Damaging Wind in Oklahoma, August 19, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
739 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2003

UPDATE FIXING TO BE SENT...REMOVED WORDING FOR SVR TSTRM WATCH FROM
ZONES AND UPDATED POP AND ASSOCIATED GRIDS TO REFLECT ONGOING
WEATHER.  WENT AHEAD AND UPPED TO CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ZONES TAPERING OFF INTO TOMORROW MORNING SINCE S/W STILL
ROTATING ACROSS PER WV IMAGERY.  SHOULD HAVE LINGERING SHOWERS AFTER
STORMS DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

FCSTID = 17/JORDAN

...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 202 PM...

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE THIS AFTN IN
RESPONSE TO WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE TROF EXTENDING FROM SW
KS SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN NM.

THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS
WESTERN NE. WHILE MAIN ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW REMAINS
NORTH...IT APPEARS THAT A WEAK VORT MAX WILL SWING AROUND THE BASE OF
THE LOW AND ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF CWA TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL STORMS
ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT APPROACHES THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES THIS
EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO FORM FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN NM
ALONG SURFACE TROF AXIS AND PERHAPS MOVE INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
TX PANHANDLE. WILL KEEP THE PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE ENTIRE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. DONT FEEL
I CAN RULE OUT SHOWERS LINGERING OR POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT.

UPPER LOW TO MOVE EAST WED. CHANCES FOR TSTMS WILL BE LESS LIKELY
ON WED...HOWEVER WITH A FEW STORMS MAY ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ALONG
THE NEARLY STATIONARY SFC TROUGH. SO WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTMS ACROSS NW HALF OF THE PANHANDLES.

MODELS INDICATE A WEAK FRONT TO ENTER THE AREA IN THE LATE THURSDAY
TO EARLY FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. GFS IS MORE AMBITIOUS WITH A FASTER MOVING
AND STRONGER FRONT...WHILE ETA OOZES THE FRONT INTO THE AREA EARLY
FRI. DONT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION EITHER WAY...BUT
EASTERY SFC FLOW SHOULD MODERATE TEMPS A BIT. THIS IS ALREADY
REFLECTED IN CURRENT FORECAST. ETA BREAKS OUT SOME PRECIP ACROSS
THE AREA FRI AFTN WITH BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA...SO WILL INSERT 20
POPS AREA WIDE LATE FRIDAY AND FRI EVENING.

SUMMERTIME TEMPS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
MADE TO MIN TEMPS NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH MINS
OF LAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS.

FCSTID = 09

AMARILLO    70 96 69 94 / 20 20 20 10
BEAVER      70 100 69 96 / 20 20 20 10
BOISE CITY  64 95 63 93 / 30 20 20 10
BORGER      74 98 73 96 / 20 20 20 10
BOYS RANCH  66 95 65 94 / 20 20 20 10
CANYON      69 96 68 94 / 20 20 20 10
CLARENDON   71 98 70 96 / 10 10 10 10
DALHART     64 95 63 94 / 30 20 20 10
GUYMON      70 100 69 96 / 20 20 20 10
HEREFORD    67 96 66 93 / 20 20 20 10
LIPSCOMB    71 100 70 96 / 20 20 20 10
PAMPA       70 97 69 95 / 20 10 10 10
SHAMROCK    73 99 72 97 / 10 10 10 10
WELLINGTON  73 100 72 97 / 10 10 10 10

.AMA...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-200200-

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
245 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY GENERATE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND EXTREME NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
AND EXTREME NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

GARCIA