Heavy Snow in Kansas, December 9 to 10, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
126 PM CST MON DEC  8 2003

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DEALING WITH THE
WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY MOVED THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA EXCEPT
IN THE SW WHERE TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED WELL INTO THE 60S THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS GETS GOING IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING WAVE. THIS CYCLOGENESIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY AND WILL CRANK THE WINDS UP ACROSS THE AREA, AND COMBINED
WITH EXPECTED SNOWS, WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.

FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE UPPER WAVE ON WV IMAGERY OVER THE SW US ATTM WITH
-32C 500MB AIR IN ITS CORE AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS
ARIZONA.

THE UPPER WAVE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD WITH UVV MOVING OVER THE
WESTERN PART OF THE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT AND WILL INTENSIFY AS IT
CROSSES THE ROCKIES. PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN SHORTLY AFTERWARD ACROSS THE
WEST AND THEN SPREAD ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE CWA BY TUESDAY MORNING.
THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE PRECIP TYPE, AT LEAST INITIALLY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WARM LAYER IN 800-700MB LEVEL OF ABOUT 4-5C THAT
HAS TO BE COOLED IN ORDER FOR SNOW TO BEGIN. THINKING IS THAT IT WILL
START AS RAIN OR SLEET FOR A BRIEF TIME ACROSS THE WEST BEFORE THE
DEEPER COLD AIR MOVES IN AND CHANGES IT TO SNOW. THIS CHANGE OVER
WILL OCCUR LATER FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE CWA WITH MED LODGE SEEING A
CHANGE OVER BY 18Z TUESDAY.

AS THE WAVE MOVES TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES ON TUESDAY
MORNING, THE ETA SHOWS SOME PRETTY STRONG 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. IN PAST STORMS WITH STRONG
BAROCLINIC DEVELOPMENT, THE ETA TENDS TO BE TOO FAR TO THE SE WITH
THE FEATURES AS THE SYSTEM WRAPS UP SO RAPIDLY THAT THE TRACK IS
FARTHER WEST. SO WE COULD SEE SOME INTENSE FRONTOGENETIC SNOW BANDS
DEVELOP FROM DDC EASTWARD DURING THE MORNING TUESDAY. ELEVATED
CONVECTION COULD ALSO OCCUR WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE
WHICH WOULD FURTHER ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES.

SO, IN A NUTSHELL, FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL GO WITH 2-4 INCHES
ACROSS THE NW TO 4-7 INCHES ACROSS THE E AND SE. EVEN WITH SNOW
AMOUNTS NOT REALLY REACHING WINTER STORM WARNING CRITERIA, FEEL
THAT WITH 30-40 MPH WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT
BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW AND REDUCED VSBYS. SO WILL GO WITH A
WINTER STORM WARNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH NEAR BLIZZARD LIKE
CONDITIONS AT TIMES. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION AND ISSUE A BLIZZARD WARNING IF INDEED THE CRITERIA IS
MET LATE TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY.

MADE LITTLE ADJUSTMENT TO THE TEMPS, AND WILL GENERALLY GO COLDER
THAN THE MODELS WITH EXPECTED SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND.

ALSO UPDATED WIND GRIDS TO RAISE SPEEDS, ESPECIALLY SINCE THE META
IS USUALLY TOO LOW IN THAT DEPARTMENT.

DAYS 3-7...

FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THIS EXTENDED PERIOD ARE CHANCES FOR MORE
SNOW WITH NEXT UPPER SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.

EC AND GFS SHOWING A STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING IN ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE EC IS A BIT SLOWER. WILL ADD SOME SMALL POP
FOR SNOW ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR BEST GUESS IN TIMING.
OTHER THAN THAT LOOKS LIKE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS IN THE 40S, WITH 30S
SATURDAY WITH CLOUDS AND SOME SNOW. FORECAST 850 TEMPS BELOW -2
CELSIUS SO LOOKS TO BE ALL SNOW ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT FORECASTABLE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

DDC 27 29 17 32 / 90 90 00 00
GCK 24 28 13 32 / 90 90 00 00
EHA 25 30 15 33 / 70 80 00 00
LBL 27 30 17 33 / 80 90 00 00
HYS 27 28 18 32 / 90 99 00 00
P28 31 31 20 34 / 80 99 00 00
&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS
OF WEST CENTRAL AND ALL OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&

LACY/06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1125 AM CST MON DEC 8 2003

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-091200-
BARBER-CLARK-COMANCHE-EDWARDS-ELLIS-FINNEY-FORD-GRANT-GRAY-HAMILTON-
HASKELL-HODGEMAN-KEARNY-KIOWA-LANE-MEADE-MORTON-NESS-PAWNEE-PRATT-
RUSH-SCOTT-SEWARD-STAFFORD-STANTON-STEVENS-TREGO-
1125 AM CST (1025 AM MST) MON DEC 8 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WINTER STORM SYSTEM CROSSING THE ROCKIES TODAY WILL MOVE OUT INTO
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHEAST
COLORADO WILL SINK SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TODAY AND INTENSIFY BRINGING A
SURGE OF COLD AIR SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. AS THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM
MOVES IN, RAIN WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER THIS EVENING
AND SPREAD EASTWARD. THE RAIN COULD CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF FREEZING
BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THE SNOW
WILL CONTINUE INTO MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY WITH TOTAL SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 4 TO 7 INCHES AND WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. STRONG NORTH WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE WINTER STORM WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING TUESDAY LEAVING WIDESPREAD AREAS OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

06