Hail and Damaging Winds in Oklahoma, June 28, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
130 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2003

THE MAIN STORY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE RAIN CHANCES.  CURRENT
THINKING IS FOR ACTIVITY TO COMMENCE LATER TODAY/TONIGHT.  AMPLE LOW-
LVL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE BUT SHEAR PROFILES ARE WEAK.  ANY ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE SLOW MOVING...POTENTIALLY PRODUCING COPIOUS
RAINFALL AMOUNTS.  OVERNIGHT MCS IN THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS SHOULD
INDUCE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND MOVE INTO THE CWA TOMORROW MORNING.
HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE CWA IS STILL A MATTER OF
QUESTION. THE BOUNDAY WILL SERVE AS THE FOCAL AREA FOR CONVECTION
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AGAIN...SLOW STORM MOTION COULD LEAD
TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.  HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN CHECK
TOMORROW DUE TO THE FRONT AND CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER.  MORE OF THE
SAME ON MONDAY BUT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS.

AS THE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HOVERS OVER THE SW U.S. INSTABILITY
SHOULD DECREASE BEGINNING ON TUE WITH HIGH TEMPS INCREASING INTO THE
90S. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS IN NE NM/SE CO SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
WEST GIVEN THE EXPECTED MID- UPPER-LEVEL NORTH NORTHEAST FLOW.
THEREFORE...EXPECTING A HOT AND DRY WEEK.

FCSTID = 05

AMARILLO    63 87 61 86 / 40 20 40 20
BEAVER      63 86 60 86 / 50 30 40 20
BOISE CITY  60 84 59 83 / 50 30 40 20
BORGER      63 87 61 86 / 40 30 40 20
BOYS RANCH  62 86 60 84 / 40 30 40 20
CANYON      63 87 61 85 / 30 20 40 20
CLARENDON   64 88 62 87 / 30 20 40 20
DALHART     61 85 60 84 / 50 30 40 20
GUYMON      61 85 59 84 / 50 30 40 20
HEREFORD    63 87 61 84 / 30 20 40 20
LIPSCOMB    64 87 61 87 / 40 30 40 20
PAMPA       64 87 61 86 / 40 30 40 20
SHAMROCK    65 88 62 87 / 30 20 40 20
WELLINGTON  65 89 63 87 / 30 20 40 20

.AMA...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-291100-

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
100 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT FOR THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES. THE PRIMARY
THREAT WILL COME FROM LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL COME FROM LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED PRIMARILY FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NUNEZ