Damaging Wind in North Carolina, May 31, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
355 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2003

COLD FRONT MAKING STEADY PROGRESS NOW INTO AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AND
VOLATILE SOUTHEAST REGION. DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 NOW (FROM LOWER 50S
EARLIER TODAY) ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA. SHEAR REMAINS
SIGINFICANT. FOR ALL OF THE RAPID CHANGES THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE HAS
UNDERGONE...IT SHOULD BE A SHORT-LIVED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
TORNADO WATCH FOR OUR EASTERN ZONES EXPIRES AT 7 PM...AND WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR UPSTATE...AND INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR...THIS
EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND WITH SUBSIDENCE...COLD
ADVECTION AND TIGHT GRADIENT...WILL KEEP WIND ADVISORY UP TONITE FOR
THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...BUT PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WILL
INDICATE WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS EVENING ONLY ALL OTHER AREAS. LOTS
OF OTHER INTERESTING METEOROLOGY...BUT RUNNING LATE AND JUST DO NOT
HAVE TIME TO MENTION MUCH ELSE.

MODELS FASTER WITH RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.
HAVE INTRODUCE POPS FOR LATE MONDAY NOW FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...FAR WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE FAR WESTERN MOUNTAINS
OF NORTH CAROLINA LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCE POPS ALL ZONES
MONDAY NITE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A FEW PERIODS WITH MINIMAL CHANCES
OF RAIN THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

FCSTID =   44
GSP   54  80  54  78 /  20   0   0  20
AND   56  81  54  79 /  20   0   0  30
CLT   55  80  53  79 /  30   0   0  20
HKY   52  75  51  75 /  30   0   0  20
AVL   50  72  48  73 /  20   0   0  20

.GSP...
GA...WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS EVENING FOR ZONES
GAZ010...GAZ017>018...GAZ026...GAZ028>029.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT FOR ZONES
NCZ033>037...NCZ048>059...NCZ062>072...NCZ082.
WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS EVENING FOR ZONES
NCZ034>037...NCZ054>057...NCZ066>072...NCZ082.
SC...WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS EVENING FOR ZONES SCZ001>014...SCZ019.

BURRUS

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-311200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
559 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...

A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND IT/S ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING SOME SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. FOR FURTHER DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...SPSGSP...ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE.

A WIND ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN POSTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
FOR FURTHER DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST WIND ADVISORY
...NPWGSP...ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

EXPECT A DAILY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY.

55

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-312230-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1201 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2003

...SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA...

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN VIRGINIA
BY EARLY EVENING. A STRONG COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS OVER THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA WILL RAPIDLY DESTABILIZE THIS
AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE SURGES NORTH...AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE MOIST
AIR...COUPLED WITH VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS...WILL CREATE A THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER ALOFT THAN ORIGINALLY
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...ACROSS UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...TO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT
IN NORTH CAROLINA...STARTING IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS.
ONCE THE STORMS DEVELOP...THEY WILL MOVE EAST AT SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF
50 MPH.

THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
PIEDMONT...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM HARTWELL
GEORGIA...TO GAFFNEY SOUTH CAROLINA...TO TAYLORSVILLE NORTH CAROLINA.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE THOSE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH CAUSE LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES.  MANY SEVERE WEATHER
PARAMETERS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR MAXIMUM
INTENSITY...AND GIVEN THE RIGHT TIMING...THERE WILL A THREAT OF
ISOLATED TORNADOES IN THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT...ALONG AND EAST
OF I-77...WHERE THE WIND FIELDS WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS.

SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO ACTIVATE QUICKLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. DISPATCHERS SHOULD ENSURE COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE AWARE OF THIS INFORMATION.

MCAVOY

NCZ068>072-082-SCZ008-009-312000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED EXP TIME
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
313 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2003

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE I-85 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON...

THROUGH 4 PM...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT...FROM JUST EAST OF
SHELBY...TO DOWNTOWN CHARLOTTE...TO CONCORD AND KANNAPOLIS...TO
SALISBURY. SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL...AND SOME CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS.

THE POTENTIAL REMAINS QUITE HIGH FOR SOME OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME
SEVERE. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THESE STORMS FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS IN THE
NEAR FUTURE. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE PIEDMONT OF
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

LANE