Heavy Snow in Oklahoma, December 9 to 10, 2003

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
331 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2003

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS ENDED WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXITING NW
ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...NOW ON TO THE WINTER WEATHER. INITIAL
SURGE OF COLDER AIR MAKING ITS WAY INTO EXTREME EASTERN OK AND THERE
APPEARS TO BE A SECONDARY SURGE PER MESONET DATA NOW WORKING INTO
OSAGE AND PAWNEE. AREA OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH WRAP AROUND BEHIND
UPPER LOW SPREADING INTO THIS AREA AS WELL WITH CHANGEOVER TO -SN
AT PONCA CITY LAST HOUR. LOW APPEARS TO BE TAKING A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH TRACK THAN EVEN 12Z MODELS SHOWED AND WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST TONIGHT. GIVEN THIS...IT APPEARS THAT BEST SHOT OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE ALONG KS BORDER EARLY TONIGHT. HAVE OPTED
TO DROP PORTION OF WSW INCLUDING TULSA METRO...SOME SNOW WILL LIKELY
FALL BUT ACCUM WILL BE SLIGHT IF ANY. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT...POSSIBLE FOR A FEW FLURRIES TO LINGER
OVER NW ARK WED MORNING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO PLUMMET WITH BRISK
NW WINDS. EXPECT SOME SUN BY WED AFTERNOON OVER MOST OF THE AREA...
BUT A COOL DAY NONETHELESS...ANY SNOW COVER COULD HOLD THEM DOWN
EVEN MORE.

NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING CAL COAST WILL BECOME ENTRAINED IN ZONAL
FLOW AND PASS NORTH OF AREA WED NIGHT AND THU...WITH MINIMAL IMPACT
THIS FAR SOUTH. TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT WED NIGHT WITH GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES.

OVERALL MADE FEW CHANGES TO LATER FORECAST PERIODS...BUT SYSTEM FOR
FRI NIGHT AND SAT WILL BEAR WATCHING AS IT TAKES A MORE SOUTHERLY
TRACK. COOL SFC HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND COULD BE OVERRUN BY PLENTY OF
MOISTURE...LEADING TO POSSIBILITY OF WINTRY MIX (FREEZING RAIN?) FRI
NIGHT. MAIN CHANGE TO GOING FORECAST WAS TO ADD SNOW TO NORTHERN
COUNTIES SAT...BUT THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH WARMER TEMPS
MONDAY IN BETWEEN. FOR RIGHT NOW HAVE FOLLOWED SLOWER ECMWF AND HELD
OFF ANY PRECIP UNTIL TUE...IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

PRELIM NUMBERS:

TUL    27   43   24   45 /  70   10   10   10
FSM    31   44   26   47 /  40   10   10   10
MLC    33   47   24   49 /  20   10   10   10
BVO    25   38   19   44 /  80   10   10   10
FYV    26   36   19   44 /  60   20   10   10
BYV    27   36   19   44 /  70   20   10   10
MKO    30   44   23   47 /  50   10   10   10
MIO    27   38   18   43 /  80   10   10   10
F10    29   44   23   48 /  50   10   10   10
HHW    35   47   26   51 /  10   10   10   10

FORECAST ID= 14

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THIS EVENING FOR ZONES OKZ054>058.

SULLIVAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2003

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-101200-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
100 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2003

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA FOR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WAS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AND FAR
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE OCCURRING IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA WITH
SOME LIGHT RAIN BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA FROM THE
WEST.

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON EAST
OF A COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM MIAMI TO MCALESTER AT 1 PM. LIMITED
INSTABILITY HAS KEPT THE STORMS BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END BY 6 PM AS THE
COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA.

WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK...
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS TRACKING A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN
EARLIER EXPECTED SO MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN TO
OUR NORTH IN KANSAS. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS STILL EXPECTED ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44 LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION...MAINLY NEAR THE
KANSAS BORDER. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY /OKCWSWTUL/ REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
THE SNOW WILL END LATER TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
MOVES INTO MISSOURI.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL
BE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE COULD BE A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.