Lightning Strike in North Carolina, May 31, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
400 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2003

HAVE BEEN WATCHING DEEP CONVECTION BLOSSOM ACRS N TN AND S KY
WITHIN WAA REGIME AND STRENGTHENING LLVL WESTERLY JET. THIS AREA
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST TOWARD THE NC MTNS THRU
DAYBREAK. SHOT OF LARGE SCALE LIFT AND A BAND OF DEEPER RH PROGGED
TO MAINTAIN THIS THREAT OF TSTMS AS IT TRANSLATES EAST ACRS THE
CWFA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. PASSAGE OF ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
TO FOLLOW A FEW HOURS BEHIND THIS FEATURE...BUT EXPECTED TO
CLEAR THE EASTERN FRINGES OF CWFA BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. ALL THROUGH THE DAY...STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR
PROFILE WILL PREVAIL...GIVING RISE TO THE CONTINUED THREAT OF
ORGANIZED SVR TSTMS...POSSIBLY SPAWNING FROM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER AIR FEATURE LATER THIS MORNING OR ALONG COLD FRONT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AT ANY RATE...HAVE ISSUED SPS TO ADDRESS
THREAT.

AN ADDITIONAL CONCERN FOR LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GRADIENT WIND GUSTS. LATEST ETAKIT SOUNDINGS
INDICATING 45 KT WINDS ATOP MIXED LAYER...SO WILL HOIST WIND
ADVISORY FOR ALL AREAS STARTING THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD
COINCIDE WITH COLD FROPA ALONG WITH INCREASE IN SUBSIDENCE.
PLAN TO JUST LET IT RUN THROUGH TONIGHT TO COVER EXTENDED THREAT
ACRS MTNS WHEN STRONGEST LLVL NW WIND MAX ROTATES IN.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...GRADIENT EXPECTED TO LOOSEN DURING
SUNDAY AS MODEL T/H X-SXNS INDICATE VERY DRY AIR THROUGH A DEEP
LAYER. ETA MODEL BECOMING MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN ADVECTING DEEPER
RH NE WITHIN A STRENGTHENING WAA PATTERN. PREFER TO STICK TO
SLOWER AND DRIER GFS...BUT EVEN THIS MODEL DEVELOPS PCPN BACK
INTO THE CWFA MONDAY NIGHT. SO AT THIS JUNCTURE...HAVE TRENDED
SKY GRIDS MORE PESSIMISTIC THRU THIS PERIOD BUT LEFT THINGS DRY.

FCSTID =  55
GSP   82  56  80  52 /  40  20   0   0
AND   83  56  80  52 /  40  20   0   0
CLT   84  57  80  51 /  50  20   0   0
HKY   80  54  77  49 /  50  10   0   0
AVL   76  49  73  47 /  60  10   0   0

.GSP...
GA...WIND ADVISORY ALL ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
NC...WIND ADVISORY ALL ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SC...WIND ADVISORY ALL ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-311200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
559 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...

A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND IT/S ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING SOME SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. FOR FURTHER DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...SPSGSP...ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE.

A WIND ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN POSTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
FOR FURTHER DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST WIND ADVISORY
...NPWGSP...ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

EXPECT A DAILY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY.

55

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-312000-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
356 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2003

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TODAY IN THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA...

AN UNUSUALLY STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM...FOR SO LATE IN THE
SEASON...WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION TODAY. INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR AT AND NEAR THE
SURFACE...COMBINED WITH MUCH COLDER AIR ALOFT AND VERY STRONG WIND
FIELDS...WILL CREATE A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY WILL LIKELY REACH THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING...AND COULD STILL BE STRONG. AS THE ATMOSPHERE HEATS UP
DURING MID DAY...SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE ACROSS THE
NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. THE WIND ENERGY THROUGH THE
LOWER AND MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY STRONG ACROSS
THOSE AREAS.

A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM NORTHEAST GEORGIA...ACROSS
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...TO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT IN NORTH
CAROLINA.  THE SUPPLY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO BE BEST IN
THESE AREAS.

THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WILL BE IN THE
PIEDMONT...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM HARTWELL
GEORGIA...TO GAFFNEY SOUTH CAROLINA...TO TAYLORSVILLE NORTH CAROLINA.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE THOSE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH CAUSE LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES.  THE THREAT TODAY WILL
INCLUDE ALL THREE FORMS OF SEVERE WEATHER.  MANY OF THE SEVERE
WEATHER PARAMETERS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR MAXIMUM
INTENSITY...AND GIVEN THE RIGHT TIMING...DANGEROUS AND DAMAGING WIND
STORMS AND TORNADOES COULD OCCUR.

YOU SHOULD LISTEN FREQUENTLY TO WEATHER BROADCASTS TODAY FOR LATEST
FORECASTS...UPDATES...AND SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES OR WARNINGS WHICH
MAY BE ISSUED.  COUNTY AND CITY COMMUNICATION CENTERS SHOULD ENSURE
EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS OFFICIALS ARE BRIEFED ON THIS SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL.

JONES