Hail and Damaging Winds in Oklahoma, June 10, 2003

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
250 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2003

DISC...
COOL FRONT FROM NEAR MCI > GAG.  UPPER IMPULSE
SHOWING WELL ON SATELLITE.   SPIRAL CONVECTION
FROM UPPER SUPPORT LINKS TO FRONTAL CONVECTION
DIRECTLY OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.75..ALONG WITH THE
LIKELIHOOD OF TRAINING ECHOES WARRANTS A FLOOD
WATCH NORTHERN PORTION CWA.  BEST CHANCE FLOOD
PROBABLY ACROSS NORTHERN TIER NORTHEAST OK AND
EXTREME NORTHWEST ARKANSAS COUNTIES..WHERE FFG
NUMBERS LOWEST AND THUNDER RISK HIGHEST.
SPEAKING OF THUNDER..MID 70S SURFACE DEWPOINTS
ADDING FUEL TO THE CONVECTIVE FIRE.   ENHANCED
THUNDER WORDING ADDED TO GRIDS /ZONES TONIGHT.
FIRST WAVE EXITS STAGE RIGHT WEDNESDAY LEAVING
SOGGY BOUNDARY STRETCHED  LATITUDINALLY ACROSS
THE AREA..AND MORE THUNDER CHANCES.   GW

EXTENDED FRI - NEXT TUE
============================================
NORTHERN STREAM ACTIVE AS H500 MB LOW OFF BC
COAST THRUST NORTHERN SHORT WAVES EAST.  500
RIDGE TRYS TO BUILD FROM SOUTHWEST INTO HIGH
PLAINS SD / NE. UNDERCUTTING SHORT WAVE WITH
CONNECTIONS TO CANADIAN  SHORT WAVE SATURDAY
GETS LEFT BEHIND  OVER OUR REGION FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. PROXIMITY OF WEST > EAST SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY GIVES UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
RESULTANT LITTLE DEFINITION FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

TUL   72   87   72   89  / 70   30   30   30
FSM   71   86   71   88  / 80   50   20   30
MLC   73   87   72   89  / 50   30   20   30
BVO   68   87   68   88  / 80   30   40   30
FYV   68   83   67   85  / 80   50   30   30
BYV   68   83   66   85  / 90   60   30   30
MKO   71   85   72   89  / 70   40   30   30
MIO   68   86   70   86  / 90   40   40   30
F10   72   87   72   89  / 60   30   20   30
HHW   72   87   73   89  / 40   30   20   30

FORECAST ID= 21

.TSA...
AR...FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT ARZ001-002-010-011
OK...FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT OKZ054>063-067-068-069

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-111100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
110 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2003

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
   TONIGHT...
...FLASH FLOODING MAY BE A PROBLEM TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF THE AREA...

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED JUST NORTHWEST OF A
KANSAS CITY TO WITCHITA TO DODGE CITY LINE.  THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
DEVELOPING ALONG THIS FRONT AND MORE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES.  AS THE STORMS ORGANIZE INTO A COMPLEX THEY SHOULD HEAD
SOUTH SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
DURING THE EARLY STAGES OF DEVELOPMENT OF THIS COMPLEX LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING SOME STORMS WILL PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.  EVENTHOUGH WIND FIELDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE...SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE EXTREME
INSTABILITY IN AN EVIRONMENT OF LOWER 70S DEW POINTS AND CAPES OF
3000-4000 J/KG.  AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES THE SEVERE RISK WILL
LESSON AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY.
PRECIPITAL WATERS NEAR 2 INCHES IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORHWEST
ARKANSAS SUGGEST FLASH FLOODING MAY BECOME A PROBLEM.

WARNING PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES CAN BE
FOUND IN THE OUTLOOK SECTION AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA. GIVEN
PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARNING TO BE ISSUED AT
YOUR LOCATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. RAIN CHANCES MAY DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA.

.SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA

OKZ058-102315-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
546 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 615 PM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     OTTAWA

AT 546 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF AFTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...AFTON...FAIRLAND...
WYANDOTTE...OTTAWA AND PEORIA.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH.