POSSIBLE.
BE SURE TO MONITOR FUTURE OUTLOOKS FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF A PAOLA KANSAS TO BOONVILLE LINE.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/EAX
OR HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

FOSTER

KSZ026-039-040-055>060-071>073-095>097-099>101-103>105-MOZ028>030-
037>040-043>046-053>056-066>069-077>081-088>091-093>095-130300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT - SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY-PLEASANT HILL MO
ISSUED BY NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
233 PM CST WED MAR 12 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 34...IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CST WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN KANSAS:
LINN...MIAMI...JOHNSON...WYANDOTTE...LEAVENWORTH.

IN MISSOURI:

BATES...CASS...CLAY...COOPER...HENRY...HOWARD...JACKSON...JOHNSON...
LAFAYETTE...PETTIS...PLATTE...RAY...SALINE.

SOME CITIES IN THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH INCLUDE PLEASANTON
...PAOLA...OVERLAND PARK...KANSAS CITY...LIBERTY...RICHMOND...
HARRISONVILLE...MARSHALL...SEDALIA...WARRENSBURG...CLINTON...AND
BUTLER.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
WHILE SEVERE WEATHER MAY NOT BE IMMINENT...PERSONS SHOULD REMAIN
ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND LISTEN FOR LATER
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL MEDIA OR YOUR CABLE
TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

FOSTER

KSZ057-060-103>105-MOZ028>030-037>040-043>046-053-054-130300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT - SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY-PLEASANT HILL MO ISSUED BY NWS
SPRINGFIELD MO
233 PM CST WED MAR 12 2003

...CORRECTED FOR UGC CODING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 34...IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CST WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN KANSAS:
LINN...MIAMI...JOHNSON...WYANDOTTE...LEAVENWORTH.

IN MISSOURI:

BATES...CASS...CLAY...COOPER...HENRY...HOWARD...JACKSON...JOHNSON...
LAFAYETTE...PETTIS...PLATTE...RAY...SALINE.

SOME CITIES IN THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH INCLUDE PLEASANTON
...PAOLA...OVERLAND PARK...KANSAS CITY...LIBERTY...RICHMOND...
HARRISONVILLE...MARSHALL...SEDALIA...WARRENSBURG...CLINTON...AND
BUTLER.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
WHILE SEVERE WEATHER MAY NOT BE IMMINENT...PERSONS SHOULD REMAIN
ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND LISTEN FOR LATER
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL MEDIA OR YOUR CABLE
TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

FOSTER/BOOKBINDER